View Poll Results: Odds lines -- How do you do?
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Never consider them
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16 |
15.84% |
Rarely consider them
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10 |
9.90% |
Take them with a grain of salt
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47 |
46.53% |
Faithfully follow them and may use a fudge factor
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28 |
27.72% |
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06-28-2017, 03:51 PM
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#91
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott Sidewater
Totally on point, what good will an odds line do you when the 1/9 shot, who by the way opened with an "in your face" $5000 win bet into a $186 win pool, will go up to 7-5 after the bell, and the runner up, who was 2-1 or 5-2 at post closes as the 4-5 favorite? I'll tell you what good it's good for: absolutely nothing, just as Edwin Starr sang. Not that this happens every half hour, but it happens enough as to reduce the effectiveness of pre-race odds lines used for betting. ...
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I'm trying to understand Why someone would ..... " who by the way opened with an "in your face" $5000 win bet into a $186 win pool ...".
They should've realized that size of a bet into a $186 win pool would drive the odds to 1/9.
So, why would someone do this?
to submit a late cancel or partial because others would've bet on other horses or because other people would have hammered it further?
or, some other reason?
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 06-28-2017 at 03:52 PM.
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06-28-2017, 05:18 PM
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#92
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,653
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
I'm trying to understand Why someone would ..... " who by the way opened with an "in your face" $5000 win bet into a $186 win pool ...".
They should've realized that size of a bet into a $186 win pool would drive the odds to 1/9.
So, why would someone do this?
to submit a late cancel or partial because others would've bet on other horses or because other people would have hammered it further?
or, some other reason?
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the guy doesn't really have to do to much cancelling. at the end of the betting cycle you have conditional wagers that come in, pool analysis, and batch bettors step up to the plate. when all of them kick in you get big moves.
in retrospect, you have to not only be a good handicapper, but you must also have a real good ability to guess what will happen with odds after the race has been run. if you are able to make that parlay you can win millions at this game every year that the game keeps going.
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06-28-2017, 05:28 PM
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#93
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I would switch to the Hong Kong product...but I find their offered past-performances to be woefully inadequate for the handicapping that I do.
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I can’t really comment on why your style of handicapping wouldn’t be compatible with the information that the HK Jockey Club provides. They offer a free and somewhat comprehensive “Form Guide & Speed Chart” for every racing date. I don’t use it myself, but I did notice few things that might be of interest that differs from a typical DRF.
Along with the basic stuff like Class, distance run, split times broken down, weight carried and individual race commentary, they also mention days off between races, weight of the animal itself in each racing event and any incident or infirmity that may have compromised the performance. The Speed Chart also provides a vivid diagram of the anticipated overall race-to-be-run profile with additional commentary on each entry. And yes it’s all in English!
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06-28-2017, 09:11 PM
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#94
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
the guy doesn't really have to do to much cancelling. at the end of the betting cycle you have conditional wagers that come in, pool analysis, and batch bettors step up to the plate. when all of them kick in you get big moves.
in retrospect, you have to not only be a good handicapper, but you must also have a real good ability to guess what will happen with odds after the race has been run. if you are able to make that parlay you can win millions at this game every year that the game keeps going.
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I remember reading an article that Billy Walters had made similar early large Sports bets in an attempt to change odds on his real bet. Honestly, I didn't understand the how and/or why's of his moves but it sounds like something which you're describing.
But, in regards to horse racing if that horse isn't your primary bet and cancelling (or partial) isn't involved, I don't see how they can make money because it's pari-mutuel.
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 06-28-2017 at 09:20 PM.
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06-28-2017, 09:15 PM
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#95
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I can’t really comment on why your style of handicapping wouldn’t be compatible with the information that the HK Jockey Club provides. They offer a free and somewhat comprehensive “Form Guide & Speed Chart” for every racing date. I don’t use it myself, but I did notice few things that might be of interest that differs from a typical DRF.
Along with the basic stuff like Class, distance run, split times broken down, weight carried and individual race commentary, they also mention days off between races, weight of the animal itself in each racing event and any incident or infirmity that may have compromised the performance. The Speed Chart also provides a vivid diagram of the anticipated overall race-to-be-run profile with additional commentary on each entry. And yes it’s all in English!
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A couple of years ago because of the comments and posts on here, I also looked at the HKJC PP's provided and I agree with Thaskalos their PP's are difficult to follow when one is used to N.A. styled PP's.
Just to be clear there is a lot of info being provided especially with their replays (a couple different views). I think every race for each entry which is commendable. I wish we had that over here with our PP format.
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 06-28-2017 at 09:22 PM.
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06-28-2017, 11:37 PM
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#96
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Just a personal observation about odds lines, and this dovetails with Thas' posts, but one thing making at least a rough odds line does for me is keep me away from the worst bets, which are horses with fairly good chances to win at fairly low odds.
