What is pace speed class handicapping?

[thaskalos]

I realize that the "man made" class structures are imprecise...but that does not mean that "class = speed vs. pace".

The concept of class is REAL...even if it only exists in the minds of the horsemen. The horses routinely fail to reproduce their usual pace and speed numbers when they are raised in class...and the reason is not that they are overmatched in the higher classes. For some reason, they fail to run their usual races outside of a given class level.

People often say that author Mark Cramer is one of the most knowledgeable, most creative handicappers around...and I agree. What was one of his greatest contributions?

He created a simple "system" that remained profitable for years...which called for betting on class droppers with favorable jockey switches. Cramer's assertion was that the "classier" horses intimidated their seemingly "faster" competitors with a "glance"...speed and pace figures be damned.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Cramer's assertion was that the "classier" horses intimidated their seemingly "faster" competitors with a "glance"...speed and pace figures be damned.

This is where I part ways with the old style class handicappers.

I think there are real tangible differences in ability among horses that account for these things. The reason that cheaper horses sometimes can't duplicate their usual pace and final time figures when they move up in class is that the better horses are actually faster in short bursts and have deeper reserves (even though it's difficult to measure).

What happens when the horses come out of the gate together is that the classier horse is capable of a quicker burst and can sustain it just long enough to torch the cheaper horse and take control. Then the cheaper horse drops back and dies. In the cheaper races the cheaper horse is not asked for as much for as long "between calls".

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This is where I part ways with the old style class handicappers.

I think there are real tangible differences in ability among horses that account for these things. The reason that cheaper horses sometimes can't duplicate their usual pace and final time figures when they move up in class is that the better horses are actually faster in short bursts and have deeper reserves (even though it's difficult to measure).

What happens when the horses come out of the gate together is that the classier horse is capable of a quicker burst and can sustain it just long enough to torch the cheaper horse and take control. Then the cheaper horse drops back and dies. In the cheaper races the cheaper horse is not asked for as much for as long "between calls".

I respectfully disagree. I have observed countless front runners going up in class to face seemingly paceless fields. In the vast majority of such cases, the "outclassed" horse - eventhough it faces practically no "real" competition for the early lead - takes the lead only briefly...and then gives up the lead, without exhibiting its apparent pace and final time advantage.

When given a seemingly insignificant drop in class in its next start...the horse often "rediscovers" its form...and runs a much improved effort.

My theory is that the difference might be attributed to trainer intent...

(I hope 46zilzal doesn't bite my head off for saying this... )

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I respectfully disagree. I have observed countless front runners going up in class to face seemingly paceless fields. In the vast majority of such cases, the "outclassed" horse - even though it faces practically no "real" competition for the early lead - takes the lead only briefly...and then gives up the lead, without exhibiting its apparent pace and final time advantage.

When given a seemingly insignificant drop in class in its next start...the horse often "rediscovers" its form...and runs a much improved effort.

My theory is that the difference might be attributed to trainer intent...

(I hope 46zilzal doesn't bite my head off for saying this... )

anthropomorphizing is indeed alive and well

OFTEN those horses scream that they will not last by simply high %median

Once the gates open the trainer has NOTHING to do with the race NADA, NICHTS ZIP

[46zilzal]

One of the things cognitive psychologists promote as a fallacy is the way people superimpose "meaning" to things that may be correlated but have NEVER been shown to be causative...The NARRATIVE FALLACY

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

anthropomorphizing is indeed alive and well

OFTEN those horses scream that they will not last by simply high %median

Once the gates open the trainer has NOTHING to do with the race NADA, NICHTS ZIP

Luckily...the reply was not as scathing as I anticipated...

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by BIG HIT

If you are saying pace spd equal class.Then how come the man made class structure stake hdcp alw clm win on the drop lower class more often than not reguardless and usually not pace or spd horse not to mention that the fastes pace and spd same class or moveing upclass to new high don't win at same rate as droppers.Explain please i'am open to other opioins.

Class in my opinion can not be measured or written onto any equation; it can only be post race determined.

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I respectfully disagree. I have observed countless front runners going up in class to face seemingly paceless fields. In the vast majority of such cases, the "outclassed" horse - eventhough it faces practically no "real" competition for the early lead - takes the lead only briefly...and then gives up the lead, without exhibiting its apparent pace and final time advantage.

When given a seemingly insignificant drop in class in its next start...the horse often "rediscovers" its form...and runs a much improved effort.

My theory is that the difference might be attributed to trainer intent...

