Yuvetsi 8th Santa Anita

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

So just to sum it up....

If you play into these pools and are not getting a rebate your pretty much a sucker?

Not a sucker. Such a harsh word. Somebody that has no chance of winning long term. But remember that racing is "entertainment", no different than going to a Basketball game or Hockey game or Movie or even Disneyworld. People pay to be entertained. You just have to get in the mind of a racing executive to understand how this works. They are not suckers they are given entertainment for their wager.

You see that racing believes that to build handle you give all the profits to a dozen or so betting groups and anyone else that can bet enough to earn a sizable enough rebate to turn a profit (and of course lives in the right state). This is the lifeblood of the sport and without this money there is no sport. Get with the program. Let's not look at the facts (that this sport did over 50% more handle it currently does when the rotten experiment began and the dollar was worth a heck of a lot more than it is worth today). Of course that is apple to oranges. You see racing was practically the only game in town back then and now racing has so much competition. So rather than compete with this competition (you know eliminate rebates, bring the takeout to comparable rates of the competition, give people a good product-competitive fields of 8+......), racing has a much better idea. Let raise the takeout. After all our core customers (The rebated ones) will bet just as much since they will be rebated more to offset the increased takeout, and the rest, you know the ones that understand that you have to pay to be entertained, well they will just pay more. After all seats to a Yankees game, or Lakers game or even your local movies are going up all the time. Racing has every right to raise it's prices too. As far as the saps are concerned, you know the ones that bring their family to the track for a day of entertainment, who cares about them, they don't even know what the takeout is and means. They are being entertained.

Meanwhile the public supports this small group of Whales/sharps in the name of entertainment. Not only will they(public) lose long term but they have no idea what odds they are getting on any bet they make. That 4-1 sure looked attractive while they were loading the gate, of course when the horse wins, the payoff is typically about $6.20. But remember they are saps. They probably think that they are smart because they knew when the horse was 4-1 that he was the most probable winner and had the smarts to bet him anyway. Moreover, that longshot winner they might have bet at 20-1+ was only 13-1 as they were loading the gate and unbeknownst to them, he was going to jump to 30-1 after the race went off. Our player now has the joy of saying "if I had only known he was going to be 30-1, I might have bet him, I am so smart".

Now let's talk numbers. I will ignore breakage. Assume 10 billion is the typical American handle(it is about 7 or 8 % more than that). Whales/sharps account for 20% of those pools(personally I think it is more-but I think that was the number thrown around in another discussion). Blended takeout is around 20% or 2 billion. The Whales/sharps blended loss on all bets is maybe 3%(pre rebate). The Whales/Sharps will lose .3 Billion. Thus the takeout for the public is losing 1.97 billion/8 billion bet so the public is losing about 24.6%. With all the lines ironed out as I discussed above, they are going to lose 20-30% on the dollar typically depending on their skill level.

Now what happen if racing were to shift to a 8% wps, 10 % exacta and 12%
exotic takeout. Obviously these numbers are an educated guess but I feel the reduction in takeout will lead to a wash as far as how much the Whales bet(they would now have to make a profit instead of a loss to win but the lower take gives them ample opportunities to do so. Assuming the first year the public bets 10 billion again (obviously all numbers would go up proportionately very quickly), the whales will bet their same 2 billion. So now the blended takout would be 10%, the Whales would make 5% on their
2 billion or .1 billion and the takeout would be 1 billion+.1 billion(whales profit)/8 billion or 1.1/8 or a blended takeout of about 13.75% for the public. Given the betting options racing offers, racing would transform from being one of the worst gambles for most to being amongst the best gambles for most. 13.75% takeout with all the entrants in a horse race and betting options in raceing is certainly on par with a 4.5% takeout in a 2 team sporting event in my opinion. Unbeatale games aren't even in the conversation.


Would this make everybody a winner, hell no Far from it.. But it will give the sharpest a mountain they can climb, not Mount Everest. It will give the public very fun game that they will lose their money at a reasonable rate not like they are being pick pocketed every time they walk up to a betting window. The more the public gets back, the more in turn they can churn, the longer they are able to stay in the game and want to stay in the game. The sharpest in the crowd is able to climb the mountain and starts betting more and more over time. The more the public bets the more whales are able to bet. Without rebates crw doesn't knock all the potential profit out of the game and best of all the odds shifts while still there are not nearly as big as they currently are. Everybody wins and no not a trophy. They win with a game that is fun again for everyone. Best of all, ultimately racing reaches height is could have never reached otherwise (and I mean profit wise not just handle wise) .........Then of course I wake up and I look at todays product

To anyone who thinks I am wrong about excessive takeout and rebates, I ask, how long can you subject your core fan base to 20 to 30 % roi losses before you chase them away? If they are millionaires than yes it is entertainment and they probably don't care. But most millionaires did not get that way by being stupid and subjecting themselves to being ripped off. . But for the masses who are living paycheck to paycheck, is there any place for horse race betting with an expected loss of 20 to 30%. How to you call that competing? What are they losing betting sports, or playing poker or blackjack or slots? 2%, 5%, 10%?

