What to you look for in turf sprints?

[Lose The Juice]

Anything out of the dam To Marquet, and to a lesser extent, most Generazio horses, period.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Murph

In general, for NYRA turf sprints, do EP types show any advantage or maintain a fair win % by your records? I can only deal with minutiae on a race by race basis.

At Belmont on the inner, horses that lead early (after opening quarter) win 25% of the time. A Horse in the top three early wins about 54% of the races. On the outer, it is 24% and 57%.

At Saratoga horses that lead early (after opening quarter) win 27% of the time. A horse in the top 3 wins 53% of the races.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by pandy

EP does very well in turf sprints in general, so it's still important even though turf is more tiring than dirt. It is definitely a viable handicapping tool in Belmont turf sprints.

My general feeling regarding the Belmont turf sprints, they are tougher to handicap than dirt sprints. Consequently, I usually only bet a Belmont turf sprint when I feel I'm getting exceptional value, usually a longshot that has a solid chance. These are not good races for betting favorites, or any horse below double digit odds. EP, turf pedigrees, turf speed figures, and trainer proficiency on the turf are all useful tools in these races.

I've had a few big scores in turf sprints at Belmont so I can't knock them, even though they can be quite puzzling, but to me they are mainly a vehicle for just that type of bet, the bombs away longshot.

Excellent info, thank you. Both pieces will help me with projection ratings I am new to using but beginning to really enjoy.

Originally Posted by cj

At Belmont on the inner, horses that lead early (after opening quarter) win 25% of the time. A Horse in the top three early wins about 54% of the races. On the outer, it is 24% and 57%.

At Saratoga horses that lead early (after opening quarter) win 27% of the time. A horse in the top 3 wins 53% of the races.

You see, I had perceived SAR as having a less speed favoring turf surface than Belmont, not equal or more! Very interesting. I won't have a current data set until they both run next meeting.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Todaysracingdigest

With Belmont opening their meet on Friday, April 28, it is time for an influx of turf sprints!

I first look at trainer and jockey stats to see how they have done in the past with turf sprints. Then I look if the horse has any turf sprint experience.

One of my favorite angles are turf routers who try a turf sprint for the first time. They seem to run well a majority of the time (Remember Bobby's Kitten?)

Belmont’s Inner Turf Course for 6F have about 2/3 or 64% of its 6F race distance in the straight-a-away compared to its Widener Turf Course being slightly less at 60%.

However, both courses have long runs to the turn from the start in the 6F sprint race with the Inner Turf Course run to the turn being over ¼ mile or nearly 1.452 feet; the Widener Turf Course run from the start to the turn is about 1-3/4 furlongs or nearly 1,160 feet, but it has a slightly more liberal turning radius than the Inner Turf Course.

The turning radii of both courses are the Inner Turf Course at 450 feet and the Widener Turf Course at 543 feet.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by cj

At Belmont on the inner, horses that lead early (after opening quarter) win 25% of the time. A Horse in the top three early wins about 54% of the races. On the outer, it is 24% and 57%.

At Saratoga horses that lead early (after opening quarter) win 27% of the time. A horse in the top 3 wins 53% of the races.

Thank you, cj. Very good information.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Belmont’s Inner Turf Course for 6F have about 2/3 or 64% of its 6F race distance in the straight-a-away compared to its Widener Turf Course being slightly less at 60%.

However, both courses have long runs to the turn from the start in the 6F sprint race with the Inner Turf Course run to the turn being over ¼ mile or nearly 1.452 feet; the Widener Turf Course run from the start to the turn is about 1-3/4 furlongs or nearly 1,160 feet, but it has a slightly more liberal turning radius than the Inner Turf Course.

The turning radii of both courses are the Inner Turf Course at 450 feet and the Widener Turf Course at 543 feet.

Thank you, Cratos. Very good information.

[JohnGalt1]

I first determine class/ability.

Second is form/condition. Either a recent race or good workouts, the final workout within 14 days.

Third, speed. I use the fastest turf sprint in the pp's. If possible I do not use SA's 6 1/2 for other tracks, or other track's sprint races when going to SA.

How many 5f and 5.5 f monster sprinters couldn't handle the Breeder's cups at SA?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Who does the running...the TRAINER, or the HORSE?

Right question, wrong adverb.

[Lose The Juice]

ADVERB?

But, yeah, what possible significance might a mere trainer have?

[rsetup]

Originally Posted by reckless

Thank you, Cratos. Very good information.

How? Why?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Baron Star Gregg

Fastest closing fraction at the distance.

Serious? ....in a turf sprint?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Serious? ....in a turf sprint?

Why not? If 54 or 57% of horses running 1-2-3 at first call win, then it also means that 46 or 43% of those who aren't also win. It just may be that fastest finishers provide a higher ROI than those with the best speed. I am not saying they do or don't but I am sure not going to decrease the universe of bettable horses because of a stat.

[jay68802]

1. Breeding for turf, in sprints, turf breeding is not as important of a factor than it is in routes, but is a factor.

2. Pace figure combined with final fraction ability.

3. Running style match up.

4. Jockey

5. Trainer

[jay68802]

Lets have some fun today, Race #5 at Gulfstream.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Why not? If 54 or 57% of horses running 1-2-3 at first call win, then it also means that 46 or 43% of those who aren't also win. It just may be that fastest finishers provide a higher ROI than those with the best speed. I am not saying they do or don't but I am sure not going to decrease the universe of bettable horses because of a stat.

I keep pre race and post race profiles by distance and surface for the major tracks around the country. The very short turf sprints (less than 6F) tend to have more early speed in them than other races, but the race developments (based on top 3 finishers) are still more speed favoring than the typical race.

Like you said, that does not mean you can't win closing, but even when there's a lot of speed in the race your chances of closing are better at longer distances. To fall apart relative to the norm, those races have to be extra loaded with speed.