I see things similarly. Boy are you in trouble!
IWC is the most logical choice, and kind of the double contrary play in a race where everyone is throwing down for a shot. I also liked him in the Derby as the 4th ML choice but not the second on the tote, maybe he's a better chalk play here. He just drifted up to 4/1; might be hard to pass up at that price.
Tapwrit seems to have won the best race in the field, going by TimeForm race ratings. I was on him in the Derby. Deserving second choice and 5/1 is probably fair if not compelling.
Winner of the second best race among these,
Gormley seems to be the prime threat to
on the earlier end of the pace. Seems to be lacking early wagering interest. But at 9/1 I like him better than, say,
Twisted Tom at 7/1 (!).
Patch caught my eye, too, with legit distance pedigree and upside and a prime jock for the task, but you just hate to spend money on a story horse. Not sure 11/1 tells me the funny money got spent on his Derby run and he's playable here.
J Boys is more or less the fourth most logical horse for me. Similar running style to both Taprwrit and Patch. Not sure how many BRIS "P" runners I want here in a vertical bet. I guess 10/1 isn't crazy but a way's off the 15/1 ML.
Problem with
LAL is that he doesn't win, even though he belongs here. Not sure I even want him defensively underneath vertical wagers. Certainly don't want him 5/1 as co-second-favorite to win.
Seems like
Multiplier is getting some wise guy attention. Maybe an alternative to LAL with some value and upside if you want a closer in the mix. Not sure I do.
I reckon
Senior Investment is another underlay, unless you have faith in the early money like what's going to
TT, but I don't see them as absolute tosses either. A few PA guys are on
but I just don't see him outlasting the other early runners on the lead. CJ made some interesting comments on
HH but I just can't see a case for him—he's probably only 18/1 because people are going to bet the longest shot on the board.
I'm leaning toward a chalk play out of the
,
,
and maybe work in the
,
.