Epicharis and the Mystery of his Workouts

[Blenheim]

Avoid playing any race in which the relative abilities of the horses are not clearly evident. Among all reasons why the great majority of players lose, none is more basic than their violation of that rule. Tom Ainslie, Dean of Handicapping

~

I was there at Gulfstream Park back in 89' when Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer in the BC Classic. So I’m a fan of this grandson Epicharis and I appreciate all the thought, planning, preparation and expense it took for U.Carrot Farm to send him here to run in “The Test of the Champion”. In particular all of the hard work and effort expended by trainer Hagiwara, exercise rider Aki and groom Akima.

Such great horseracing drama . . . on one of the world’s largest stages in one of the world’s most celebrated cities. We need more of it.

~

The mystery of his workouts remains in question. We know he raced in Dubai on 25 March, arrived at Miho a few days later, rested and resumed workouts shortly thereafter. His next recorded work is on 24 May at Miho, 59 days later, where Hagiwara tells us:

On Wednesday, (5/24) Epicharis worked five furlongs over the uphill woodchip course in 1:05.2 under assistant trainer Masaaki Minamida at the Miho Training Center. The horse was caught in splits of 12.6 seconds for the first eighth of a mile, 36.8 for three-eighths, and 50.7 for a half-mile.

"I am pleased with his work", Hagiwara said. He looks fine and he moved sharply. He has been doing well. Considering the long trip to Belmont via Anchorage and Chicago, I will give him one more timed work in Japan at the same course on Sunday and the last one will be at Belmont on Tuesday or Wednesday the week of the race. Paulick Report 5/26/17


I haven’t been able to find information about the Sunday work, nor have I been able to find information about what he did for those 59 days. I have no doubt this information exists.

In the interest of horse racing, in the interest of horse racing fans worldwide, in the interest of international horseracing and in the interest of future opportunities for horses bred in Japan to race in the United States, I call on U.Carrot Farm and the Japanese Racing Association to release his workout information. And, “As we continue to build the relationship and their trust, hopefully they'll continue to come back and if their horses perform well that's a good thing for everyone,” said Martin Panza, NYRA's Senior Vice President of Racing Operations. In an effort to build that trust from the very beginning, Panza and the NYRA should also request that the JRA release his workout information.

~

Enough of drama and politics, here’s what I’ve been able to piece together.

I’m trying to figure what he did for those 59 days, in particular were there any long works? I figure two weeks off since Dubai, workouts start week beginning 10 April, 46 days to account for, roughly 6 weeks. That makes things easier as I’ll work back from 24 May. Quinn in his book, “The Handicappers Condition Book” tells us:

“Once begun, the workouts should occur regularly, every five or six days. A pattern appreciated by many regulars contains a series of alternating speed and stamina works at lengthening distances, followed by a series of three or four “bottom works”, followed perhaps by a short speed blowout just prior to a race.”

I figure one work a week, which makes six, possibly seven works unaccounted for prior to 24 May. I call them the “mystery works.” When I add the “mystery works” with the work on 24 May, the work on 28 May and the work on 6 June, I’m gettin’ 9 possibly 10 works in 59 days. Nicely fits the workout model Quinn described in his book. I’ve read the works on the uphill woodchip course are “gut wrenching”, but I don’t have anything on long works. However, there is still time before the race, so I’m hopeful we get some more information.

With respect to the racing surface, they’re racing on sand in Japan so the numbers are confounding the “experts.”

The components of a Japanese dirt course (7–8 cm cushion sand layer over hard substrate; thus, in Japan, it might be preferable to refer to it as a sand course rather than a dirt course) differs from those of dirt courses used in Western countries, such as those used by the NYRA (10–12 cm cushion sandy loam layer over a 25–27 cm base layer mixed with clay/silt/sand; thus, referred to as a dirt course). The cushion sand used by the JRA is composed of river sand, which is of a fine particle size with a narrow particle size distribution.

Take a look at a few of his races on YouTube, it’s a sandstorm.

