Dave Gutfreund Video says why he's had enough of horse racing. Will stick to Poker.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

He's playing a type of poker (large field, deep stack tournaments) that is basically pure gambling for all but a tiny number of elite players (and I'm not even sure about them-- it's possible that someone like Phil Hellmuth may just have a ton of rungood, as there are a number of players who are considered highly skilled who have mediocre results in deep-stack large field tournaments).

I hope for his sake that if he actually plans to play poker full time, he focuses on playing types of poker that he can be consistently profitable in over a large sample size. If he just wants to hit a jackpot payout in in the WSOP, might as well just play the lottery. It's less work and the chances are about the same.

Dave is no Johnny-come-lately to poker. He has had a fair amount of success in tournament play. http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-play...esults/overall

I met him back in the eighties at a Las Vegas handicapping contest and saw him at numerous other tourneys. He is a gifted handicapper having won, I believe, 9 handicapping tournaments. He was a valuable member of the NTRA Player's Panel helping shape the (mostly ignored) recommendations to improve racing for the players and ultimately for the tracks.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Dave is no Johnny-come-lately to poker. He has had a fair amount of success in tournament play. http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-play...esults/overall

Here's a better, more current look at Dave's poker success:

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/play...695.1498677741

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Dave is no Johnny-come-lately to poker. He has had a fair amount of success in tournament play. http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-play...esults/overall

I met him back in the eighties at a Las Vegas handicapping contest and saw him at numerous other tourneys. He is a gifted handicapper having won, I believe, 9 handicapping tournaments. He was a valuable member of the NTRA Player's Panel helping shape the (mostly ignored) recommendations to improve racing for the players and ultimately for the tracks.

He has a ridiculously good record in smaller buy-in tournaments, which is where you can make bank. I don't understand why someone like that would waste his summer playing the WSOP, which takes a ton of time and is basically a lottery.

But then, I don't really understand why any intelligent person plays the WSOP. It's the Rainbow 6 of the poker world.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

He has a ridiculously good record in smaller buy-in tournaments, which is where you can make bank. I don't understand why someone like that would waste his summer playing the WSOP, which takes a ton of time and is basically a lottery.

But then, I don't really understand why any intelligent person plays the WSOP. It's the Rainbow 6 of the poker world.

Can you finish 39th and cash for $24,717 in the Rainbow 6? If you look at his record you will see that he was cashing in other tournaments while the 2017 was/is going on.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Can you finish 39th and cash for $24,717 in the Rainbow 6? If you look at his record you will see that he was cashing in other tournaments while the 2017 was/is going on.

Presumably he isn't playing in one WSOP tournament. $24,717 is just a keep-afloat if you are playing a reasonably full WSOP schedule (it costs $1500 to $5000 for each tournament buy-in).

You have to make final tables, because the payouts are titled towards final tables. And the fields are so large that making final tables is essentially random variance (MAYBE unless you are Phil Hellmuth, who seems able to do it year after year, but as I said, he might just be the ultimate beneficiary of rungood).

And you are spending a ton of time NOT playing in profitable $350 buy-in tournaments (or cash games!- the most profitable thing to do in Las Vegas during the WSOP is probably playing in the cash games against the tilting players who get knocked out of WSOP events!) in order to play in the WSOP. A WSOP event takes several days.

It's just a ridiculous example of irrational gambling- dreaming of a gigantic life-changing score and paying a huge opportunity cost to chase it. And those WSOP events draw hundreds and sometimes thousands of entrants!

It's not amazing to me that Ben Affleck would play the WSOP. But a seriously, profitable, rational gambler? This is a testament to the pathologies of gamblers.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Presumably he isn't playing in one WSOP tournament. $24,717 is just a keep-afloat if you are playing a reasonably full WSOP schedule (it costs $1500 to $5000 for each tournament buy-in).

You have to make final tables, because the payouts are titled towards final tables. And the fields are so large that making final tables is essentially random variance (MAYBE unless you are Phil Hellmuth, who seems able to do it year after year, but as I said, he might just be the ultimate beneficiary of rungood).

And you are spending a ton of time NOT playing in profitable $350 buy-in tournaments (or cash games!- the most profitable thing to do in Las Vegas during the WSOP is probably playing in the cash games against the tilting players who get knocked out of WSOP events!) in order to play in the WSOP. A WSOP event takes several days.

It's just a ridiculous example of irrational gambling- dreaming of a gigantic life-changing score and paying a huge opportunity cost to chase it. And those WSOP events draw hundreds and sometimes thousands of entrants!

It's not amazing to me that Ben Affleck would play the WSOP. But a seriously, profitable, rational gambler? This is a testament to the pathologies of gamblers.

I think the good players have proven that it is not irrational gambling. If the entry fees were just a pittance of his bankroll would it still be irrational?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I think the good players have proven that it is not irrational gambling. If the entry fees were just a pittance of his bankroll would it still be irrational?

