I'm An Andy Serling Fan But..

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

can't hold me to this, but I thought I once heard that Denman makes $10k a day at DelMar

I don't think we should hold you to this

[Tara73]

My compliments to Serling. I believe he has been doing well since leaving Saratoga. Take notice when a favorite isn't among his first 3 selections. Listen to his analysis and why he doesn't like the favorite. I don't think any other public handicapper goes where Serling goes and opens himself to criticism from people like me.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Tara73

My compliments to Serling. I believe he has been doing well since leaving Saratoga. Take notice when a favorite isn't among his first 3 selections. Listen to his analysis and why he doesn't like the favorite. I don't think any other public handicapper goes where Serling goes and opens himself to criticism from people like me.

I would think its the opposite, i think that if you pick 3-5 shots, you are open to be criticized, not sure people are going to be critical of someone taking a shot at a good looking mid ranged or long priced horse.

One of Andy's strengths is that he isn't afraid of picking a favorite if he thinks that horse is the right horse, there's a commentator on TVG who wants to appear sharp and picks bad longshots just to say he picked a longshot, Andy won't do that, if he likes a favorite, that's who he's picking.

[Tara73]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I would think its the opposite, i think that if you pick 3-5 shots, you are open to be criticized, not sure people are going to be critical of someone taking a shot at a good looking mid ranged or long priced horse.

One of Andy's strengths is that he isn't afraid of picking a favorite if he thinks that horse is the right horse, there's a commentator on TVG who wants to appear sharp and picks bad longshots just to say he picked a longshot, Andy won't do that, if he likes a favorite, that's who he's picking.

This is a good point. Serling would say he's not.going to pick against the favorite when there's no reason to like another horse. If he's not betting that other horse why pick it. All public handicappers should have this responsibility.

[Stillriledup]

Sorry for the bump, i want to mention to all the guys who are sick and tired of the jocks in NY 'going too slow' Andy pointed this out the other day on the MSG racing report show, this is the type of stuff that puts Andy ahead of most public handicappers/analysts, not everyone would have said this even if they were smart enough to notice it in the first place.

Great job by Andy calling attention to this 'Epidemic'.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Sorry for the bump, i want to mention to all the guys who are sick and tired of the jocks in NY 'going too slow' Andy pointed this out the other day on the MSG racing report show, this is the type of stuff that puts Andy ahead of most public handicappers/analysts, not everyone would have said this even if they were smart enough to notice it in the first place.

Great job by Andy calling attention to this 'Epidemic'.

Don't tell me that you are gonna start apologizing for the bumping of old threads now that you've surpassed 20,000 posts.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Don't tell me that you are gonna start apologizing for the bumping of old threads now that you've surpassed 20,000 posts.

many really get personally and deeply offended if a post older than 3 hours gets bumped. Maybe one day ill figure out why this is the case.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

many really get personally and deeply offended if a post older than 3 hours gets bumped. Maybe one day ill figure out why this is the case.

Keep bumping! Especially when it applies.

Great point. Yes, Andy has been pointing it out and no he doesn't have to. He is to be commended.

It's great to watch and listen to Richard Migliore and Andy Serling point out politely just how terrible many of the NYRA rides are.

In my opinion, most of the NYRA colony should call WWE and ask for a job. They could choke each other out and get paid similar money.

And why not? Cornelio already has the most famous hammerlock in the world !!!

[classhandicapper]

The only possible solution to this problem is to consider riding styles in your evaluation of the likely race setup. Your job as a handicapper is to figure what is likely to happen, not what you think should happen.

Close to 40 years ago I used to try to find horses that had a speed edge and could shake loose. I'd whine every single time Jorge Velasquez took one of my speed horses back. I thought he was riding foolishly and should ride more like Cordero. Maybe I was right about how he should ride, but at a certain point it didn't matter. I was the idiot that kept betting him on speed horses expecting him to do something that didn't match his style of riding. Later, when Julie Krone adopted a similar style, I knew to temper my enthusiasm on a main speed when she rode one. I also knew I might be able to upgrade the chances of the other speed horse in a two speed race if she was riding one.

It's ridiculously tough to project these pace scenarios unless they are very extreme anyway. But it has to help if you adjust. You aren't going to get the riders to change.

