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Old 01-07-2021, 08:18 AM   #1
Half Smoke
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I've changed my strategy...stop the presses..(~:\

..........................


yes, I posted a few weeks ago that I was quitting betting racing but that hasn't happened................surprise surprise surprise

except for very big races where I like betting on a very strong horse................I've changed my strategy

I will no longer pick one horse that I like.................
instead I will bet against the fave
when I see a fave that's odds on - 3/5 or 4/5 that is way undeserving IMHO

to do that I will have to predict that late money will take him down that low - or close to that low - he probably won't be that low when I bet him - predicting this is often not very hard to do

I will dutch 3 or 4 horses against the fave picking those that I think have the best chance to beat him



comments?



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Old 01-07-2021, 09:12 AM   #2
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I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:

1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three

Betting under any other circumstances is just wishiful thinking in my opinion
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Old 01-07-2021, 10:48 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:

1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three

Betting under any other circumstances is just wishiful thinking in my opinion
+1 on all that.
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Old 01-07-2021, 11:13 AM   #4
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.....................



so if you guys see a fave at 3/5 and you think he should be no better than 3/1
but you don't see any particularly great bet among the others then -


you would pass the race?

correct?



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Old 01-07-2021, 12:22 PM   #5
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What evidence do you have that the horses that go off at 4/5 that you think s/b 3/1 win at a rate closer to your line vs the market?

If anything I probably be more willing to bet on those 4/5's you think should be 3/1
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Old 01-07-2021, 04:47 PM   #6
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What evidence do you have that the horses that go off at 4/5 that you think s/b 3/1 win at a rate closer to your line vs the market?

If anything I probably be more willing to bet on those 4/5's you think should be 3/1

Sir, I don't really understand your question
to me, handicapping is not about evidence it's about opinions
there are all sorts of things that can go into forming your opinion - all of the things that a horseplayer learns over time

I also don't understand why you say you're so willing to bet on 4/5s

it's possible a 4/5 could be good bet no doubt

it's also possible that for a variety of reasons he could be overbet

I don't know why a handicapper would accept the odds on the tote as being the true odds after the takeout is factored out

if the tote always reflected true odds on every horse then a player could never get an edge because of the takeout - the takeout would grind him down



obviously, you don't think much of my strategy
that's fine - there are dozens of ways to strategize


Good Luck - in whatever your ways are


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Old 01-07-2021, 08:46 PM   #7
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Oh I'm more certain now with that response I would book your action.

It's more than likely the opinions you have are worthless, a fantasy created in your head as a feeble attempt to try bring order to chaos in the world (well at least the world of horse racing).

You are probably like 95% of players on this forum, their simulcast or maybe one day, at the track. They open up their form of choice and tunnel in the horse with the best recent form, flashy figs and dominant early speed. Your action is predictable.

What is not predictable, are what the top 5% of players doing, the people who always seem to have just a little more info then you and me, who see races differently and are on the horses that people like you scratch their heads about reviewing the form while this player is in line to cash his ticket. They are the ones betting a horse you think should be 3/1 to 4/5.

Unfortunately with no fixed price bookies or exchanges in America, these better players are in the shadows for a long time to a point where it's tough to follow. A little easier in the overseas market.
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Old 01-07-2021, 09:37 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
..........................


yes, I posted a few weeks ago that I was quitting betting racing but that hasn't happened................surprise surprise surprise

except for very big races where I like betting on a very strong horse................I've changed my strategy

I will no longer pick one horse that I like.................
instead I will bet against the fave
when I see a fave that's odds on - 3/5 or 4/5 that is way undeserving IMHO

to do that I will have to predict that late money will take him down that low - or close to that low - he probably won't be that low when I bet him - predicting this is often not very hard to do

I will dutch 3 or 4 horses against the fave picking those that I think have the best chance to beat him



comments?



*
When you bet on those 3 or 4 horses against the prohibitive favorite...will your total monetary investment be much greater than what you'd be normally willing to bet in a race? IMO...what destroys most dutch bettors is their overconfidence. They are so sure that one of their 3 or 4 dutched horses will defeat the prohibitive favorite...they end up betting much more on the race than what their bankroll can safely afford.
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Old 01-07-2021, 11:39 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:

1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three

Betting under any other circumstances is just wishiful thinking in my opinion
Great post. If winning money were as simple as sniffing out weak chalks, even passably competent handicappers could quit their day jobs. But speaking just for myself, merely hating a popular favorite just has not afforded a profitable edge unless one of the "overlays" genuinely appeals in its own right. Thus I've come to interpret the impulse to "dutch" as a self-admission that antipathy toward the chalk is my ONLY workable insight to the race, so I just say no.

Last edited by mountainman; 01-07-2021 at 11:51 PM.
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Old 01-08-2021, 02:10 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
When you bet on those 3 or 4 horses against the prohibitive favorite...will your total monetary investment be much greater than what you'd be normally willing to bet in a race? IMO...what destroys most dutch bettors is their overconfidence. They are so sure that one of their 3 or 4 dutched horses will defeat the prohibitive favorite...they end up betting much more on the race than what their bankroll can safely afford.

first, thank you for the tone of your post
thank you for not implying that I'm an idiot
you are truly a gentleman

the answer to your question is no, my monetary investment will not be much greater than I'd normally willing to bet

I'm not, as you say, sure that one of my dutched horses will beat the prohibitive fave. I also am well away that I will sometimes get beat by an un-included shot

I'm well acquainted with variance

I came to betting horses after many years counting cards at blackjack

(I used to spend the whole day walking up and down the boardwalk in Atlantic City - casino hopping - so my face would not be recognizable)

I had literally whole days where I lost everywhere I went, experiences way beyond my mathematical expectation

and literally whole days where everywhere I went I won - as if an angel sat on my shoulder

so no, I have no illusions about my method being a magic pill

but it's fun to try something new and see how I will do




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Old 01-08-2021, 02:38 AM   #11
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....................


too late to edit the above post but...............

correction - when I wrote something new

I meant new for me

I'm well aware that many others have done this before me





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Old 01-08-2021, 03:45 AM   #12
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..........................



the image is from Barry Meadow's latest book
it shows that odds on horses lose about half the time

for this strategy to be successful - I believe - the user has to be able to handicap so that the odds on horse he picks to bet against loses more often than that








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Old 01-08-2021, 05:01 AM   #13
thaskalos
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first, thank you for the tone of your post
thank you for not implying that I'm an idiot...
I've done so many dumb things myself that I'm practically disqualified from implying that anyone else is an "idiot".
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Old 01-08-2021, 11:04 AM   #14
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club membership

So what do you say we start a club for people that have done some or many stupid things but are not idiots................

FOR BEGINNERS I NOMINATE MYSELF (STUBALL) AS A CHARTER MEMBER

CARRY ON
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Old 01-08-2021, 11:56 AM   #15
PhantomOnTour
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So what do you say we start a club for people that have done some or many stupid things but are not idiots................

FOR BEGINNERS I NOMINATE MYSELF (STUBALL) AS A CHARTER MEMBER

CARRY ON
I’m not eligible for membership in this club...I’m clearly overqualified
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