These differences between the JRA and NYRA might be caused by the differences in the composition of the cushion and base layers of dirt racetracks, which are related to vertical hardness and horizontal shear strength, primarily depending on the materials used in constructing the dirt racetracks by the JRA and NYRA, as mentioned above. In other words, there is a possibility that hoof-ground interactions differ on the dirt courses of the JRA and NYRA. We speculate that dirt courses in the NYRA may become more cohesive as the moisture content increases on the track surface (possibly easier to grip) than on dirt courses with lower moisture content because the dirt track surface used in the NYRA is primarily composed of clay/silt/sand.

Interesting article, you can find it here. http://https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5048355/ The numbers may be confounding but the trend is unmistakable – unabated improvement.

Below is the Tweets I’ve read from Mike Welsh, DRF clocker / writer:

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch Jun 3 Epicharis just released from quarantine on his way to Belmont training track.

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch Jun 3 Epicharis jogs/walks 5/8 mile reverses direction galloped 7/8 over training track with good energy and enthusiasm.

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch Jun 3 Trainer Kiyoshi Hagiwara said Epicharis weathered the long trip well, hasn't lost much weight, will gallop faster & further here tomorrow.

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch Jun 4 Japanese invader Epicharis gallops very slow 1 1/2 miles in first visit to main track.

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch 7h7 hours ago Epicharis 5/8 on training track in 106.03 walked away from pole basically blew out 3:8 in 37.07. Training track on deep side all week.

(Perhaps Welsh and other clockers and reporters should question Hagiwara about the “mystery works” and what the horse did for those 59 days).

All appears well, horse shows good energy and enthusiasm; weathered the long trip well and hasn’t lost much weight; galloped a slow mile and a half and blew out 3/8ths in 37.07 over a“training track on deep side all week”,that “short speed blowout just prior to the race” written about by Quinn. Looks like textbook works and training by Hagiwara – whew! All things considered and considering all things at stake, I’ve got to trust Hagiwara put the long works into him . . .

Finally, and for the past four days I’ve been reviewing and studying the photo of him as he was escorted off the van upon his arrival at Belmont, the Bloodhorse Photo that shows all the legging protection and Aki in the protective booties. Take a look @ the muscling just below his withers and the striations at his shoulder, never seen that before, likely due to the differing workout surfaces and uphill training in Japan; the striations of muscling where his forearm meets his chest; the striations at mid-barrel, the tight flank and smooth muscling at his stifle . . . this horse appears dead fit ready to run that mile and a half.

Should make for good drama.

Lookin’ forward to the Belmont Stakes!

[VigorsTheGrey]

http://www.xbtv.com/video/epicharis-...june-6th-2017/

[Racetrack Playa]

Thanx 4 da link Vigors ,
I always like the horses from Japan, He seems small and stout , he looks very fit, we will see how he measures up 0n Sat.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

http://www.xbtv.com/video/epicharis-...june-6th-2017/

Is it me? Or does this horse have a weird action, or gate?

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Is it me? Or does this horse have a weird action, or gate?

I read that he got the final 3/8's in 37 seconds, which was faster than (11) other 3 furlong works that day...His trainer says the racing surface will suit him just fine....Belmont racing texture said to be deep and sandy..but in Japan, it is even sandier...trainer says Belmont surface is "firmer" than Japan's....I thought the same about his gait as you did at first but I'm no expert....I have no idea what i am looking at here...I expect maybe a third place finish from him...Like Tapwrit and Senior Investment more....How about you?

[soonboomer]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

Avoid playing any race in which the relative abilities of the horses are not clearly evident. Among all reasons why the great majority of players lose, none is more basic than their violation of that rule. Tom Ainslie, Dean of Handicapping

~

I was there at Gulfstream Park back in 89' when Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer in the BC Classic. So I’m a fan of this grandson Epicharis and I appreciate all the thought, planning, preparation and expense it took for U.Carrot Farm to send him here to run in “The Test of the Champion”. In particular all of the hard work and effort expended by trainer Hagiwara, exercise rider Aki and groom Akima.

Such great horseracing drama . . . on one of the world’s largest stages in one of the world’s most celebrated cities. We need more of it.

~

The mystery of his workouts remains in question. We know he raced in Dubai on 25 March, arrived at Miho a few days later, rested and resumed workouts shortly thereafter. His next recorded work is on 24 May at Miho, 59 days later, where Hagiwara tells us:

On Wednesday, (5/24) Epicharis worked five furlongs over the uphill woodchip course in 1:05.2 under assistant trainer Masaaki Minamida at the Miho Training Center. The horse was caught in splits of 12.6 seconds for the first eighth of a mile, 36.8 for three-eighths, and 50.7 for a half-mile.

