With a 30% win rate, one play every two cards & 20% ROI, how & what would you bet

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

Yes, we heard rumors to that effect.

I'm kidding: yes, that IS the odds filter that I use.

Thanks,

Bill

Originally Posted by green80

With a 30% win rate, I wouldn't bet anything less than 5/2

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

I would not have posted my original question if I didn't think I had a adequate sample size, known the distribution of the odds on the winners and most importantly, knew that the median winning payoff multiplied by 30% was generating a break even ROI.

Bill, you're one of the good guys on this board, however your previous post above contradicts what you just said......It must be my fault as to what critical point I'm trying to make with specific odds layering UNDER 5/2 that's being misunderstood. Bottom-line, you can't have a 30% hit rate at a +ROI of 20%, when your AVERAGE winner pays $8.00, and yet you have your odds filter set at nothing under 5-2......It's impossible.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

One other option is to have a standard betting bankroll where you bet 3% of your bankroll per play, then put the profits on a Kelly bankroll. That way if your plays continue to deliver you will start making huge money down the road, but if they do not, and they sort of tread water, your initial bankroll will not go down the tubes. This is typically the best approach when trying something new.

Thanks for some good food for thought.

Best,

Bill C

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by jimmyb

One track wouldn't cut it. Simulcasting would work great for win betting. 20 tracks would give me 10 plays. I agree with 2% of bankroll with a bank of $2000.00.

$40.00 win bets X10. 20% of $400 = $80.00 X 7 days = $560.00 weekly. An extra $2000.00 or so a month would be a nice chunk of change.

What happened to the 30% win rate?

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by green80

With a 30% win rate, I wouldn't bet anything less than 5/2

Shouldn't this be something like 4/1 instead of 5/2?

[jimmyb]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

What happened to the 30% win rate?

The end result as stated was a 1.20 ROI. I have no idea how many races this is based on, but from what I gather it was plenty.

The bottom line would be all that mattered to me.

[vegasone]

Seems to me that you already have a system that is profitable. Now you are trying to find another system that you will need to research.

Just because you are profitable with win is no guarantee it will carry into other types of bet. More research is required. Modifying odds ranges is basically creating something new so more research again.

[Bill Cullen]

I don't know who said said I had a average winning mutual of $8.00 but it wasn't me.

[Bill Cullen]

TIME TO TEST THE SYSTEM I GUESS - SEE MY PICKS FOR TODAY UNDER SELECTIONS AND ALSO GOING FORWARD ON A DAILY BASIS .

i WILL KEEP CUMULATIVE STATISTICS.

i'LL LET FOLKS JUDGE FOR THEMSELVES.

best,

Bill C

P.S. - I'll need a name for the system. I'll call it the GG system with GG being an acronym for Charlie's Brown existential cry "Good Grief."

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

I don't know who said said I had a average winning mutual of $8.00 but it wasn't me.

You claimed a 30% hit rate and a 20% roi. To make 20% on every dollar bet you would have to have an average mutual of $8.00 at a 30% hit rate.

.3*8.00=$2.40 per $2 bet or 20% roi.

[Bill Cullen]

I'm not disputing the calculation or the veracity of the claim of an average winning mutuel around $8.00. What I'm saying is that I did not explicitly assert the specific figure of $8.00.

Anyway, as I said in my previous post, I decided on the spur of the moment to test this new system which I'm calling the GG system.

I might be wrong but i think this one might well hold up.

The "XYZ" system did 2 years ago but I received a ton of criticism (mostly private) because I specifically hadn't declared an odds filter up front.

Two 100-race samples with ROI's of 33% and -3% and people called the system a failure.

I didn't make any claims for that system at all but folks called it a failure.

I'd like those people to declare their criteria of successes or failure upfront like I did with the system's predictions.

There. I said it.

OK, kid, you're just human.

Be well everyone.

Bill C

[green80]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Shouldn't this be something like 4/1 instead of 5/2?

with a 30% hit rate 6.66 is about your break even point. Why bet horses that will pay less than it takes to break even. This is assuming all your picks hit at the same rate regardless of odds, but with the information provided that is where I'm at.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by jimmyb

One track wouldn't cut it. Simulcasting would work great for win betting. 20 tracks would give me 10 plays. I agree with 2% of bankroll with a bank of $2000.00.

$40.00 win bets X10. 20% of $400 = $80.00 X 7 days = $560.00 weekly. An extra $2000.00 or so a month would be a nice chunk of change.

How are you going to go through 20 tracks in one day?

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by green80

with a 30% hit rate 6.66 is about your break even point. Why bet horses that will pay less than it takes to break even. This is assuming all your picks hit at the same rate regardless of odds, but with the information provided that is where I'm at.

I'm only trying to bet horses at 5/2 or better. If memory serves, the minimum winning price for a 5/2 shot is $7.00.

In the above sentence, when I say the word "trying," I mean I'm setting a 5/2 or higher odds filter at zero minutes to post for the GG system's win bets that I bet through twinspires.com.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

I don't know who said said I had a average winning mutual of $8.00 but it wasn't me.

You sir have lost all credibility with me......On the simplest level, 30% hit rate showing a +ROI of 20% looks like this:

10 races x $2bets= $20

30% hit rate= 3 winners

+ROI of 20% of $20 is $4

(total returned is $24)÷3 is $8.00 average mutuel

Bill, do you care to revise what you've already stated?

You need not reply, as this conversation's over.....Unless you want to get stubborn with me.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

How are you going to go through 20 tracks in one day?

It takes me at least 2.5 hours to do 20 tracks (including the necessary double checking) and requires me to be brutally focused.

Because the system is for dirt only, focusing on tracks with a high percentage of dirt races helps mitigate the weekend crush.

Bill C