Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 20 votes, 3.50 average.
Old 03-29-2017, 11:56 PM   #31
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I agree. I'm looking forward to it too.

Once the racing starts, I implore cj to immediately delete any and all needless, senseless, ego-stroking pissing contest posts like the posting of checks and ADW screenshots...nobody gives a ****.

And I promise to do the same. Oh, and assess penalty points on any said deleted posts.

Thanks.
Got it. I'll finally get back home tomorrow night. I may not be able to participate Friday Handicapping wise but will soon enough.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 12:01 AM   #32
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Since you're here on this thread Greg, what's your opinion about this piece I gave out for Friday?

AQU-R5- ML 6-1 Abounding Spirit
Randall....you really know how to rub it in---THAT HORSE was gonna win me the contest ....until he scratched

Next year I'm taking no prisoners ...enjoy your stay at the top, my friend
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 12:05 AM   #33
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulerider View Post
Do I get no credit at all for the two firsters I redboarded on your thread? And after all that work...
You get credit for participating lol.

Come on now, Mule...lets see a maiden pick or two up there.

You've already got the makings of a good method

There may be something at Santa Anita we can pick out of the coal mine.
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 12:31 AM   #34
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMD4ME View Post
The year is definitely off and running when that happens and Keeneland opens! Thanks.
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 12:40 AM   #35
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt View Post
I challenge anyone in here to a contest to see who can be a worse turf handicapper than me. If a turf race is sandwiched in the middle of a pick 3 where I love the other two races to death I will go 3-4 deep and if I am lucky "catch" a 3-2 shot in the turf race. Are there any good reads on turf handicapping on USA tracks?
Like j68802 said Quinn has some good turf thoughts in Figure Handicapping. But that is only a starting point. I focused in on that book and Mike Helm's Pedigree Handicapping in the winter of 12-13. I picked up tidbits about turf from other handicapping books. A lot of jockey trainer stuff out there. Dick Mitchell's A Winning turf strategy was a help and Bill Heller's 2 turf books. But most of the progress was slowly testing things on my own and doing pedigree research. Applying sabermetric concepts to pace figures to come up with new ratings. Tracing family bloodlines to 2 turfy sire lines on both sides of the pedigree can be better than merely up front sire/damsires themselves, especially at smaller tracks. I can send you some basic info I have scanned into my documents if you'd like. Just PM me. It took me about 3 painstaking years to get a really comprehensive turf approach. I don't mind sharing some things.
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 07:03 AM   #36
EMD4ME
NoPoints4ME
 
EMD4ME's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I agree. I'm looking forward to it too.

Once the racing starts, I implore cj to immediately delete any and all needless, senseless, ego-stroking pissing contest posts like the posting of checks and ADW screenshots...nobody gives a ****.

And I promise to do the same. Oh, and assess penalty points on any said deleted posts.

Thanks.
Well since the racing hasn't started, I'll reply to your thoughtful post with a thoughtful response:

1) you know EXACTLY why I posted the check and the ADW stats. RR insinuated that I never made a bank check withdrawal on track. Once that was proven, he insinuated it was for monies deposited. Hence, the post of the relatively cold Pick 6 hit the day before.

With that said....

Thank you very much for your fair and equal treatment of all posters in all threads... you're a gem of a leader.

Don't worry. I'm not like all of you guys (90% of the people who posted in this thread). I won't do what they did (try and derail a thread).

Best of luck at the new meet everyone
EMD4ME is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 08:45 AM   #37
castaway01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,816

While we're waiting for the interesting racing to start, Andy and the Mig did some fun looks back at classic Wood Memorials, including Bold Forbes in 1976 and Gulch just catching Gone West in 1987.


Worth taking a few minutes for the trip down memory lane.
castaway01 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 09:47 AM   #38
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Nice--enjoyed it, thanks. I couldn't get my mind off that car on the track in the Bold Forbes race....anyone see that? It was a civilian sedan just cruising down the track while the race was on and horses going by. Odd.
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 01:11 PM   #39
HuggingTheRail
BC Canada
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 2,286
I usually gravitate to maiden claimers, with a vulnerable or lukewarm favourite, so Friday's last race has caught my eye - and with a field of 10!!

Quick notes

1 - toss
2 - FTS
3 - ML Favourite - not really impressed by his last start...
4 - FTS
5 - plodder, possible for bottom of verticals
6 - beaten 2x favourite, rider change, wouldn't be surprised if this one goes off as post time fav. Could win, but expect this one to be an underlay. Wouldn't be suprised if this one becomes a double digit race maiden
7 - taking the drop from 2 non-descript MSW starts, though speed figs put him in the hunt. A threat, and maybe worth a shot if he goes off at his 5-1 ML
8 - FTS
9 - Decent race in debut. Off two months, took 4 weeks to work after debut, then off another 3 weeks before next work. A threat, but has question marks
10 - dropping slightly in price off a fair debut


None of the horses with previous starts jump off the page. If the 8 looks good in the paddock and on post parade, he's my pick

8 w 7,9,10
HuggingTheRail is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 05:13 PM   #40
whodoyoulike
Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
Quote:
Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail View Post
I usually gravitate to maiden claimers, with a vulnerable or lukewarm favourite, ...