"I am pleased with his work", Hagiwara said. He looks fine and he moved sharply. He has been doing well. Considering the long trip to Belmont via Anchorage and Chicago, I will give him one more timed work in Japan at the same course on Sunday and the last one will be at Belmont on Tuesday or Wednesday the week of the race. Paulick Report 5/26/17


I haven’t been able to find information about the Sunday work, nor have I been able to find information about what he did for those 59 days. I have no doubt this information exists.

In the interest of horse racing, in the interest of horse racing fans worldwide, in the interest of international horseracing and in the interest of future opportunities for horses bred in Japan to race in the United States, I call on U.Carrot Farm and the Japanese Racing Association to release his workout information. And, “As we continue to build the relationship and their trust, hopefully they'll continue to come back and if their horses perform well that's a good thing for everyone,” said Martin Panza, NYRA's Senior Vice President of Racing Operations. In an effort to build that trust from the very beginning, Panza and the NYRA should also request that the JRA release his workout information.

~

Enough of drama and politics, here’s what I’ve been able to piece together.

I’m trying to figure what he did for those 59 days, in particular were there any long works? I figure two weeks off since Dubai, workouts start week beginning 10 April, 46 days to account for, roughly 6 weeks. That makes things easier as I’ll work back from 24 May. Quinn in his book, “The Handicappers Condition Book” tells us:

“Once begun, the workouts should occur regularly, every five or six days. A pattern appreciated by many regulars contains a series of alternating speed and stamina works at lengthening distances, followed by a series of three or four “bottom works”, followed perhaps by a short speed blowout just prior to a race.”

I figure one work a week, which makes six, possibly seven works unaccounted for prior to 24 May. I call them the “mystery works.” When I add the “mystery works” with the work on 24 May, the work on 28 May and the work on 6 June, I’m gettin’ 9 possibly 10 works in 59 days. Nicely fits the workout model Quinn described in his book. I’ve read the works on the uphill woodchip course are “gut wrenching”, but I don’t have anything on long works. However, there is still time before the race, so I’m hopeful we get some more information.

With respect to the racing surface, they’re racing on sand in Japan so the numbers are confounding the “experts.”

The components of a Japanese dirt course (7–8 cm cushion sand layer over hard substrate; thus, in Japan, it might be preferable to refer to it as a sand course rather than a dirt course) differs from those of dirt courses used in Western countries, such as those used by the NYRA (10–12 cm cushion sandy loam layer over a 25–27 cm base layer mixed with clay/silt/sand; thus, referred to as a dirt course). The cushion sand used by the JRA is composed of river sand, which is of a fine particle size with a narrow particle size distribution.

Take a look at a few of his races on YouTube, it’s a sandstorm.

These differences between the JRA and NYRA might be caused by the differences in the composition of the cushion and base layers of dirt racetracks, which are related to vertical hardness and horizontal shear strength, primarily depending on the materials used in constructing the dirt racetracks by the JRA and NYRA, as mentioned above. In other words, there is a possibility that hoof-ground interactions differ on the dirt courses of the JRA and NYRA. We speculate that dirt courses in the NYRA may become more cohesive as the moisture content increases on the track surface (possibly easier to grip) than on dirt courses with lower moisture content because the dirt track surface used in the NYRA is primarily composed of clay/silt/sand.

Interesting article, you can find it here. http://https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5048355/ The numbers may be confounding but the trend is unmistakable – unabated improvement.

Below is the Tweets I’ve read from Mike Welsh, DRF clocker / writer:

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch Jun 3 Epicharis just released from quarantine on his way to Belmont training track.

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch Jun 3 Epicharis jogs/walks 5/8 mile reverses direction galloped 7/8 over training track with good energy and enthusiasm.

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch Jun 3 Trainer Kiyoshi Hagiwara said Epicharis weathered the long trip well, hasn't lost much weight, will gallop faster & further here tomorrow.

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch Jun 4 Japanese invader Epicharis gallops very slow 1 1/2 miles in first visit to main track.

