The Greatest of All Time - Bob Baffert

[thaskalos]

IMO...the misguided notion that "there are isolated angles and situations that are profitable" is exactly what has been supporting these unscrupulous system-selling shysters that we still see around these days.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...the misguided notion that "there are isolated angles and situations that are profitable" is exactly what has been supporting these unscrupulous system-selling shysters that we still see around these days.

I gave out this one 7 years ago, it's still profitable:

Horse must have been claimed in last race no lower than $5K followed by an immediate lay-off of no more than 100 days (give or take), coming back to race with a class hike. Odds must be 9/2 or higher. No other conditions required concerning distance, track, trainer or surface needed.....Claim+Lay-off+Hike------->$$

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

But again, what Dilanesp is saying is correct. There are isolated angles and situations that are profitable, but finding enough to make any of it worthwhile is an entirely different ballgame.

We live during a period of time when our savings get us almost NOTHING in a bank...and a hedge fund manager would KILL for a 15% annual return rate in the stock market. And there are profitable angles out there just waiting for us...but they are not "worth our time". We'd rather spend our valuable time debating about vital topics on online chat rooms.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I gave out this one 7 years ago, it's still profitable:

Horse must have been claimed in last race no lower than $5K followed by an immediate lay-off of no more than 100 days (give or take), coming back to race with a class hike. Odds must be 9/2 or higher. No other conditions required concerning distance, track, trainer or surface needed.....Claim+Lay-off+Hike------->$$

Do you have a database?

[classhandicapper]

Thaskalos,

Here's the data from 1/1/2018 through 5/31/2021. I had no idea what the result was going to be because I haven't tested it for awhile. I didn't go back before 2018 because that data has been archived. It would take some time for me to download it all from backups and reload it. It also might blow out the capacity of my database. But like I said, when I tested from 2014 through around 2019 it was profitable. I removed some information from the report (like the track and horse's name) because it might reveal the angle.

I should add that the volume of them seems to be declining because sample sizes in the 80s were larger per year and that was only NYRA. This is covering all the real major tracks and there's hardly any. I know why, but I can't say without revealing too much.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I gave out this one 7 years ago, it's still profitable:

Horse must have been claimed in last race no lower than $5K followed by an immediate lay-off of no more than 100 days (give or take), coming back to race with a class hike. Odds must be 9/2 or higher. No other conditions required concerning distance, track, trainer or surface needed.....Claim+Lay-off+Hike------->$$

Do I understand you right?

ANY claim that is raised in price off its last race is a play...assuming that the odds for the next race are at least 9/2, and there is no long layoff?

[ReplayRandall]

Must have standard 45 day minimum lay-off, period....

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Thaskalos,

Here's the data from 1/1/2018 through 5/31/2021. I had no idea what the result was going to be because I haven't tested it for awhile. I didn't go back before 2018 because that data has been archived. It would take some time for me to download it all from backups and reload it. It also might blow out the capacity of my database. But like I said, when I tested from 2014 through around 2019 it was profitable. I removed some information from the report (like the track and horse's name) because it might reveal the angle.

I should add that the volume of them seems to be declining because sample sizes in the 80s were larger per year and that was only NYRA. This is covering all the real major tracks and there's hardly any. I know why, but I can't say without revealing too much.

I don't know if I am reading this chart right. In one spot you show 2 plays on the same day...and in another spot you show a 7-month gap in-between plays. Is this a comprehensive chart?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...the misguided notion that "there are isolated angles and situations that are profitable" is exactly what has been supporting these unscrupulous system-selling shysters that we still see around these days.

I think you missed the entire point of the discussion.

You are looking for angles that make piles of money. I agree that those DON'T exist (at least that I know of). However, there are rare situations that do.

I had an automated "place" play (around 1-2 plays per day) that I won thousands of dollars with at NYRA tracks in the 2006-2007 period (or thereabouts). It probably existed for a number of years, but that's when I found it (via a lot of manual work). It stopped being worth it when NYRA raised the track take on WPS bets and switched to "net pool pricing" calculations on the place and show pools. The combination of those two changes lowered the ROI by about 5%. I was forced to abandon it as the crumbs that remained were too narrow to be sure they even existed. I still look at it from time to time, but the returns declined as the computer boys grew. If you limit it to just stakes races it's still fairly close to break even last I checked. So if you have a generous rebate you might be able to make lunch money.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't know if I am reading this chart right. In one spot you show 2 plays on the same day...and in another spot you show a 7-month gap in-between plays. Is this a comprehensive chart?

That's every single horse that the angle flagged for an automated play in the time frame I noted. The two on the same day were different tracks.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

That's every single horse that the angle flagged for an automated play in the time frame I noted. The two on the same day were different tracks.

Were you looking at multiple tracks when a flagged play wasn't found in 7 months?

[dilanesp]

Churchill suspended Baffert for 2 years.

That's a significant punishment

[cutchemist42]

So glad to see him suspended. This will really hurt him as many come to him for Derby winning.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Churchill suspended Baffert for 2 years.

That's a significant punishment

That's a nice start!

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cutchemist42

So glad to see him suspended. This will really hurt him as many come to him for Derby winning.

Yeah he is going to lose a lot of 3 year olds the next 2 years even if he is in thr sport.