With a 30% win rate, one play every two cards & 20% ROI, how & what would you bet

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

How are you going to go through 20 tracks in one day?

I only do dirt races and then there have to be enough starters in the race.

I scan the summary at the bottom of the Brisnet ultimate pp's with comments and only go up every once in a while to check just one data point on typically just one horse.

That's how I can do 20 tracks in 2.5 hours.

Remember, I said 2.5 hours is as fast as humanly possible as I can do it. A good three hours would far more be likely for me to do 20 tracks.

It's damn hard work (at least for me - I'm 64).

Best,

Bill C

[oughtoh]

I am lucky to do 2 tracks in 3 hours. I will be your age this year. About these rebates from ADW's that everyone talks about. Who give these rebates and how much do you have to bet to get them?

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

I am lucky to do 2 tracks in 3 hours. I will be your age this year. About these rebates from ADW's that everyone talks about. Who give these rebates and how much do you have to bet to get them?

Twinspires.com gives rebates but beyond that I don't know much about them

[oughtoh]

I have them but haven't used them since my information got hacked from them a few years ago.

[betovernetcapper]

I looked up the possibilities of a 30% spot play. Over the course of 1000 races you can expect to have one losing streak of 19 ( ) and one winning streak of 6

One feature of having a 30% win rate is that you have a 70% lose rate. That's a lot of horses and on the plus side a lot of data. Is there any common thread among that 70% that would allow you to cut them from your spot play & maintain the 30% (+) & $1.2 ROI? Not all spot plays or software programs preform equally well at all tracks. If your red boarding reveals that it does poorly at a particular track, drop it & your win% automatically goes up.

Currently your spot play gives you 3.5 bets a week. If you bet $200 on @, you should have a net profit of $140. The good news here is that you can automatically drop those tracks with very small handles. If the win pool is $600 & you bet $200 your 7-2 shot becomes odds on. A software program I was using was showing very good results at either Sunland or a least a track with the name Sun in it. I started to play and noticed the most I could bet was between $5 & $10 without changing the odds. At any rate if you drop the tiny tracks that can't accommodate your bets, your probably down to 10 or 12 tracks which would make life easier.

In terms of betting, there are spot plays that produce positive results in the place & show categories. Because you have a 70% loss rate, it might be helpful if you could break even with a place bet as insurance. Take a look at your last few hundred races and see what the effect would be.

[green80]

just curious, how many race sample was that +20% roi from?

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

... I might be wrong but i think this one might well hold up.

The "XYZ" system did 2 years ago but I received a ton of criticism (mostly private) because I specifically hadn't declared an odds filter up front.

Two 100-race samples with ROI's of 33% and -3% and people called the system a failure.

I didn't make any claims for that system at all but folks called it a failure.

I'd like those people to declare their criteria of successes or failure upfront like I did with the system's predictions.

There. I said it.

OK, kid, you're just human.

Be well everyone.

Bill C

I know it's difficult to ignore some people because I know some have really pissed me off.

Sounds like you were satisfied with the results of your samples. So, if their criticism isn't constructive criticism then as someone previously and eloquently stated just f' em.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

Currently your spot play gives you 3.5 bets a week.

It's way more than 3.5 plays a week. There were five plays yesterday and maybe as many as 10 today .

[betovernetcapper]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

It's way more than 3.5 plays a week. There were five plays yesterday and maybe as many as 10 today .

Wow that's quite a lot. Were it me & I was sure this would continue to work, I'd start out with flat bets and bankroll that would cover 19 consecutive losses.
When the bankroll increased enough to cover 19 consecutive loses at a larger bet size, I'd increase the bet.

Example bankroll $475 bet $25, when the bankroll reaches $950, make the bet $50 then when it reaches $1475 increase the bet to $75 and at $1900, the bet would be $100 and so on.

This is not an exciting betting method but if your data is correct it should work. One nice feature is that your increasing the bet size in proportion to your bankroll at a pace that should be comfortable enough to avoid chocking.

Will be interested in hearing how your plays produce. Good Luck.

[NorCalGreg]

"One nice feature is that you're increasing the bet size in proportion to your bankroll at a pace that should be comfortable enough to avoid "chocking".

Is that an actual word----or a typo? If it's not it could be....such as "You bet so much you're chalking"

A verb meaning to turn your 4-1 shot to chalk, by over-betting = "chalking"

Think I'll go down to the courthouse and register that term--you'll have to pay me to use it again.

[betovernetcapper]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

"One nice feature is that you're increasing the bet size in proportion to your bankroll at a pace that should be comfortable enough to avoid "chocking".

Is that an actual word----or a typo? If it's not it could be....such as "You bet so much you're chalking"

A verb meaning to turn your 4-1 shot to chalk, by over-betting = "chalking"

Think I'll go down to the courthouse and register that term--you'll have to pay me to use it again.

My bad. Meant to say choking. Surprisingly there is such a word and it has something to do with preventing the forward motion of a vehicle using a ( you guessed it ) chock.

[betovernetcapper]

Not to go off topic, but I just checked eBAY & there are 4821 chocks on auction. Who knew?

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

Wow that's quite a lot. Were it me & I was sure this would continue to work, I'd start out with flat bets and bankroll that would cover 19 consecutive losses.
When the bankroll increased enough to cover 19 consecutive loses at a larger bet size, I'd increase the bet.

Example bankroll $475 bet $25, when the bankroll reaches $950, make the bet $50 then when it reaches $1475 increase the bet to $75 and at $1900, the bet would be $100 and so on.

This is not an exciting betting method but if your data is correct it should work. One nice feature is that your increasing the bet size in proportion to your bankroll at a pace that should be comfortable enough to avoid chocking.

Will be interested in hearing how your plays produce. Good Luck.

I'll have to give your betting strategy some serious thought.

Many thanks for sharing.

Bill C

[traynor]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

My bad. Meant to say choking. Surprisingly there is such a word and it has something to do with preventing the forward motion of a vehicle using a ( you guessed it ) chock.

It also has a meaning similar to "choking"--as in two blocks jammed against one another to the point that no further movement is possible (alternately called "chockablock" or "chocked tight"). Common rigging and boating term, with a lot of variations.