As far as breakage, it is completly idiotic and just another tax on the consumer. If the sport really wanted to grow the first thing they would do is to eliminate breakage. If the payout is 6.57, it is not rocket science for the clerk to pay out $6.00 plus a 57 cent voucher. At the end of the day the bettors cash in all their vouchers.


To racing's credit they have pretty much kept their fan base up. Since 2008 there on track attendance is about the same year to year.

According to the jockey club here are the year to year handle stats

http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8


However from 2008 to 2016 on track handle dipped 30% (maybe people on track betting with ADWS acccounting for some of this, but off track handle has dipped 20%). Now I doubt whales are betting less, I assume that they are betting more, so I assume that with that 20% drop in off track handle there is a greater than 20% loss in revenues(some whales get their deals directly with the host track). Now it does seem to have bottomed out. 2011 to 2016 off track handle is about the same year to year. Revenues/profits obviously I am not privy to. Maybe in racing's eyes they feel they have won the battle. Obviously don't know about 2017, but 2011 to 2016 was fairly consistent.

My argument is that if racing was done correctly it would be beatable, legal and extremely easy access (the last 2 it has). You dont have to drive to a casino, bet illegally with an offshore bookmaker or a corner bookie (all this might change of course and then racing will really be up the creek), and you don't have to be a computer geek to compete as I assume you do in DFS (I would rather watch paint dry then participate in DFS-so I know little about it). Funding is a piece of cake. For that reason racing should be head of the class (something that for some reason escapes this industry) and the only thing that keeps it from succeeding is the fact that only a tiny percentage of people playing the game have any chance of utilizing it's biggest strength of being beatable. All because of one stupid decision they hang onto year after year after year................rebates.

But back to the post I am responding to. What kind of legitimate business would run a gambling game and make their fan base suckers, especially in a pari mutuel game that there sole job is the run the races, make sure everything is fair, and pay out the winners ("Hey I have a poker game tonight, 9 guys will be there, but the game will be rigged so that only me and my buddy Joe will win, want to join us") But racing has basically set up a rigged game. It is not rigged in outcomes being fixed but it certainly is rigged so that the masses have virtually no chance of winning long term (unless they hit a major score) and will typically lose well beyond the takeout.

Forget the stupidity of what they are doing, what they are doing is downright criminal (not in a legal sense) but in a moral sense. We organize a
boycott because a track raises it's takeout, but when the track sets up a
playing field that is comepletey unfair to the masses(and we have had this for what 20 years now), we don't say a peep. "Adapt or Die", "Get your own rebates", "Build your own CRW" , "move to another state" "they can get rebates too they just need to be smarter" "they will just blow their money on the slot machines anyhow". I know the last time I brought up moraility in this forum it went over splendidly, but think about it anyhow (and then you can clean up the coffee that just splurted out of your mouth).

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I don't have a problem with their wagering methods or goals. They are taking advantage of the environment in place. Who wouldn't do the same if they could?

I would. You would. We all would.

We would all like to be the Tom Brady of the NFL too...or the LeBron James of the NBA...but there are only a few of those types of successful athletes...

I'm not blaming the people I'm blaming the industry and it's one of the things that must be changed to grow the game IMO

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Question...how do you think these operations are able to get their bets in "after the rest of us?"

Clearly, you don't think they're actually betting after the race goes off....do you?

If not, then they aren't actually getting it in AFTER the rest of us.

So what do you think they are doing? Putting the bet in when half the gate is loaded? Do they have timed algorithms for each track...so when a certain percentage of the gate is loaded, they put the bet in...

How do you think they do it?

These are genuine questions I have for those who keep telling me they are getting their bets in after the rest of us.

I don't know how they are doing it...but I see it being done. When I place my bet as late as I am capable of placing it, and the odds on my horse are 6-1, and I see the odds change to 4-1 as the horses are rounding into the stretch, and 3-1 when my horse is heading to the winners circle...am I wrong in deducing that certain bettors were able to place their bets AFTER I placed mine? I honestly think that "the rest of us" are operating under a wagering time-delay...which the mega-bettors are allowed to bypass.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I don't have a problem with their wagering methods or goals. They are taking advantage of the environment in place. Who wouldn't do the same if they could?

