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02-03-2017, 05:58 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by no breathalyzer
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Likewise, one of my best days ever... like yesterday... DNF, vanned off, claimed, came back and won at around 2-1 off a much, much higher morning line (I believe), then won two more of her next three.
Elegant Magic AKA Maggie!
Edited because I just realized maybe we both remember it like yesterday because the two races were a month apart. 
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"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
Last edited by johnhannibalsmith; 02-03-2017 at 05:59 PM.
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02-05-2017, 10:33 AM
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#17
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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2 horses running at AQ with THAT angle--both in the 9th race today
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02-06-2017, 06:29 AM
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#18
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Here's my contribution to THAT angle: Consider only horses back to the races within 35 days---showing workouts in that time.
Horses eased up and on the shelf for months afterward--probably don't fit the spirit of the angle.
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02-06-2017, 08:22 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 163
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Notice that was a nw2L at AQU. Seems more and more nw2L claiming races being carded. Anyone have/willing to share stats on how many claiming races are carded at nw2L vs. all others ? I remember the time where the major's ie NY, So cal. circuits didnt even card them.
thanks
jh
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02-06-2017, 09:34 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Here's my contribution to THAT angle: Consider only horses back to the races within 35 days---showing workouts in that time.
Horses eased up and on the shelf for months afterward--probably don't fit the spirit of the angle.
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I think you'll find that it will be tough to exclude too many as most jurisdictions will require at least one workout in front of the vet to be taken off the vet list for being vanned off and likewise you can't go too long without a race or work before you must have at least one to enter. Some places is thirty days, some forty-five, some two in sixty... kind of depends, but I think with both of those rules in place it can't be too easy to find many exclusions without works in 30+ days off of a pulled up/vanned off.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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02-10-2017, 12:06 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Horse gets taken up right after the break in distress and gets vanned off. Still a play if he returns in 30 days? Seems like that would be more difficult to "fake it."
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02-11-2017, 07:53 AM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
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2nd race S.A. today...take a look at...before it runs...
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got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
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02-11-2017, 04:21 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sammy the sage
2nd race S.A. today...take a look at...before it runs...
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Won 16.80
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02-12-2017, 09:02 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
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can you say "Deja Vu"
Before the race...try looking at today's 4th at S.A...stakes...seems outclassed...BBBuuuuttttttt.........
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
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02-12-2017, 12:02 PM
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#25
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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In this gist you can see the performance of an array of "troubled trip" comments applied to a universe of approximately 10K races:
https://gist.github.com/deltalover/d...02b3d4c4a4ae44
The ROI of a horse having the keyword "van" (including vanned) appears to be very low: 0.0 when combined with a layoff (over 35 days) and 0.58 for no layoffs.
The fact that this angle produces some very long priced winners from time to time, simply confirms the fact that all the horses in race have some probability to win but in the long run these "black swains" represent very bad betting options.
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whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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02-12-2017, 04:31 PM
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#26
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loose on the lead
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: mosquito cove NY
Posts: 6,604
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aqu r8,  fleeting gold fit this to a tee, now im a believer
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radio friendly unit shifter
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02-12-2017, 04:38 PM
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#27
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
In this gist you can see the performance of an array of "troubled trip" comments applied to a universe of approximately 10K races:
https://gist.github.com/deltalover/d...02b3d4c4a4ae44
The ROI of a horse having the keyword "van" (including vanned) appears to be very low: 0.0 when combined with a layoff (over 35 days) and 0.58 for no layoffs.
The fact that this angle produces some very long priced winners from time to time, simply confirms the fact that all the horses in race have some probability to win but in the long run these "black swains" represent very bad betting options. |
You're no fun. Did you try the term "walked off" and no layoff?
I would have thought "wide--no layoff" would have a higher IV.
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 02-12-2017 at 04:42 PM.
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02-12-2017, 05:24 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alwaysonpoint36
aqu r8, fleeting gold fit this to a tee, now im a believer |
31.00 to win
At Sa horse stopped.
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02-12-2017, 06:35 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 109
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Oaklawn's last race today, second time starter KATHY'S DAY RATE ran 2nd @ 24-1. Her one and only other race was "pulled-up, walked-off".
Nailed the $400 exacta!
Last edited by Prof.Factor; 02-12-2017 at 06:36 PM.
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02-12-2017, 10:00 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alwaysonpoint36
aqu r8, fleeting gold fit this to a tee, now im a believer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Secondbest
31.00 to win
At Sa horse stopped.
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The Aq horse was laid off 5+ months, does not qualify on 30 day rule.
SA horse also not qualified, Bobbled at start, eased. No walk off or vanned off.
However, the #2 Cousin Tino in 6th race at GP did qualify, was taken back at the start and finished 6th by almost 5 BL's. Maybe worth another look if he comes right back.
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