Odds lines are useless

[Capper Al]

Let's look at what the odds lines are good for.

1. Ordering your selections
2. Expressing the selections in an opinionated way numerically.
3. Understanding what the public might think.
4. Indicating that a horse deserves a second look if the tote odds are too high or too low.

That's all I can thing of.

[cashmachine]

5) Computing whether horse is overlay or not (given probability of win)

[banacek]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

3. Understanding what the public might think.

For me, not in the least. It is to clarify what I think about a race, so when I look at what the public thinks, I have a clear idea how whether to bet the race and, if so, how.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by cashmachine

If you distinguish so many types of races and approach every type differently, how do you estimate you success for every type? It takes quite a few bets to get statistically significant estimate.

Track testing and record keeping and over 35 years of experience, including 20+ consecutive years of study without betting. And of course, my bottom line.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by cashmachine

5) Computing whether horse is overlay or not (given probability of win)

This is where they are worthless for me and why I said you have to take them with a grain of salt. Suppose your friend says that he is an antique collector of vases. And suppose that 3 out of 4 times he gets tricked into buying a counterfeit. This would mean that he was only right about 1 out of 4 times about finding an antique just like our average handicapper. Now you are strolling through the market with this friend and come upon a vase selling for $20.00. He says it's worth $50.00. Would you buy it? And that is what using an odds line to find value is like.

[banacek]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

This is where they are worthless for me and why I said you have to take them with a grain of salt. Suppose your friend says that he is an antique collector of vases. And suppose that 3 out of 4 times he gets tricked into buying a counterfeit. This would mean that he was only right about 1 out of 4 times about finding an antique just like our average handicapper. Now you are strolling through the market with this friend and come upon a vase selling for $20.00. He says it's worth $50.00. Would you buy it? And that is what using an odds line to find value is like.

No because there is a 25% chance it is worth $50, so I would only buy it if I was getting more than 3-1 ($80) Your friend is only offering me 3-2.

Would I bet a horse that has a probability of 25% and is paying $5? No.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by banacek

No because there is a 25% chance it is worth $50, so I would only buy it if I was getting more than 3-1 ($80) Your friend is only offering me 3-2.

Would I bet a horse that has a probability of 25% and is paying $5? No.

Here's how people lose money. Ignore the fact he valued the vase at $50 which would have been a loss with his strike rate. Let's say he thought it was worth $120. The math you applied suggests a profit. But in reality the stated premise assumes he can accurately predict an antique only 25% of the time. What makes us think he can predict value any better?

[banacek]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Here's how people lose money. Ignore the fact he valued the vase at $50 which would have been a loss with his strike rate. Let's say he thought it was worth $120. The math you applied suggests a profit. But in reality the stated premise assumes he can accurately predict an antique only 25% of the time. What makes us think he can predict value any better?

I can't answer that any better than raybo did a couple of posts back...experience. I set poor odds line 15 years ago...now mine are very good...and my longterm analysis of my lines supports that or I wouldn't use them anymore. Also I don't have to predict the odds..they are right there to see..only have to be good at the probability..that is a tough thing to do, but it is possible.

[Magister Ludi]

1. Val and Wynn bid at online penny auctions.

2. Wynn is a “power bidder”.

3. Wynn’s strategy is “tag and defend”. That is, Wynn will bid on an item at the beginning of an auction to “tag” it as his and aggressively bid throughout the auction to defend “his” item that he’s tagged.

4. Wynn frequently gets caught up in the heat of bidding and, on the average, pays more than market value for the items on which he has bid.

5. Val is a “jumper”.

6. Val strategy is to simultaneously watch multiple auctions.

7. Val sets his autobidder program to automatically "jump in" late in an auction and place a bid on any undervalued item at 300 ms to auction expiration.

8. Wynn loves to “stomp” the bids of jumpers like Val. Wynn will cheerfully pay more than an item is worth just for the exhilaration of winning an auction and to prove to people like Val that winning at any cost is the most important goal.

9.As the auction price of an item approaches fair market value, Val extricates himself from the clutches of Wynn and his ilk and jumps in on the auction of another undervalued item.

[dannyhill]

Guess i should watch that show auction hunters.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by banacek

I can't answer that any better than raybo did a couple of posts back...experience. I set poor odds line 15 years ago...now mine are very good...and my longterm analysis of my lines supports that or I wouldn't use them anymore. Also I don't have to predict the odds..they are right there to see..only have to be good at the probability..that is a tough thing to do, but it is possible.

Good for you. I'm guessing but you might know what value looks like and not follow a strict math made line?

[banacek]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Good for you. I'm guessing but you might know what value looks like and not follow a strict math made line?

Actually I do make up a strict mathematical line and my results have improved significantly (now that I am pretty good at doing it). When I didn't make up a line, I would look at a horse and say...7-1 on that horse is a great bet...basically doing a line in my head. But my emotions sometimes took over and all of a sudden it was 5-2 on that horse is a great bet..when it wasn't....especially during a streak (winning or losing).

Some people can do it without letting their emotions take over...not me. By putting the line down on paper, I have more structure and that has increased my confidence and results.

[Sapio]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

This is where they are worthless for me and why I said you have to take them with a grain of salt. Suppose your friend says that he is an antique collector of vases. And suppose that 3 out of 4 times he gets tricked into buying a counterfeit. This would mean that he was only right about 1 out of 4 times about finding an antique just like our average handicapper. Now you are strolling through the market with this friend and come upon a vase selling for $20.00. He says it's worth $50.00. Would you buy it? And that is what using an odds line to find value is like.

Hi Capper Al

According to my friend (TM), you need look no further than what JCapper (Jeff Platt) is able to accomplish with his JRating using agents (different handicapping schools). TM estimates that Jeff can essentially breakeven playing all tracks, all distances, and all surfaces. Each agent is essentally a probability line. Agents are aggregated to form a final line (or ranking). Mind this accomplished without any conditioning or optimization.

TM estimates that with proper conditioning and optimization (will not speculate on conditioning or optimization) an additional 30 -50% roi is not unreasonable (conditioned on number plays and tracks).

Do really believe this would be possible without accurate probability lines (oddslines)?

Thomas Sapio

[Sapio]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

1. Val and Wynn bid at online penny auctions.

2. Wynn is a “power bidder”.

3. Wynn’s strategy is “tag and defend”. That is, Wynn will bid on an item at the beginning of an auction to “tag” it as his and aggressively bid throughout the auction to defend “his” item that he’s tagged.

4. Wynn frequently gets caught up in the heat of bidding and, on the average, pays more than market value for the items on which he has bid.

5. Val is a “jumper”.

6. Val strategy is to simultaneously watch multiple auctions.

7. Val sets his autobidder program to automatically "jump in" late in an auction and place a bid on any undervalued item at 300 ms to auction expiration.

8. Wynn loves to “stomp” the bids of jumpers like Val. Wynn will cheerfully pay more than an item is worth just for the exhilaration of winning an auction and to prove to people like Val that winning at any cost is the most important goal.

9.As the auction price of an item approaches fair market value, Val extricates himself from the clutches of Wynn and his ilk and jumps in on the auction of another undervalued item.

Hi Magister Ludi

I like it.

Thomas Sapio

[GaryG]

I attended a Barry Meadow seminar at Del Mar in the early 90s. One thing I learned from him is that you can massage your line. You might have a horse at 4-1 and think "you know, I like him more than that". Then you can make him 3-1 and adjust the others proportionally. I saw him bet $500 on a 3-2 shot with a cold exacta because he believed he should have been 4-5. If you don't have the ability to create an accurate odds line fuhgedaboudit, The Morning Line is worthless.