I would. You would. We all would.

We would all like to be the Tom Brady of the NFL too...or the LeBron James of the NBA...but there are only a few of those types of successful athletes...

I don't blame the whales either. I blame the TRACKS...for not knowing which side their bread is buttered on. They went to bed with the whales...at the risk of losing the "rest of us". But, HEY...maybe they could interest us in their slots.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Ian Meyers

In my corporate career, I was an asset securitization (a way to move/fund assets off of a company's balance sheet) specialist for money center banks and investment banks. When counseling senior treasury execs about the pros/cons I'd point out that once you start securitization you can't stop because the (accounting) gains you recognize up front turn into losses as the bonds pay down. I believe CAW is similar. Racing got hooked on the gains (as a way to stabilize falling handle) and now can't quit it because handle would fall to $6 billion.

And I use my real name because I'm not afraid to. I never hide behind fake names. Ever. I'm not saying that's always been wise but I'm not afraid to say something and have everyone know I said it.

I'd like to put what you've said here to a test. As it happens, I too have become friendly with someone who is part of a "Whale operation"...and he tells me that these whales are not being charged the breakage that the rest of us bettors are forced to pay. Is this "knowledgeable" friend of mine telling me the TRUTH...or is he lying to me? And, if he is telling me the truth...is this a "fair advantage" for the Whale to have?

[PaceAdvantage]

Big customers always get better treatment...back in the grocery days, if a big time customer/supplier of yours wanted something nobody else was getting, bet you thought long and hard about giving it to them, right?

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I'd like to put what you've said here to a test. As it happens, I too have become friendly with someone who is part of a "Whale operation"...and he tells me that these whales are not being charged the breakage that the rest of us bettors are forced to pay. Is this "knowledgeable" friend of mine telling me the TRUTH...or is he lying to me? And, if he is telling me the truth...is this a "fair advantage" for the Whale to have?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Big customers always get better treatment...back in the grocery days, if a big time customer/supplier of yours wanted something nobody else was getting, bet you thought long and hard about giving it to them, right?

The Whales get their "deep discount" when they get their REBATES. Do they need to have their breakage-charge waived too?

And, when I ran my grocery stores...ALL my customers knew about the discounts available for the "wholesale" customers. I didn't operate "under-the table"...like the racing industry does.

[Ian Meyers]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I'd like to put what you've said here to a test. As it happens, I too have become friendly with someone who is part of a "Whale operation"...and he tells me that these whales are not being charged the breakage that the rest of us bettors are forced to pay. Is this "knowledgeable" friend of mine telling me the TRUTH...or is he lying to me? And, if he is telling me the truth...is this a "fair advantage" for the Whale to have?

None of the teams that I know get back breakage. Can it be negotiated? Maybe if you agree to bet $250 million a year or something in that range. If anyone reading this can bet even 1/10th that amount I can get you some pretty strong rebates.



As far as APIs go, I don't know why they would be considered "dirty." We made them available at PTC (I don't know if they do any more) and at America's ADW when I ran that one. I'm sure a number of ADWs still make them available for you to write to. For everyone? No, there is some cost to maintaining it and it can use up bandwidth so typically the ADWs will set some minimums. That's not unreasonable to me.

[GMB@BP]

Pretty good Poindexter,

never seen "suckers" extrapolated to that degree, but well done...well done indeed

[GMB@BP]

Hey I remember PTC....I was with them before they threw you in jail in AZ for betting on horses, I remember getting a rebate, even for my small play.

Dont think I can go back there in Arizona but hey, at least one time I was a cool kid with the rebate.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Ian Meyers

None of the teams that I know get back breakage. Can it be negotiated? Maybe if you agree to bet $250 million a year or something in that range. If anyone reading this can bet even 1/10th that amount I can get you some pretty strong rebates.



As far as APIs go, I don't know why they would be considered "dirty." We made them available at PTC (I don't know if they do any more) and at America's ADW when I ran that one. I'm sure a number of ADWs still make them available for you to write to. For everyone? No, there is some cost to maintaining it and it can use up bandwidth so typically the ADWs will set some minimums. That's not unreasonable to me.

Mr. Meyers...my friend is part of a small operation, containing only a couple of PhDs. In fact, to put it in his own words to me: "30 PhDs on one team sounds to me as truthful as if Trump had said it. You couldn't get 30 math PhDs to agree on what to order for lunch, let alone how to model horse racing".

He is on a small team, and yet this team is operating without a breakage charge...a fact which makes me shudder at the thought of what other "clandestine" agreements the big teams are operating under in this game.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Pretty good Poindexter,

never seen "suckers" extrapolated to that degree, but well done...well done indeed

Agree, very good post. I'm not a whale, never have been, but I used to bet easily five times what I do these days, even ten times as much some years.