Quick notes

1 - toss
2 - FTS
3 - ML Favourite - not really impressed by his last start...
4 - FTS
5 - plodder, possible for bottom of verticals
6 - beaten 2x favourite, rider change, wouldn't be surprised if this one goes off as post time fav. Could win, but expect this one to be an underlay. Wouldn't be suprised if this one becomes a double digit race maiden
7 - taking the drop from 2 non-descript MSW starts, though speed figs put him in the hunt. A threat, and maybe worth a shot if he goes off at his 5-1 ML
8 - FTS
9 - Decent race in debut. Off two months, took 4 weeks to work after debut, then off another 3 weeks before next work. A threat, but has question marks
10 - dropping slightly in price off a fair debut


None of the horses with previous starts jump off the page. If the 8 looks good in the paddock and on post parade, he's my pick

8 w 7,9,10

Why do you gravitate to MC?

And, then you select or will favor a FTS, I just don't get it.
whodoyoulike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 07:36 PM   #41
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
Quote:
Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail View Post
I usually gravitate to maiden claimers, with a vulnerable or lukewarm favourite, so Friday's last race has caught my eye - and with a field of 10!!

Quick notes

1 - toss
2 - FTS
3 - ML Favourite - not really impressed by his last start...
4 - FTS
5 - plodder, possible for bottom of verticals
6 - beaten 2x favourite, rider change, wouldn't be surprised if this one goes off as post time fav. Could win, but expect this one to be an underlay. Wouldn't be suprised if this one becomes a double digit race maiden
7 - taking the drop from 2 non-descript MSW starts, though speed figs put him in the hunt. A threat, and maybe worth a shot if he goes off at his 5-1 ML
8 - FTS
9 - Decent race in debut. Off two months, took 4 weeks to work after debut, then off another 3 weeks before next work. A threat, but has question marks
10 - dropping slightly in price off a fair debut


None of the horses with previous starts jump off the page. If the 8 looks good in the paddock and on post parade, he's my pick

8 w 7,9,10
Based on your highlighted statement, I look for big or modest improvement out of the #5-Martino, and #1-Coral Ridge, and prior to seeing if any unusual betting action is present on any FTS, I'll take #7-Luzinski(Bull) in the Win spot. If I'm able to get out to the OTB, may make an exacta play on these.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
FakeNameChanged is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 07:46 PM   #42
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,176
I've had a change of heart. There will be no confusing contest in this thread. This thread will be for exactly what ReplayRandall intended. Nothing more, nothing less.

Thanks.

If anyone responds further to this contest stuff in this thread, and tries to make trouble, all mods are to give that person enough points to ban them for a while.

Thanks.
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 07:57 PM   #43
Murph
Public Handicapper
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,450
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Nice--enjoyed it, thanks. I couldn't get my mind off that car on the track in the Bold Forbes race....anyone see that? It was a civilian sedan just cruising down the track while the race was on and horses going by. Odd.
Like you, I could hardly see anything else. Some goodfellows keeping a close eye on their action maybe? 1976, what a year.
Murph is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 08:24 PM   #44
johnhannibalsmith
Registered User
 
johnhannibalsmith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I've had a change of heart. There will be no confusing contest in this thread. This thread will be for exactly what ReplayRandall intended. Nothing more, nothing less.

Thanks.

If anyone responds further to this contest stuff in this thread, and tries to make trouble, all mods are to give that person enough points to ban them for a while.

Thanks.
Where did you move the stuff to about the contest he was talking about? I scanned a couple of forums and probably overlooked it.

Edited: Nevermind, found it in selections in case anyone else is looking as well.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."

-Robert James Smith, 1989

Last edited by johnhannibalsmith; 03-30-2017 at 08:26 PM.
johnhannibalsmith is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-30-2017, 09:11 PM   #45
HuggingTheRail
BC Canada
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 2,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike View Post
Why do you gravitate to MC?

And, then you select or will favor a FTS, I just don't get it.
I find that (as a general statement) there are more beaten favs in MC than most races. Horses that have ran 2nd or 3rd for a few starts get bet more heavily than I feel they should

I will try to find a sleeper horse - maybe one or two starts with mediocre form. If I can't find one of those, I will look at a FTS

In this race, I pass on all those with starts as I don't see any that are likely to improve much off of their past races, and a couple will not offer value

So, I ended up on a FTS .... think there is value there
HuggingTheRail is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:19 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.