There's a very small list of players (Hellmuth, and maybe a few other players) who have had any consistency in getting to final tables (the only way to make money) in WSOP events. The variance is SO high that it's hard to tell if even they have cracked the code; nonetheless, the vast majority of even "top" pros, including some of the biggest money winners in online play and some of the biggest stars of televised poker, clearly have not. Lots of people who the poker community considers to be great no limit players have played a couple of years worth of full time WSOP schedules without getting to a single final table.

It's quite possible to cash 5 or 10 times a year if you are good, but cashes just keep you afloat, and a lot of the people who have 30 or 40 lifetime cashes have actually played in 25 WSOP events for 8 years or something, and are lifetime losers in the WSOP.

And as I said, the key point is the opportunity cost. During the WSOP, there are soft mid-stakes cash games which cater to the players who bust out of the tournaments and where a skilled no limit player ought to be able to clear $100 an hour. Plus, it certainly looks like Gutfreund makes a big profit playing ordinary $350 buy-in tournaments with smaller fields, i.e., less variance. He's giving that up to play in WSOP events with dubious EV.

The WSOP is a sucker bet for all but perhaps the very highest echelon of poker pros (and as I said, we really don't even know that, because with the variance being so high, it's possible that Hellmuth is just the person on the tail of the curve).

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

.......The WSOP is a sucker bet for all but perhaps the very highest echelon of poker pros (and as I said, we really don't even know that, because with the variance being so high, it's possible that Hellmuth is just the person on the tail of the curve).

It is my understanding that many of the players get sponsored or sell a percentage of their winnings. Wouldn't you want a free roll in the main event?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

.......It's just a ridiculous example of irrational gambling- dreaming of a gigantic life-changing score and paying a huge opportunity cost to chase it. And those WSOP events draw hundreds and sometimes thousands of entrants!

It's not amazing to me that Ben Affleck would play the WSOP. But a seriously, profitable, rational gambler? This is a testament to the pathologies of gamblers.

So Dave had a not so great finish in the main event. Finished 738.

$ 10,000 No Limit Hold'em - Main Event Championship (Event #73)
48th World Series of Poker (WSOP) 2017, Las Vegas 738th $ 18,693

Is it really irrational gambling when a decent player can take a shot, finish 738 and still make $8,693?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

So Dave had a not so great finish in the main event. Finished 738.

$ 10,000 No Limit Hold'em - Main Event Championship (Event #73)
48th World Series of Poker (WSOP) 2017, Las Vegas 738th $ 18,693

Is it really irrational gambling when a decent player can take a shot, finish 738 and still make $8,693?

That's a less than even money payoff (4 to 5) on something that was at least 3 to 1 against.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

That's a less than even money payoff (4 to 5) on something that was at least 3 to 1 against.

I would think those odds are too high in Dave's case, much too high.

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

The late odds changes have been happening for decades. imo, way too much is made of it as a negative factor in anyone's game.

In order to have value , regularly, in a game with a confiscatory takeout, you need a steady and abundant supply of suckers.

Do we have that?

That said, if you do the hard work, and have loads of patience, there is still opportunity. If you want to bet every race or 20 races a day in simulcasts, you probably can't find that much edge.

alton is right on the money. very few arenas in gambling are as advantageous to the player as horseracing. in poker you have to ante up every hand to stay in the game. in horseracing you are free to participate only when you have a decided advantage. you are not required to bet every day or every race. the problem is the mindset of the average horseplayer. if they looked at their wagers as investments for their portfolio, they would grow their investments very nicely.
unfortunately most don't do that.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by acorn54

alton is right on the money. very few arenas in gambling are as advantageous to the player as horseracing. in poker you have to ante up every hand to stay in the game. in horseracing you are free to participate only when you have a decided advantage. you are not required to bet every day or every race. the problem is the mindset of the average horseplayer. if they looked at their wagers as investments for their portfolio, they would grow their investments very nicely.
unfortunately most don't do that.

You are playing in the wrong poker games...IMO.

[Bullet Plane]

What is he saying about horse racing is 100% right on!

I mean when I went to the Derby this year, I bet a 10-1 on the M/L.

Looked like a good play. Nobody picking this horse.

Before they load the gate, he's down to 6-1.

and he paid off at 3-1. the odds changed on the far turn!

Now these bet down horses seem to always win.

Why don't they take a 10-1 M/L beat it down to nothing,

and lose their money.

Doesn't seem to happen.

And that is rare case of finding any value.

Mostly there is no value at all.

then, when there appears to be. Poof it's gone on the far turn.

I don't if it's computers, too many whales and not enough "fans," or what the deal is...

But, it really takes the joy out of the game.

I still love the sport of it. I love horse racing and will always watch it...

But, as far as, a betting game. Not so much.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cj

I would think those odds are too high in Dave's case, much too high.

He's probably played in 5 or 6 main events (hard to know for sure, I have to go off information as to when he was in Las Vegas, as non-cashes are not recorded in the databases) and this was his first cash. So he's $30,000 or $40,000 in the hole on main events.

And that's TOTALLY standard. The vast majority of good players who play in the main event do not cash, every year. It is VERY hard to cash in the main event, we are talking about surviving over several days of poker.