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch 7h7 hours ago Epicharis 5/8 on training track in 106.03 walked away from pole basically blew out 3:8 in 37.07. Training track on deep side all week.

(Perhaps Welsh and other clockers and reporters should question Hagiwara about the “mystery works” and what the horse did for those 59 days).

All appears well, horse shows good energy and enthusiasm; weathered the long trip well and hasn’t lost much weight; galloped a slow mile and a half and blew out 3/8ths in 37.07 over a“training track on deep side all week”,that “short speed blowout just prior to the race” written about by Quinn. Looks like textbook works and training by Hagiwara – whew! All things considered and considering all things at stake, I’ve got to trust Hagiwara put the long works into him . . .

Finally, and for the past four days I’ve been reviewing and studying the photo of him as he was escorted off the van upon his arrival at Belmont, the Bloodhorse Photo that shows all the legging protection and Aki in the protective booties. Take a look @ the muscling just below his withers and the striations at his shoulder, never seen that before, likely due to the differing workout surfaces and uphill training in Japan; the striations of muscling where his forearm meets his chest; the striations at mid-barrel, the tight flank and smooth muscling at his stifle . . . this horse appears dead fit ready to run that mile and a half.

Should make for good drama.

Lookin’ forward to the Belmont Stakes!

This horse is such a tough call. All the points you made are valid. A few other factors are favorable as well....he appears to have a high cruising speed (unlike Lani, his racing style is suited to this race).....his breeding, through a multiple G-1 winning (on dirt) son of Sunday Silence and out of a mare by a well bred horse who won Europe's top race at 1 1/2 miles, screams distance. On World Cup night, they run 4 races over their dirt surface......the only race in 2017 that was faster than it's respective race in 2016 was the UAE Derby (check the differential on the pace splits.....it's fairly dramatic). The winner, Thunder Snow, was fancied by many in Europe before he melted down in the Derby, came back to run a solid 2nd in the Guineas behind Churchill. The American 3 y.o.'s, in my opinion, are an average crop this year......so what's not to like? In the back of your mind, you are always reminded that previous versions have flopped and, in reality, you don't really know how his class stacks up. I gotta have the right price to play him.......won't know exactly what that is until I examine the field. Good luck.

[menifee]

I don't know how any serious handicappers could bet this horse unless you get 5-1 or better. You will not get that - he's going to be 3-1 or less. Given the history of Japanese invaders, the relative strength of the UAE derby, the lack of a race on his form fast enough to win this race, this horse is all hype.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by menifee

Given the history of Japanese invaders, the relative strength of the UAE derby, the lack of a race on his form fast enough to win this race, this horse is all hype.

Lani was a modest 3rd in the Belmont last year after also taking the UAE Derby. The Belmont Stakes last year was a similarly decimated field with one marquee horse.

On strict form, assessing the UAE Derby goes through Thunder Snow, Master Plan, and Lancaster Bomber. Thunder Snow's antics and the sloppy track at Churchill Downs on Derby Day unfortunately lost handicappers an opportunity to get a direct line on the race. However, Thunder Snow returned to be a solid second in the Irish 2000 Guineas behind current top Euro 3yo Churchill at a mile on the turf.

Master Plan returned to the States and laid an egg in the Peter Pan (off at 4-1) on a sloppy track. Is there an excuse for that performance? Injured--unlikely as he has 2 breezes on the turf since the race? Shipping internationally after-effects? What's maybe more relevant is the Pulpit Stakes run before the UAE Derby. Again on a sloppy track Master Plan made up ground late--after falling back on the turn--to just be held safe by stablemate Tapwrit, who is probably considered a contender in the Belmont for most.

Lancaster Bomber is interesting. He essentially has been used as Churchill's pacemaker both as a 2yo and a 3yo. He signaled some Group 1 quality (and a preference for firm going) however when he re-rallied late in the Group 1 Dewhurst at 66-1, snatching 2nd away from among others, Thunder Snow who went on to romp in a Group 1 in France next out. Lancaster Bomber then rallied for 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf. After making his 3yo debut in the UAE Derby with a solid stretch rally from off the pace, he returned to his pacemaking duties in the 2000 Guineas and again held bravely despite pressure from the start, just losing the place spot in the last several yards. He tanked in his most recent start, the Irish 2000 Guineas, when setting the pace on a yielding turf (he is now 4-0-0-0 on yielding turf).

