Good Solid Judgment

[Teach]

"It’s fraught with peril!" one of my fellow teachers remarked. "Not a good idea," another one said.

I had been asked (this was several years ago) by the school’s principal to offer a new course in our social studies dept. The course’s name: "Deciding." Sounds harmless. Innocent. What can be so controversial about a course called: "Deciding." Aren’t we all faced with of a myriad of decision-making tasks each and every day: "What shall I wear?" "Where will I have lunch?" "Should I buy that new set of golf clubs?"

Yet, when you’re dealing with a bunch of young, impressionable, adolescent teen-agers, a course called "Deciding" can take on a whole new meaning. Some in the community were calling the course: "Values Clarification." They said that the potential existed for the person who was selected to teach the course — in this case, your truly – to instill his or her values into the decision-making process.

Hey, sports fans, or should I say racing fans, I wasn’t about instill my values on these young cherubs.

Oh -- the course – it went for a semester. Actually kinda interesting. Lots of: What would you do? How would you handle? Many thinking opportunities. The course did have its merits. But — it was just too controversial. Some said that "it could lead to brainwashing." Hey, no skin off my back. Just keep paying me so I can analyze the speed and endurance of thoroughbred racehorses.

Speaking of thoroughbred racehorses, this ill-fated course would have been perfect. I coulda used a refresher, myself. How many decisions do we horseplayers have to make during the course of an afternoon at the track, or betting at home in front of our computer? Dozens?

Do I play this race, or not. How do I play it? Straight or a Gimmick? Do I take a chance on this longshot? Does this horse have the breeding to win on the turf at first asking? Why is this horse being bet so heavily?...Should I jump on board? Is this horse a false favorite?

Well, that’s what this course was all about: Making decisions. No, we didn’t getting into racing (the thought had crossed my mind; but I needed the job). Yet, in racing, we do get into decision-making each and every day. As I said to the kids, "Study the facts, look over all the information, analyze what you’ve learned, and then, make a decision based on good, solid judgment."

[DJofSD]

Interesting post. Provocative.

"Study the facts, look over all the information, analyze what you’ve learned, and then, make a decision based on good, solid judgment."

I would quickly add that once a decision was made, to either think through the consequences of the decision if it had not yet been acted upon, or, reflect upon the results of acting upon the decission.

For example, how many handicappers review their wagers and re-handicap races afterwards?

[rufus999]

Since your post addresses the issue of betting strategies as it relates to decision making, lets remember that a myriad of solutions exist for any given race coupled with an unforseen jumble of random elements. The pressure of having to make a handful of decisions in a matter of minutes and do so with an unbiased eye is the difference between success and failure. The only way to learn how to deal with that kind of pressure is to either study business administration in Japan or join the marines. Sure as heck you ain't gonna learn it at the track!

rufus

There was an interesting recent program on decision making on BBC tv

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/prog.../tx/decisions/

It is becoming a field of increasing interest and relates strongly to the horrendously bad decisions and self delusions made by "me too" companies in sub prime financing, for example.

Many in UK regard a long time successful handicapper as having the mental toughness, agility and decision making capability far greater than any CEO.
The main difference is that the handicapper pays for his own decision mistakes, whereas the company pay the CEO whether he/she makes mistakes or not.

[Dave Schwartz]

This is a very interesting topic. One that I have been doing a significant amount of research into.

Of course, my nature is that I am more interested in decision-making systems than I am seat-of-the-pants methods.


In fact, the greatest technological advance I have ever made in my own horse racing endeavors is the focus of a new workshop I am doing. The final decision is key.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz