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Old 02-18-2021, 01:13 PM   #1
Partsnut
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Horse Race Advantage (Due Column) Calculator

I recently viewed a video on YouTube That featured a type of a due column
betting calculator (system) in conjunction with a suggested horse rating for any race you chose to play races at whatever tracks were being offered.
I believe it was offered by subscription.

The name of the site was "Horse Racing Advantage".
The system looked reasonable Ii you were a single horse win bettor and your bankroll could survive a protracted losing streak.


I was wondering what happen to them and whom among this board may have have had some dealings or experiences with them.

Last edited by Partsnut; 02-18-2021 at 01:14 PM.
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Old 02-19-2021, 11:51 PM   #2
acorn54
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each event is independent of each other. in the words of harvey pack,"the only thing that's due in horseracing is a pregnant mare".
just saying, wouldn't want anymore people to lose their money on that betting scheme.
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Old 02-20-2021, 06:47 AM   #3
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A betting system will never turn -EV picks into +EV, you're just screwing around with the distribution of returns and in the longrun youre going to have the same return %.

Other things im hearing about not playing short price horses because they are a short price and instead to wheel them in exotics is god awful. It's the fav/longshot bias idiotic notion that allow losers to think a horse that goes off at even can't possibly be +EV. And on top of that somehow a horse not worth it in win pools is worth it in exotics is crazy.

Now using recovery type bankroll management you have a big problem in NA racing...the fact that 30-50% of the pool comes in at the final minute, so you can't assume odds. Oh and this idiot says if the odds go up it's to your advantage; nope people who are smarter then you have bet other horses, your bet is really -EV.

You've been on this board for 16years, cmon man you should know better than this.
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Old 02-20-2021, 11:05 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onesome View Post
A betting system will never turn -EV picks into +EV, you're just screwing around with the distribution of returns and in the longrun youre going to have the same return %.

Other things im hearing about not playing short price horses because they are a short price and instead to wheel them in exotics is god awful. It's the fav/longshot bias idiotic notion that allow losers to think a horse that goes off at even can't possibly be +EV. And on top of that somehow a horse not worth it in win pools is worth it in exotics is crazy.

Now using recovery type bankroll management you have a big problem in NA racing...the fact that 30-50% of the pool comes in at the final minute, so you can't assume odds. Oh and this idiot says if the odds go up it's to your advantage; nope people who are smarter then you have bet other horses, your bet is really -EV.

You've been on this board for 16years, cmon man you should know better than this.
You sir, are right on the money here.

And you said it exactly right.
Quote:
A betting system will never turn -EV picks into +EV
A betting strategy CAN change your ROI but cannot cross over from a negative to a positive (or vice versa).
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Old 02-20-2021, 03:26 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onesome View Post
A betting system will never turn -EV picks into +EV, you're just screwing around with the distribution of returns and in the longrun youre going to have the same return %.

Other things im hearing about not playing short price horses because they are a short price and instead to wheel them in exotics is god awful. It's the fav/longshot bias idiotic notion that allow losers to think a horse that goes off at even can't possibly be +EV. And on top of that somehow a horse not worth it in win pools is worth it in exotics is crazy.

Now using recovery type bankroll management you have a big problem in NA racing...the fact that 30-50% of the pool comes in at the final minute, so you can't assume odds. Oh and this idiot says if the odds go up it's to your advantage; nope people who are smarter then you have bet other horses, your bet is really -EV.

You've been on this board for 16years, cmon man you should know better than this.
Partsnut asked about a website from the past, and if anyone had any experience with it.
Everyone knows due column betting is a farce--referring to it as "recovery type bankroll management" in an attempt to sound intelligent is just a waste of words.

"A horse not worth it in win pools is worth it in exotics is crazy".

That is just too dumb to comment on...come on, man. You've been here for two years--you should know they are separate pools, with differing betting value in exotics.

Your lecturing and name calling impress no one.
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Old 02-22-2021, 05:44 PM   #6
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IMO, Onesome saying if a horse isn't worth it in the win pool it's also probably not worth it in exotics is a real good rule of thumb. Exceptions apply but I don't waste time looking for them.
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Old 02-22-2021, 06:39 PM   #7
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My point is...a pick 4 or 5 sequence, whatever, sometimes you look at an 8/5 ML fav that looks to be right on top of his game. I wouldn't make a win bet on that horse, but I'm not going to eliminate him from my tickets because I wouldn't bet him to win, alone.

It's doubtful you'll cash many exotic bets if you go through the card and delete anyone you wouldn't make a straight win bet on.
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Old 02-22-2021, 09:16 PM   #8
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one thing i never liked about the pik 4 or pik 5 is the fact that one is betting into a "blind" pool. you have to take it on faith that you will be in the black at the end of the year.
there is no way to know the winnings collected if you correctly pik all 4 or all 5 horses.
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