[soonboomer]

Originally Posted by menifee

I don't know how any serious handicappers could bet this horse unless you get 5-1 or better. You will not get that - he's going to be 3-1 or less. Given the history of Japanese invaders, the relative strength of the UAE derby, the lack of a race on his form fast enough to win this race, this horse is all hype.

He's a complete throw out at 3 to 1, and a non user for me at 5 to 1. I would need closer to 10 to 1 to consider him, and I do think he has a realistic shot.......if everything goes his way.

[Benni]

Mystery regarding his workouts? Wonder if this has anything to do with it? Possible hoof issue. Received a little bute.

https://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/06.07....Stakes.pdf.pdf

Only other issue is Gormley is slightly dehydrated. Senior Investment needed accupuncture.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Benni

Mystery regarding his workouts? Wonder if this has anything to do with it? Possible hoof issue. Received a little bute.

https://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/06.07....Stakes.pdf.pdf

Only other issue is Gormley is slightly dehydrated. Senior Investment needed accupuncture.

What is the first word in the Epicharis diagnosis? I can't make it out, except that it starts with "L." Lameness?

[Mlnolan00]

Anyone who was betting Epicharis already was doing so at his/her own risk. To be frank, this colt feels too darn slow and does nothing for me on the win end and will absolutely beat me at anything less than like 12-1.

Regarding his vet records though is a whole different situation and illustrates some issues that manifest when medical records are dispersed to the public.

More likely than not, most of us would have a difficult time understanding the notes of an orthopaedic surgeon even at their most benign. Likewise, assuming the public can adequately interpret or utilize the notes from veterinarians presents similar problems.

2 grams of Bute is absolutely de rigeur with many racing outfits as evidenced by the vet records of horses from the 2017 Wood Memorial. https://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/04.06.17.WoodMemorial.pdf A horse getting a small amount of NSAIDs four days prior to a race is not showing overt lameness but most likely earning a justification for the Rx from the vet.

If the horse was lame, believe me, he'd be on more aggressive therapy and it wouldn't be listed as plainly as lameness. Handicappers should watch for the progression of the medical notes over the timeframe allowed rather than jump to conclusions over one treatment of which frankly they struggle to understand from the outset.

No one in media mentioned Always Dreaming was cross-firing but it was pretty easy to see in much of the footage pre-Preakness and therefore became an auto-toss for people such as myself. Similarly you'll be best served by observing silently and learning before making rash decisions based one one piece of information.

Learn what to look for and research what you're reading/observing and you'll be far better served in the long run than making quick decisions and asking others for help. Your own eyes are your best unbiased advocates in situations such as this.

Fwiw I'm probably keying Multiplier and am more than willing to take him at 15s ML than Epicharis at less than 5.

[AltonKelsey]

Interesting comment on cross-firing. According to google , you would be the only one on the planet who has mentioned this.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Mlnolan00

A horse getting a small amount of NSAIDs four days prior to a race is not showing overt lameness but most likely earning a justification for the Rx from the vet.

The veterinary treatment record says the horse was diagnosed with a right front lameness and you are saying there is no overt lameness (are you in a position to really confirm this?). Are we to take that to mean the record has been falsified?

So much for transparency.

By the way, 2 grams of Bute is not a small amount, its a full dose.

If the horse was lame, believe me, he'd be on more aggressive therapy and it wouldn't be listed as plainly as lameness.

What aggressive therapy can be done to a entered horse within 72 hours of its race in NY? Never mind where this aggressive therapy would be focused on, since there is no specific diagnosis, just a "possible foot".

No one in media mentioned Always Dreaming was cross-firing but it was pretty easy to see in much of the footage pre-Preakness and therefore became an auto-toss for people such as myself. Similarly you'll be best served by observing silently and learning before making rash decisions based one one piece of information.

Well, for people such as yourself, there's nearly 12 minutes of footage of Epicharis jogging a couple of days ago courtesy of NYRA.

YouTube

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by Mlnolan00

No one in media mentioned Always Dreaming was cross-firing but it was pretty easy to see in much of the footage pre-Preakness and therefore became an auto-toss for people such as myself.

No one mentioned it because it wasn't happening.