In other words, you think a horse has the best chance to win the race, and he's 2 to 1. Without an odds line, I would have tended to just bet that horse to win. But the odds line keeps me honest-- if I assign probabilities to the rest of the horses in the race, do I really give that horse a 34 percent or greater chance of winning the race (really a 40 percent or greater, because I need a cushion)? Oftentimes if I do the line and realistically estimate the chances of the other contenders, I will find I only give that horse a 25 percent chance, or a 20 percent chance. I still think he's got the best shot, but the betting value isn't there. So I pass the race (unless I can figure out a likely overlay in the exotics).
I think LOTS of players make exactly these sorts of negative value bets, because they don't have an odds line (or a strong enough notion in their head of what the odds should be) to stop them.
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I agree. Somebody else's oddsline is meaningless unless they are god like. Any version of an oddsline of your own as you said keeps you out of non winning situations. That in itself is a win.
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06-28-2017, 11:51 PM
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#97
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
A couple of years ago because of the comments and posts on here, I also looked at the HKJC PP's provided and I agree with Thaskalos their PP's are difficult to follow when one is used to N.A. styled PP's.
Just to be clear there is a lot of info being provided especially with their replays (a couple different views). I think every race for each entry which is commendable. I wish we had that over here with our PP format.
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I don't quite understand why they haven't already produced the exact same format for HK racing as is available here.
I believe all the information is already available, it's just a formatting issue.
I'm sure equibase and/or beyer can produce speed figures, no big deal.
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06-29-2017, 10:04 AM
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#98
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
I don't quite understand why they haven't already produced the exact same format for HK racing as is available here.
I believe all the information is already available, it's just a formatting issue.
I'm sure equibase and/or beyer can produce speed figures, no big deal.
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And while the HK Jockey Club offers very readable and comprehensive information at no charge, you’ll be the first one on line to pay for the DRF version and later complain about the price and inaccuracy of the Beyer figures.
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06-29-2017, 12:59 PM
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#99
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
And while the HK Jockey Club offers very readable and comprehensive information at no charge, you’ll be the first one on line to pay for the DRF version and later complain about the price and inaccuracy of the Beyer figures.
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As popular as Hong Kong's racing is...it's odd that no HK pace and speed figures are currently available for sale on the internet. The customer should be able to pay for what he wants.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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06-29-2017, 01:14 PM
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#100
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
As popular as Hong Kong's racing is...it's odd that no HK pace and speed figures are currently available for sale on the internet. The customer should be able to pay for what he wants.
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Is that a new feature that’s available from the standard DRF? I didn’t realize that they offered speed and pace figures as part of their standard format.
I was also under the impression that many seem to want to generate their own figures. If that’s the case, the race split times are certainly posted with every race shown for each entry in a race in the HK Speed Form.
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06-29-2017, 01:18 PM
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#101
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Is that a new feature that’s available from the standard DRF? I didn’t realize that they offered speed and pace figures as part of their standard format.
I was also under the impression that many seem to want to generate their own figures. If that’s the case, the race split times are certainly posted with every race shown for each entry in a race in the HK Speed Form.
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Yes, they are certainly available on DRF and from various other sources...TimeformUS, BRIS, Equibase, etc.
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06-29-2017, 01:24 PM
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#102
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Is that a new feature that’s available from the standard DRF? I didn’t realize that they offered speed and pace figures as part of their standard format.
I was also under the impression that many seem to want to generate their own figures. If that’s the case, the race split times are certainly posted with every race shown for each entry in a race in the HK Speed Form.
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Sorry, Nitro...I responded to you because I thought you were serious with your Honk Kong commentary here. I didn't realize that you were just trolling.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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06-29-2017, 02:37 PM
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#103
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Sorry, Nitro...I responded to you because I thought you were serious with your Honk Kong commentary here. I didn't realize that you were just trolling.
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You don’t have to apologize.
It’s unfortunate that by now you couldn’t recognize that I’m certainly serious about discussing the HKJC information and any attributes of its racing product.
I just find it hard to believe that with all of the thousands of people using it that some here would find it out of their realm of understanding, just because they’ve been so indoctrinated (and perhaps brainwashed) by the local horseracing format.
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06-29-2017, 03:00 PM
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#104
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
You don’t have to apologize.
It’s unfortunate that by now you couldn’t recognize that I’m certainly serious about discussing the HKJC information and any attributes of its racing product.
I just find it hard to believe that with all of the thousands of people using it that some here would find it out of their realm of understanding, just because they’ve been so indoctrinated (and perhaps brainwashed) by the local horseracing format.
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You find WHAT "hard to believe"? That an American-based player would like a set of highly-detailed
PPs before betting his money?
__________________
Live to play another day.
Last edited by thaskalos; 06-29-2017 at 03:08 PM.
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06-29-2017, 03:19 PM
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#105
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
You find WHAT "hard to believe"? That an American-based player would like a set of highly-detailed
PPs before betting his money?
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No, actually that any American based player would find the all the details provided by the HKJC inadequate, just because its formatted differently from what their used to. It doesn’t take any pre-requisite in any special discipline to comprehend the information that’s offered (Assuming they know how to read English). I would agree that they might actually find it a bit overwhelming at first glance, because there’s an awful lot more pertinent info available particularly when it comes to a horse’s physicality.
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