Dick Schmidt-Question about TPR

[shoelessjoe]

Dick,I think I heard that one point of the TPR numbers equals one length is this correct?Also do you think these ratings still hold up with today's racing and is there anything you would do different now then when they first came out.Im now using Synergism 3 and the TPR ratings are in there that's why Im asking this.Thanks,Shoeless

[Dick Schmidt]

Joe,


One point of TPR ratings equals one point. Since horses are constantly decelerating from a spot about an eighth of a mile into a race to the finish, it is just about impossible to create any number that accurately reflects a length. Just call them points and use them.

Yes, they are as accurate and effective as ever. Since almost no one is willing to do the work required to use TPR or any other speed/pace method, they continue to tick along. I just got a Christmas card from an old user who is $60,000 up for the year on bets of $20 a race. They work, but know that he earned this money, he didn't find it laying there waiting for him.

As for Synergism 3, dump it and upgrade to Syn 6. Much more accurate and you can download the races. I really like the adjustments that Syn 6 uses, based on Jim Cramer's excellent speed ratings and track to track adjustments. A true professional level tool.

Dick

In Theory there is no difference between practice and theory.
In Practice, there is.

[traynor]

Dick Schmidt wrote: <As for Synergism 3, dump it and upgrade to Syn 6. Much more accurate and you can download the races. I really like the adjustments that Syn 6 uses, based on Jim Cramer's excellent speed ratings and track to track adjustments. A true professional level tool.>

Question, please. How are pace lines selected in syn 6? Some kind of decision matrix, or selected as appropriate, or some combination?
Good Luck

[shoelessjoe]

Dick,Thanks for taking the time to answer that for me.Joe

[JohnGalt1]

I also am having success using the method of making pace ratings from "Pace Makes the Race"

One change I made in the method which works for me is to downgrade the Final Fraction rating for closers. I got this from William L. Scott's "Total Victory at the Track."

Example--10 horse field--Horse A (Lengths back) 2 1
.45 1.10
Horse B 12 1
.45 1.10

They ran the same fast race, but B had to pass many horses, so the question was are the gained lengths from acceleration or because the horses in front are tiring?

My ratings for these horses are A--- 93 86 for a TPR of 179
B--- 83 93 for a TPR of 176

The most likely chance B will beat A today are if B has more back class, the track is favoring closers, or there is horse C and D that look like this--
C--- 95 79 174
D--- 97 70 167
where A needs the lead. (although this A did gain some ground so it may not pertain to this race.)

The chart, modified from the Scott book I use to punish closers:

Gain in Lengths
1-4 3/4 full credit
5-6 3/4 5
7-8 3/4 6
9-10 3/4 7
11-12 3/4 8
13- 14/34 9
15 and up 10


Another reason I want to punish closers is they tend to have traffic trouble and tend for finish in the bottom of the trifectas rather than win.

Dick Schmitt, thanks for being part of the Sartin book. I still perform the pace ratings with pen and paper and have the laminated charts I ordered propped up on my desk along with my charts from Cynthia's par ratings, which I find much more accurate than the 3 year track records you used in the book.

I also use Scott's Performance Class Ratings so my handicapping is made up of 3 main criteria. PCR TPR, and Form.

Thanks again Dick and for all the advice and tidbits of knowledge shared here.

I don't post often, but read this board at least twice a week.

[garyoz]

Originally Posted by traynor

Question, please. How are pace lines selected in syn 6? Some kind of decision matrix, or selected as appropriate, or some combination?
Good Luck

It is a great program, but in my experience (used it profitably for 3 years) it is best when using manual selection. You really need to get your head into the race. You can also use an automatic choice selector which consists of a user defined Choice Selection Mode or an Advanced Choice Selection mode. With the first, you can either use a default model that comes with the program or select the values/variable yourself. The Advanced Choice Selection mode is tied to the decision models built from results at the track you are playing (as I recall). Still no subsitute for rolling up your sleeves and picking the pacelines yourself (IMHO).

I'm just playing recreationally now as a weekend warrior because of work commitments, so I'm messing around with other (cheaper) software that doesn't have the monthly download requirement.

