Golden Gate to close?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Northern CA doesn't deserve their own circuit? Why? Too close to LA (400 miles) or population too low (about 8 million in Bay Area)?


At the rate the industry is consolidating we will be down to one track nationally which will run mechanical horse races. Consolidation will necessarily bring fewer foals, fewer qualified workers, fewer trainers, fewer jockeys, and fewer people interested in racing.

It's not a matter of what anyone deserves. There aren't enough horses for two circuits. We could have, and should have, split the dates between GGF, DMR, and SA so there would have been one circuit in 2014, and refused to give dates to LOSAL. But the Southern California horsemen begged for the Los Al meet, which they then completely ignored and didn't enter their horses in.

But no, Northern California is not generating enough revenue to justify its own racing circuit. That sucks- Northen California has a tradition of horse racing back to 1933 and has seen Seabiscuit, Noor, Citation, and John Henry run there. But deserve's got nothing to do with it.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

You'll have to ask them. My source is at a very high level. Nothing looks good for California Racing.

Because Stronach concluded what has been obvious for years, there's only enough horses and revenue for 1 circuit. That means one Stronach track has to close.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by AndyC

So you believe or are being told that continued No. CA. racing will mean the demise of Santa Anita? That seems completely illogical.

I believe it has something to do with simulcast money. They want it all sent to southern California. That's my best guess

[Bustin Stones]

Outside of Arlington and Hollywood, the 35-40 closures since 2000 have been tracks that feature $5,000 claiming races.
If a Class A baseball league shut down, would many people care? Is the health of the racing world dependent on having so many more of these level races?
Let's back away from the panic button.
A bunch of slow horses fighting over an $8,000 purse isn't exactly must see activity. And we still have plenty of that remaining if that's your cup of tea.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Because Stronach concluded what has been obvious for years, there's only enough horses and revenue for 1 circuit. That means one Stronach track has to close.

Agree with the one circuit point however completely disagree with the assertion that one Stronach track has to close.

To give some context, Saratoga itself would have closed unless some long-term vision (Mary Lou Whitney) was employed. Here again, we have the chance to show some vision in California, but instead the "get rich quick" school will sell the land for a capital injection at the expense of the sport. Sure, "Stronach cares". Tell me that I have this wrong?

Yet, the Stronach Group could make this right - instead, the Group is acting like a REIT rather than being part of their self-proclaimed "Champions of the Breed".

Killing GGF will put a dagger into the entire fair circuit as the horses and the horsepeople will need to move elsewhere to sustain the sport. Most of the GGF backstretch will be bound for anywhere except the West Coast.

Stop hoping for a "CalExpo Savior" since saving the thoroughbreds will gut the harness horsemen.

Convince me that Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Los Alamitos can form a sustainable circuit. Despite being an "East-Coast-Guy", I have been to all three and love their charms (particularly Del Mar and Los Al). But the trio forms an uncomfortable partnership and you might be wishing Dr. Allred lives forever fairly soon.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

It's not a matter of what anyone deserves. There aren't enough horses for two circuits. We could have, and should have, split the dates between GGF, DMR, and SA so there would have been one circuit in 2014, and refused to give dates to LOSAL. But the Southern California horsemen begged for the Los Al meet, which they then completely ignored and didn't enter their horses in.

But no, Northern California is not generating enough revenue to justify its own racing circuit. That sucks- Northen California has a tradition of horse racing back to 1933 and has seen Seabiscuit, Noor, Citation, and John Henry run there. But deserve's got nothing to do with it.

They certainly have the population to sustain a circuit in No.Cal. When I use the term "deserves" I don't mean that they are entitled to a circuit. They deserve to succeed or fail on their own. There was only a small percentages of horses that actually ran on both circuits. Has Santa Anita slipped so much that they are now dependent on the low level horses that comprise most No Cal cards?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

At the rate the industry is consolidating we will be down to one track nationally which will run mechanical horse races. Consolidation will necessarily bring fewer foals, fewer qualified workers, fewer trainers, fewer jockeys, and fewer people interested in racing.

I understand where you are coming from, but if owners are getting buried financially, trainers are struggling, tracks can barely operate on their current revenue base unless they are getting casino money, and the land is very valuable for development, exactly what options are there other than closing down the poorest performing tracks and hoping some of the horses and handle migrate to one of the healthier tracks and improves the overall situation there?

You need a highly positive ROIC to generate the free cash needed to invest for growth. We can say we need growth, but how do you generate it without cash.

Of course in this case, as I said earlier, even if some of the better horses and some handle migrate to SA, that's like giving a blood transfusion to a hemorrhaging person before you even stop the bleeding. It may delay the death, but it won't save the patient.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Outside of Arlington and Hollywood, the 35-40 closures since 2000 have been tracks that feature $5,000 claiming races.
If a Class A baseball league shut down, would many people care? Is the health of the racing world dependent on having so many more of these level races?
Let's back away from the panic button.
A bunch of slow horses fighting over an $8,000 purse isn't exactly must see activity. And we still have plenty of that remaining if that's your cup of tea.

