RIP to Mongolian Groom and CA Racing

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

what is the rate? when you work out the percentages its 0.286%, which is very low in my opinion.

the difference is 5 horses over 10,000 starts. I mean, feels very acceptable to me.

Highest breakdown rates on any turf course in the country probably won't be "very acceptable" to most though, especially when it's supposed to be top-quality racing and horses.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Highest breakdown rates on any turf course in the country probably won't be "very acceptable" to most though, especially when it's supposed to be top-quality racing and horses.

While the faster pace style of West Coast turf racing could logically cause a slightly higher breakdown rate, it's also very likely that the national data is extremely flawed/incomplete/inaccurate.

The idea that both turf courses are the 'highest breakdown rate' in the country seems highly improbable.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Highest breakdown rates on any turf course in the country probably won't be "very acceptable" to most though, especially when it's supposed to be top-quality racing and horses.

Can you provide other courses please, NYRA, CD and GP. Would make for a more realistic comparison.

Saying something is highest rate when the % is 0.28 needs context.

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

what is the rate? when you work out the percentages its 0.286%, which is very low in my opinion.

the difference is 5 horses over 10,000 starts. I mean, feels very acceptable to me.

The rate is death per 1000 starts, the same as it is for all the fatality stats.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Can you provide other courses please, NYRA, CD and GP. Would make for a more realistic comparison.

Saying something is highest rate when the % is 0.28 needs context.

the stats also claim that 0.231 is the highest (or 2nd highest to the downhill)... it's BS, even allowing for the fast pace style.

[delsully]

Originally Posted by FenceBored

From the Jockey Club's Equine Injury Database reporting for calendar years 2009-2018 ten year totals:





course starts / died / rate

main turf: 15,593 / 36 / 2.31

downhill: 10,809 / 31 / 2.87


The two worst turf courses among those making their data public.

Thanks, the rate is a lot closer than I expected.

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Can you provide other courses please, NYRA, CD and GP. Would make for a more realistic comparison.

Saying something is highest rate when the % is 0.28 needs context.

CD doesn't make the data available publicly for any of their tracks through the EID.


Here's the ten year total EID data for 2009-2018 for tracks which make their data public (excluding the California Fair Circuit). I posted a variation of this last spring when the 10th year data became available which also excluded tracks/surfaces that are no longer used. Unlike that one, this one has Hollywood, the Aqueduct inner dirt, and the various synthetics that have gone back to dirt. Darker colors are a second course of that type (e.g. Bel/Sar inner turf, SA downhill turf, Aqu inner dirt).

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by FenceBored

CD doesn't make the data available publicly for any of their tracks through the EID.


Here's the ten year total EID data for 2009-2018 for tracks which make their data public (excluding the California Fair Circuit). I posted a variation of this last spring when the 10th year data became available which also excluded tracks/surfaces that are no longer used. Unlike that one, this one has Hollywood, the Aqueduct inner dirt, and the various synthetics that have gone back to dirt. Darker colors are a second course of that type (e.g. Bel/Sar inner turf, SA downhill turf, Aqu inner dirt).

Ok, thanks.

feels like on average its about 1 horse per 1000 more in socal than other places. So averaging 8 horses per race (that may be high) thats 125 races and 1 more horse dies.

I know I am a cold heart'd son of a bitch but thats a number I can live with and sleep at night.

[horsefan2019]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Intresting article and makes sense.

Yes, all this would change North American racing. It would be slightly different, but it would be modernized, more progressive, more sanitized, and more virtuous than it is now.

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/a...ed-harm-horse/

Some of the items on that list can't be changed.
Like the track configuration. Also dirt racing is mostly in North America so that won't be going away either, maybe synthetics will make a comeback at more tracks, but seems like the drug problem is a much easier and cheaper fix.

[BarchCapper]

Wow. That 10 year chart makes it look like ALL of Southern California is a very difficult location to maintain a grass course whose safety parallels its counterparts elsewhere in North America.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Wow. That 10 year chart makes it look like ALL of Southern California is a very difficult location to maintain a grass course whose safety parallels its counterparts elsewhere in North America.

We always had bad turf courses here. Del Mar's was OK when it was just a summer meet, but Hollywood Park's tore up really easily and was like running on a pool table even when it was in good shape, and Santa Anita used to pour gallons of sand in it to absorb moisture which made it very dirt-like.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

We always had bad turf courses here. Del Mar's was OK when it was just a summer meet, but Hollywood Park's tore up really easily and was like running on a pool table even when it was in good shape, and Santa Anita used to pour gallons of sand in it to absorb moisture which made it very dirt-like.

I am all for a ban on turf racing.

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Ok, thanks.

feels like on average its about 1 horse per 1000 more in socal than other places. So averaging 8 horses per race (that may be high) thats 125 races and 1 more horse dies.

I know I am a cold heart'd son of a bitch but thats a number I can live with and sleep at night.

A good way to look at it, in my opinion is to translate the rate back into "one death per X starts" (1000/rate). For the regular turf course that is 1000/2.31=433 and for the downhill 1000/2.87=349. Therefore on average one out of every 349 starters on the downhill course was fatally injured between 2009 and 2018 and one in every 433 on the main turf course.