[boxcar]

So, here we are in the 21st Century -- In the Information Age -- The Age of Fast PCs -- and the "black box" program that would make mincemeat out of every kind number imaginable hasn't been invented, yet? (Have I got this right?) To get the best results from any high-powered, hoidy toidy program (read: sophisticated and, therefore, no offense intended), one must exercise a certain degree of personal judgment -- judgment that is generated from his own onboard "computer".

I've long been curious about something, and so I direct this question to all the more accomplished users of these programs, whether it be All Ways, HTR, Synergism, etc.: What is your average win mutuel, using the program of your choice?

Boxcar
P.S. Merry Christmas, Everyone!

[shanta]

[QUOTE=boxcar] What is your average win mutuel, using the program of your choice?

My last 40 twenty race cycles ( 800 races)

$ 14.70

Merry Christmas
Richie

[garyoz]

Originally Posted by boxcar

So, here we are in the 21st Century -- In the Information Age -- The Age of Fast PCs -- and the "black box" program that would make mincemeat out of every kind number imaginable hasn't been invented, yet? (Have I got this right?) To get the best results from any high-powered, hoidy toidy program (read: sophisticated and, therefore, no offense intended), one must exercise a certain degree of personal judgment -- judgment that is generated from his own onboard "computer".

Paceline selection is an art not a science. This is particularly true if you want to find angles that lead to overlays. Synergism has a really nice interface for looking at pacelines and potentially coming up with unique ways of looking at a horse and race. It isn't the standard best of last 3, best 2 of last 3, or last race approach. Besides, this is merely my experience--maybe others found the automated approach better.

In terms of average "win" mutual you should include an average Pick-4 (or other gimmick) payouts. That is what makes or breaks my year. Winning percentage usually isn't as important as how you leverage the winning overlays that you pick.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by shanta

My last 40 twenty race cycles ( 800 races)

$ 14.70

Merry Christmas
Richie

Nice average! What program are you using?

Boxcar

[shanta]

Originally Posted by boxcar

Nice average! What program are you using?

Boxcar

Hi Boxcar,
It is a program that is NOT available comercially. It is Sartin based as far as most readouts but has been brought up to the 21st Century meaning models, wager tracking, isolating profitable classes and distances etc are ALL done in program.

It is NOT a black box at all. I have to choose pacelines to enter and on a 9 race card it will take me an hour at least. I have some aids within the program to help with this BUT it still requires a lot of work and using the old "human computer" or our brain.

I really have no clue what a "black box" is although one might exist. I work one sometimes 2 tracks a day and that's it for me.

I gotta work my ass off to even have a chance in this game. lol

Stay cool
Richie

[traynor]

garyoz wrote: <It is a great program, but in my experience (used it profitably for 3 years) it is best when using manual selection. You really need to get your head into the race. You can also use an automatic choice selector which consists of a user defined Choice Selection Mode or an Advanced Choice Selection mode. With the first, you can either use a default model that comes with the program or select the values/variable yourself. The Advanced Choice Selection mode is tied to the decision models built from results at the track you are playing (as I recall). Still no subsitute for rolling up your sleeves and picking the pacelines yourself (IMHO).>

Thanks for the information. If I select pace lines, is there a relatively simple provision to allow this? Something on the order of a screen display of last (however many) races of the particular entry from a database, then highlight or check or whatever to select pace lines?

It sounds like a great program, but I am skeptical of automated pace line selection.
Good Luck

[Lefty]

Traynor, there's a trial. You have to use past races but you can see how to pick pl's and how all the ratings work.
http://synergism-sdp.com/

[garyoz]

Originally Posted by traynor

garyoz wrote: < If I select pace lines, is there a relatively simple rovision to allow this? Something on the order of a screen display of last (however many) races of the particular entry from a database, then highlight or check or whatever to select pace lines?

It sounds like a great program, but I am skeptical of automated pace line selection.
Good Luck

It is easy to use and very intuitive. I agree with you on the skepticism of automated paceline selection. Although, I remember, a few years back that Ken Massa at HTR had a contest between his automatic paceline method and individuals selecting pacelines, and he did very well. Maybe the HTR regulars remember know more about that. Jeez...this thread probably belongs in the Handicapping Software forum.

[Tom]

The automatic paceline selector outperformed all of us. We used one factor - the velocity rating - and nobody could beat the program. Many of the competitors are proven contest winners/placers/pros.