Most of racing's issues reflected in one tweet

[cj]

Obviously a lot of factors go into this, but the end result is the game is looking more and more like harness racing.

Twitter

[Zaf]

WOW ! Never thought I would see that with the thoroughbreds. Are the winners that obvious ?

Z

[cj]

Originally Posted by Zaf

WOW ! Never thought I would see that with the thoroughbreds. Are the winners that obvious ?

Z

They are, in my opinion. Races are not being written with betting in mind. They are mostly written to appease trainers. Until that changes, it isn't going to get better.

[Zaf]

True, I have never seen so many uninteresting contests in my lifetime as a horse player. I am passing more races than ever before.

Z

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by cj

They are, in my opinion. Races are not being written with betting in mind. They are mostly written to appease trainers. Until that changes, it isn't going to get better.

Let's see if that changes a wee bit at Saratoga and Del Mar......

[Augenj]

Current favorites win percent at -

BEL - 39.90% 381 races
CD - 36.34% 344 races
GP - 35.46% 1,517 races
SA - 35.44% 1,078 races

http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/to...ly-statistics/

[Nutz and Boltz]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Let's see if that changes a wee bit at Saratoga and Del Mar......

I don't know, Saratoga was showing some signs of the same trend last year . (Or is it just me because I lost my shirt there last year and I'm a long shot player).

[DeltaLover]

What are that the arguments that support the proposition that an increased favorite winning percentage is a bad thing? (My question is real and not rhetorical).

[Secondbest]

Considering the short fields for dirt especially at Belmont not surprising that favorites winning more overall. If you broke it down would dirt only be higher and turf lower?

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

What are that the arguments that support the proposition that an increased favorite winning percentage is a bad thing? (My question is real and not rhetorical).

While I do think it is (still) possible to model the game in its current state with an eye towards making a profit...

I see ever shrinking field size and ever increasing win percent of post time favorites as a warning flag.

Extrapolate small field size out to the extreme.

What if field size for all thoroughbred races became just two horses?

How attractive would this be in terms of a "horse racing is a compelling sport" perspective?

If current takeout rates remain unchanged - how attractive would this be in terms of a "horse racing is a compelling gambling game" perspective?

I see ever shrinking field size and ever increasing win percent of post time favorites as an "I can see where this game is headed" indicator.




-jp

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[lamboguy]

jeff, we are not only seeing shrinking field sizes, but we have shrinking horse owner's, less trainers that win and less people that pay any attention to racing. the increases in the game that we are seeing are rising takeouts, higher training day rates and vet bills and higher racing form and program costs.

i know of 50 guys personally that have owned horses that supported the sport that no longer own or wager on horse racing. these guys have been priced out of the game in North America. in the past these people were the backbone of the sport and the reason why so many race tracks could flourish at once. no we are in the contraction era. it sounds good but it won't bring or keep new people in this game.

Stronach wanted to take over Parx, they probably see the problems that are ahead in the not to distant future and decided to back off before they walk into a headache.

[cj]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

What are that the arguments that support the proposition that an increased favorite winning percentage is a bad thing? (My question is real and not rhetorical).

Have you seen the state of harness racing?

[Jeff P]

I agree with you Phil.

From what I've read of the reported witness testimony for the prosecution in the Rojas case - things look pretty damning for Pennsylvania horse racing.

The thought occurred to me that one possible way this (eventually) plays out would be that the Pennsylvania Legislature pulls the plug and completely decouples horse racing from slots.

Given that as a possible scenario -- why would anyone (The Stronach Group included) jump in right now and take over Parx?

Probably smarter to wait - and let things play out a bit.


-jp

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[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by cj

Have you seen the state of harness racing?

Haven't looked lately (defined as the last 15 years) but too many faves was a problem pre 2000 if Im not mistaken

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by cj

Have you seen the state of harness racing?

I do not follow harness at all so I do not know anything about it.

I am trying to understand why it is bad for the game for the favorites to win at a high rate but I think that this alone is not enough datum to form an opinion as other things like ROI for example should affect this "badness" and this is why I am asking for related arguments and ways of thought.