Let's assume you are correct. When the breeding industry produces horses that fall through the Maiden Claiming $20,000 open class at NYRA during December-January-February, where do you suggest that those horses are sent?

The reason that these "Class B" tracks exist is to sustain the industry as a whole. Your commentary illustrates that you just don't give a damn about the bottom levels which is an absolutely fine opinion.

Just remember that those who want to shut down the whole sport will come after you on your weakest link. You are telling them where to attack.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Outside of Arlington and Hollywood, the 35-40 closures since 2000 have been tracks that feature $5,000 claiming races.

That trend is likely to continue.

The people operating in a sustainable fashion are generally located at the top of the game. Even if they are losing money, they have the wealth to keep going despite the losses if they love the sport.

IMO, we are slowly moving towards the model I was predicting here years ago.

We are going to keep breeding the best horses in the same numbers, but the middle will shrink a bit and the bottom will slowly go away. In the end we'll have a smaller number of horses, way fewer tracks, but with generally higher caliber racing in vacation and other attractive destinations. Maybe a few tracks for horses that can't handle the competition at the top will also survive. The surviving tracks will handle way more money per race/entry, the economics of those tracks will be better, field sizes larger, purses per race will be much higher, and there will even be an opportunity to lower the track take and invest in then future if there are competent people in charge and there is the political will to do so.

That's a pessimistic view of the future for a LOT of people because many of them will lose their living in racing in coming years. But it's an optimistic view of the future if there is enough competency in the industry to turn it around once it is right sized. If there isn't, kiss this sport good-bye in the US. What happened to harness racing will happen to thoroughbred racing. It will slowly wither away.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Let's assume you are correct. When the breeding industry produces horses that fall through the Maiden Claiming $20,000 open class at NYRA during December-January-February, where do you suggest that those horses are sent?

The reason that these "Class B" tracks exist is to sustain the industry as a whole. Your commentary illustrates that you just don't give a damn about the bottom levels which is an absolutely fine opinion.

Just remember that those who want to shut down the whole sport will come after you on your weakest link. You are telling them where to attack.

Very good.
And add to that the plummeting foal crop really magnifies the importance of these so-called "Class B" tracks.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I understand where you are coming from, but if owners are getting buried financially, trainers are struggling, tracks can barely operate on their current revenue base unless they are getting casino money, and the land is very valuable for development, exactly what options are there other than closing down the poorest performing tracks and hoping some of the horses and handle migrate to one of the healthier tracks and improves the overall situation there?

You need a highly positive ROIC to generate the free cash needed to invest for growth. We can say we need growth, but how do you generate it without cash.

Of course in this case, as I said earlier, even if some of the better horses and some handle migrate to SA, that's like giving a blood transfusion to a hemorrhaging person before you even stop the bleeding. It may delay the death, but it won't save the patient.

We agree. The model doesn't work, it is a financial disaster. I am challenging the position that a major contraction or consolidation will somehow cure all that ails the racing industry. I think it makes things a lot worse.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Outside of Arlington and Hollywood, the 35-40 closures since 2000 have been tracks that feature $5,000 claiming races.
If a Class A baseball league shut down, would many people care? Is the health of the racing world dependent on having so many more of these level races?
Let's back away from the panic button.
A bunch of slow horses fighting over an $8,000 purse isn't exactly must see activity. And we still have plenty of that remaining if that's your cup of tea.

35-40 closures?

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by AndyC

We agree. The model doesn't work, it is a financial disaster. I am challenging the position that a major contraction or consolidation will somehow cure all that ails the racing industry. I think it makes things a lot worse.

I agree with you. I think we have 30 years of evidence that contraction hasn't done a thing to improve the racing industry. It certainly hasn't increased field size, or made for a more attractive gambling product.

The financial model is broken in several ways. Simulcasting didn't kill racing but instead of saving it, the way the fees were divided ended up slowly choking the industry. All of these topics are connected and none have easy solutions.

The horses that run at Golden Gate may, in the very short term, increase field sizes at various West Coast tracks. But what we've seen over the last 20-30 years is that those owners and breeders just won't breed as many horses. So within one cycle of horses we'll be right back where we are now, or worse.

[showonly]

With an exception of the Del Mar summer meeting would an end to live racing on the west coast including Arizona be a definite negative to the national health of racing and would it make Delmar inviable.

[Al Gobbi]

Originally Posted by showonly

With an exception of the Del Mar summer meeting would an end to live racing on the west coast including Arizona be a definite negative to the national health of racing and would it make Delmar inviable.

If Santa Anita ever closes it’s probably the end for any racing on the west coast - MAYBE Del Mar can give it a shot but it’ll be an uphill battle for a short boutique meet like they have.