The value just isn't there any more. The fields suck most of the time. Races aren't nearly as competitive as they used to be. The majority of races are too restrictive. The aren't written for bettors but for horsemen. The rules for claiming races have been destroyed to the detriment of bettors. The claiming price / purse ratio is a joke these days, further encouraging noncompetitive racing. There is too much slot money flowing to purses and that limits the importance of betting handle. No racing secretary is trying to write races that will drive betting, unless of course it is on a gimmick bet like the Rainbow 6 or Super High 5. I'll save those blights on the game for another day.

When the takeout is as high as it is, there are not many overlays to be found. It has gotten worse as the races have gotten less competitive. When you add in CRW and the rebates, the overlay is an endangered species. I stick to mostly stakes races and quality allowance and maiden races where I still think I have a chance and have done reasonably well doing so. I still love horse racing, but frankly I'm not entertained enough to watch horses running around in a circle that I feel the need to bet most of the races. Making bad wagers is not the least bit entertaining for me. Neither is donating money to these whales and computer teams. When I get the itch to bet a few hundred dollars on a weekday card, I generally decide to make better use of the money and give to some of the horse rescue operations out there.

Of course I still follow the sport closely. I'm fascinated by figure making at all racing levels and I do find that entertaining. I love watching the best horses develop and see what they can accomplish, both numerically and in actual accomplishments. But until things change, my handle is not going back up, and will probably slide even farther. I know several others that have done the same as me, including some from this board. They still love the game, but betting has been cut way, way back. We've realized that in most races we are the sucker at the table.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

Agree, very good post. I'm not a whale, never have been, but I used to bet easily five times what I do these days, even ten times as much some years.

The value just isn't there any more. The fields suck most of the time. Races aren't nearly as competitive as they used to be. The majority of races are too restrictive. The aren't written for bettors but for horsemen. The rules for claiming races have been destroyed to the detriment of bettors. The claiming price / purse ratio is a joke these days, further encouraging noncompetitive racing. There is too much slot money flowing to purses and that limits the importance of betting handle. No racing secretary is trying to write races that will drive betting, unless of course it is on a gimmick bet like the Rainbow 6 or Super High 5. I'll save those blights on the game for another day.

When the takeout is as high as it is, there are not many overlays to be found. It has gotten worse as the races have gotten less competitive. When you add in CRW and the rebates, the overlay is an endangered species. I stick to mostly stakes races and quality allowance and maiden races where I still think I have a chance and have done reasonably well doing so. I still love horse racing, but frankly I'm not entertained enough to watch horses running around in a circle that I feel the need to bet most of the races. Making bad wagers is not the least bit entertaining for me. Neither is donating money to these whales and computer teams. When I get the itch to bet a few hundred dollars on a weekday card, I generally decide to make better use of the money and give to some of the horse rescue operations out there.

Of course I still follow the sport closely. I'm fascinated by figure making at all racing levels and I do find that entertaining. I love watching the best horses develop and see what they can accomplish, both numerically and in actual accomplishments. But until things change, my handle is not going back up, and will probably slide even farther. I know several others that have done the same as me, including some from this board. They still love the game, but betting has been cut way, way back. We've realized that in most races we are the sucker at the table.

I still "love the game"...but hate the game-handlers. I used to love betting horses during the weekdays...because it allowed me to indulge in my "passion" while freeing up the weekend for my family obligations. Now, the weekday racing throughout the country is hardly worth a second look...even as the purses have reached the stratosphere. The loyal horse-racing fan has been deceived into believing that the higher purses would "improve the game"...when the reality has proven to be the exact opposite.

Since moving to Las Vegas, my betting interest in this game has waned to the point where it can no longer compete with the interest that I've developed for the other gambling games that are offered here. And, to my surprise, I have discovered that the "intellectual stimulation", which I originally thought only horse-racing could provide, is easily carried over into the other gambling games...when you pursue them "seriously enough". I had as much "fun" cheering for my Eagles-bet yesterday, as I ever remember having at the track.

Is it easy winning money at the other gambling games offered out there? Of course not! But you don't feel like such a "sucker", when you lose.

[Ian Meyers]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Mr. Meyers...my friend is part of a small operation, containing only a couple of PhDs. In fact, to put it in his own words to me: "30 PhDs on one team sounds to me as truthful as if Trump had said it. You couldn't get 30 math PhDs to agree on what to order for lunch, let alone how to model horse racing".

Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.



Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

I came back to post only because Andy, whom I respect, asked me to. I don't need the nonsense, I enjoy what I do and I work with some great people. Everything else is just noise to me.