[Harvhorse]

My opinion of why Andy is not talking up a lot of winners lately is simply that the races he has to deal with are either chaos, lesser of evils or too bad to have a strong opinion. Thats what I think. I follow what Newsday`s Matthews is doing and he`s not doing well either. To make money at Belmont now one needs a lot of patience to wait for spots where you have an opinion that most others do not like.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Harvhorse

My opinion of why Andy is not talking up a lot of winners lately is simply that the races he has to deal with are either chaos, lesser of evils or too bad to have a strong opinion. Thats what I think. I follow what Newsday`s Matthews is doing and he`s not doing well either. To make money at Belmont now one needs a lot of patience to wait for spots where you have an opinion that most others do not like.

Andy's analysis however has continued to be excellent, regardless of outcome. He doesn't seem to be "off" in his picks. I agree, he's had to obviously pick a lot of horses in crappy races (lesser of 5 evils in some cases).

Yes, you do need to wait and pass many races lately.

I love his comments about jockeys lately. Very proud of him for speaking up and calling it what it is out there.

[aaron]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The only possible solution to this problem is to consider riding styles in your evaluation of the likely race setup. Your job as a handicapper is to figure what is likely to happen, not what you think should happen.

Close to 40 years ago I used to try to find horses that had a speed edge and could shake loose. I'd whine every single time Jorge Velasquez took one of my speed horses back. I thought he was riding foolishly and should ride more like Cordero. Maybe I was right about how he should ride, but at a certain point it didn't matter. I was the idiot that kept betting him on speed horses expecting him to do something that didn't match his style of riding. Later, when Julie Krone adopted a similar style, I knew to temper my enthusiasm on a main speed when she rode one. I also knew I might be able to upgrade the chances of the other speed horse in a two speed race if she was riding one.

It's ridiculously tough to project these pace scenarios unless they are very extreme anyway. But it has to help if you adjust. You aren't going to get the riders to change.

A really good handicapper,once told me not to handicap races on what you think the jockey should,but be more cognizant of what the jockey will do.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by aaron

A really good handicapper,once told me not to handicap races on what you think the jockey should,but be more cognizant of what the jockey will do.

I do agree with that. The problem is these guys are so inconsistent. When you think they will choke, the send like gangbusters. When there's so much speed, they all choke to death. Then when there's just 1 speed, they all go at it. They do the opposite just often enough to make it impossible to bet according to what you think they will do.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I do agree with that. The problem is these guys are so inconsistent. When you think they will choke, the send like gangbusters. When there's so much speed, they all choke to death. Then when there's just 1 speed, they all go at it. They do the opposite just often enough to make it impossible to bet according to what you think they will do.

I just did a study that encompassed 1 year of races at every racetrack in America broken down distance, surface, and the running style of each horse in the race. I had loads of data with various running style combinations to analyze.

My conclusion was, in general, it's really tough to predict the probable race flow correctly on a consistent basis unless it looks very extreme. Even then you will be wrong fairly often. I think if you put a lot of emphasis on probable race flow in marginal situations, you will feel brilliant when things go according to plan (which will encourage you), but there will be a boatload of races where you will be wrong.

I still look at the running styles and riders to try figure it out, but I put less emphasis on my predictions now when I am thinking about the fair odds.

[aaron]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I just did a study that encompassed 1 year of races at every racetrack in America broken down distance, surface, and the running style of each horse in the race. I had loads of data with various running style combinations to analyze.

My conclusion was, in general, it's really tough to predict the probable race flow correctly on a consistent basis unless it looks very extreme. Even then you will be wrong fairly often. I think if you put a lot of emphasis on probable race flow in marginal situations, you will feel brilliant when things go according to plan (which will encourage you), but there will be a boatload of races where you will be wrong.

I still look at the running styles and riders to try figure it out, but I put less emphasis on my predictions now when I am thinking about the fair odds.

I agree, if you are going to base your bets on what you think the flow will be,your bottom line is in trouble.On a long range basis,it just doesn't work out. There is so much more involved in a bet. For instance,betting Jacobson,the last few weeks is a big losing preposition.Betting Rudy,just as bad unless you caught one or both of his bombs. Linda Rice has also been off,the last couple of weeks. Looking at the trainers,is probably more important than the flow. I feel one of the hardest things to do in racing is eliminating cold trainers,no matter how good their horses look,especially at short prices. What makes this even harder is that the trainer pattern of the cold trainer can be a positive move.