(I hope 46zilzal doesn't bite my head off for saying this... )

Not trainer intent, but "hidden" internal fractions. Higher-class horses can start and stop during a race. Take a first quarter for example. A cheap front runner might be able to run the first eighth in 11.0 and the quarter in 22.2, whereas a higher class animal might run 10.4 and rate to a 22.2 first quarter. When the cheaper horse faces this classier animal, the first eighth discourages him (and often the jockey) from an attempt at the lead and he is ineffective as a presser and fades from the picture altogether. This, despite exactly the same 22.2 first quarter split. Even when the classier animals allow him the lead, their quicker bursts allow them to take him any time they want and once passed, he'll throw up the white flag.

This example is very simplistic and I believe that even smaller splits, such as sixteenths of a mile and even less are fraught with "race within the race" implications.

Because of this, I have harped until I'm blue in the face on this forum that class affects speed. Some believe me, some don't.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by markgoldie

Not trainer intent, but "hidden" internal fractions. Higher-class horses can start and stop during a race. Take a first quarter for example. A cheap front runner might be able to run the first eighth in 11.0 and the quarter in 22.2, whereas a higher class animal might run 10.4 and rate to a 22.2 first quarter. When the cheaper horse faces this classier animal, the first eighth discourages him (and often the jockey) from an attempt at the lead and he is ineffective as a presser and fades from the picture altogether. This, despite exactly the same 22.2 first quarter split. Even when the classier animals allow him the lead, their quicker bursts allow them to take him any time they want and once passed, he'll throw up the white flag.

This example is very simplistic and I believe that even smaller splits, such as sixteenths of a mile and even less are fraught with "race within the race" implications.

Because of this, I have harped until I'm blue in the face on this forum that class affects speed. Some believe me, some don't.

I would normally agree with you Mark...but we are not talking about drastic class rises here.

We are talking about one level class rises and drops...where the "real" difference in the abilities of the horses is almost neglegible.

You mean to tell me that a horse can "destroy" a field of $10,000 claimers...and then - when it finds itself in a $12,500 race in its subsequent start - it "fizzles out" badly, eventhough it has the best "figures"...only to destroy another $10,000 field after that?

And I am supposed to believe that it has nothing to do with trainer intent?

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

And I am supposed to believe that it has nothing to do with trainer intent?

you have been watching too many movies like Salty O'Rourke and Boots Malone

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

you have been watching too many movies like Salty O'Rourke and Boots Malone

Zil...you claim to be an "insider" in this game...and you have never seen a case where a trainer "influenced" the outcome of a race?

Or are you one of those insiders who are sensitive about the game's integrity issues?

[exiles]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Zil...you claim to be an "insider" in this game...and you have never seen a case where a trainer "influenced" the outcome of a race?

Or are you one of those insiders who are sensitive about the game's integrity issues?

THASKALE
EHI POLOUS KEIMISMENOUS EDO

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Zil...you claim to be an "insider" in this game...and you have never seen a case where a trainer "influenced" the outcome of a race?

Or are you one of those insiders who are sensitive about the game's integrity issues?

NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE to the perception the public has. Small changes in tactic, equipment etc but manipulating the result? You would be amazed how often I hear the trainer IN THE WINNER'S CIRCLE call up the owner and apologize for his/her not knowing the horse could win that day.

I will take that back, good old George Cummins, a great claiming trainer pulled an abscessed tooth on a horse that had not won in two years and was called in to talk to the stewards at which time he just held out the tooth.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE to the perception the public has. Small changes in tactic, equipment etc but manipulating the result? You would be amazed how often I hear the trainer IN THE WINNER'S CIRCLE call up the owner and apologize for his/her not knowing the horse could win that day.

I hate to agree with Zilly, but I think he's right on this count.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I respectfully disagree. I have observed countless front runners going up in class to face seemingly paceless fields. In the vast majority of such cases, the "outclassed" horse - eventhough it faces practically no "real" competition for the early lead - takes the lead only briefly...and then gives up the lead, without exhibiting its apparent pace and final time advantage.

When given a seemingly insignificant drop in class in its next start...the horse often "rediscovers" its form...and runs a much improved effort.

My theory is that the difference might be attributed to trainer intent...

(I hope 46zilzal doesn't bite my head off for saying this... )

I agree that trainer intent can be a factor as could a random change in form, but those kinds of thing aren't related to what's happening between well intentioned horses that are ready to fire a good race. In the latter case the classier animal often simply accelerates (sometimes between calls) and puts some heat on the cheaper horse. The cheaper horse can't cope with that level of short term challenge without getting drained and tires.