So now, Who is the Favorite for the Derby?

[jay68802]

Been a while since there was no clear cut favorite. Getting interesting.

[f2tornado]

I'm gonna guess Essential Quality will be a 5/2 favorite followed by Rock at 4-1 then Known Agenda at 6-1 or so.

[jay68802]

I will take Known Agenda at 6/1. Neither of the other.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not sure I like anyone at this stage. I think Medina Spirit is probably better than he looks on paper off his last, but I'm not sure he has the kick to finish at 10F and I don't expect him on the lead. I have to watch the replays and look at my notes again.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm gonna guess Essential Quality will be a 5/2 favorite followed by Rock at 4-1 then Known Agenda at 6-1 or so.

Based on this, 65% of the money bet will be on those three horses, and everyone else will be, pretty much, north of 20:1. Not even remotely possible.

[ReplayRandall]

I see a couple of horses that are moving forward and getting bet hard overseas....

Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Based on this, 65% of the money bet will be on those three horses, and everyone else will be, pretty much, north of 20:1. Not even remotely possible.

I beg to differ but I'm not Battaglia and won't complain if I'm wrong. I'll get more bang for my wagering buck that way. I think the ML will take it's share of money this year as it has in recent years. I fully expect half the field to be north of 20-1. There are some real slugs in this renewal.

In 2014 you had Chrome at 5/2, Wicked Strong at 6-1, and Danza at 9-1. I'd argue the three chalks this year are a little closer together and also standout from the crowd more.

In 2015 you had AP just shy of 3-1, Dortmund at 4-1, and Carpe Diem at 7-1. There were five other horses that year with odds between 9 and 16-1. I think the 2021 field resembles this field. I think 2015 had a scratch or two. Fine. Let's make EQ 3-1 instead of 5/2 and make Hidden Agenda 7-1 instead of 6-1.

In 2016 it was Nyquist a little over 2-1, Exaggerator 5-1, and Gun Runner 10-1. I don't think any horse stands out as strongly as Nyquist and I'm having a hard time thinking either the SA or FL winners will be anywhere near 10-1.

2017 did not have a strong favorite with Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry around 9/2 followed by several horses in the 6 to 10-1 range. I don't think 2021 fits this bill but it's not implausible given EQ closed as an overlay in last couple future wager pools.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I beg to differ but I'm not Battaglia and won't complain if I'm wrong.

That's very big of you

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by the little guy

That's very big of you

Why don’t you post your odds estimate on the top three instead of trolling?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Why don’t you post your odds estimate on the top three instead of trolling?

Pointing out that you’re inaccurate doesn’t constitute trolling. I explained why you were wrong.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Why don’t you post your odds estimate on the top three instead of trolling?

However, my guess is Essential Quality will be 3:1 to 4:1, extremely likely the favorite, with the second choice around 6:1. This could be a year where workouts affect things more than other years. Hard to be sure who the second and third choices will be, as we aren’t even certain now about a number of the possible contenders. However, this is hardly a clearly defined group.

I remember when a lot of people that Magnum Moon, the undefeated Pletcher horse, was going to be second or third choice and he ended up around 14:1, likely due to workout reports. This group is highly competitive on paper....more than I think a lot of people realize right now.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm gonna guess Essential Quality will be a 5/2 favorite followed by Rock at 4-1 then Known Agenda at 6-1 or so.

the favorite might be something like 5-1.... that is going to make SUPER STOCK lower than 12-1. a matter of fact, SUPER STOCK might be a higher price than the 2 horses that he beat in the Arkansas Derby.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Been a while since there was no clear cut favorite. Getting interesting.

Yea, as others have said, Essential Quality is likely the favorite.

I'd guess TLG is close with about 3:1 or so.

He's undefeated. He's already a little overrated and underlayed and he's the cleear Points leader for a supertrainer. California Chrome went off 5:2 his year. It's distantly possible he'll be that low.

Rock Your World seems likely 2nd choice at around 6.5:1. I wasn't crazy about him, but he has a big fig, and a fairly big following, and a catchy name.

Juggle; Known Agenda, Highly Motivated, Concert Tour, Medina Spirit around that 10:1 or so mark. If one of Baffert's horses work with some jaw-dropping fail-to-tire gallop-out, they could even be lower than 10:1, but as of now this group seems like that next level.

Hot Rod Charlie and Silver Stock maybe after that.


A lot can change with workouts, injuries, hype, steam, etc...

[dryrunguy]

Essential Quality may be overdue for a subpar effort.

I was super impressed by Rock Your World's last out. But I am still trying to figure out if the actual performance was really that impressive or if I was more impressed by it because I'm a crappy handicapper and wasn't expecting it.

At this point, it feels to me like the most wide open Derby in some time.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not sure why Rock Your World isn't being considered as a close 2nd choice in the betting. Essential Quality was the 2yo champion that remains undefeated. So he'll get more reputation money. But Rock Your World will be faster coming in on some figures, beat Medina Spirit soundly, and was pretty hyped going into the SA Derby before jumping up like he did.

I'm not making a case for betting either of them, but I think the odds may be closer than people think. If anything (penning run backs), I'll be against Rock Your World because I thought inside and speed might have been better at SA that day, but I don't think that's a big part of the thinking out there generally even if I am right. Either way, he looks good enough to take a lot of money also.