Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk
I don't know Harvilles Law but I make probability curves based on projected speed figures and then do a calculation of the likelihood of each horse winning based on the naive assumption that the curves are independent. The result is useful but needs a lot of adjustment as you point out.
Speed horses will outperform and closers will underperform for the win spot. This is less true for the lower placings.
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Yes of course.
The closers are at a handicap in sprint distances but less so for the minor placings.
But in my -partial- calculations the early speed is not factored in.
Only wire to wire.
Play this game with a friend:
He tasks you to study all the race cards of the day and then he locks you into a dark room without tv. After the races he comes in and asks you to name the winners. You register a certain score, say 25%.
This is experiment number 1 and it lasts for one thousand years.
Now play this:
Again he locks you in tha dark room but this time he announces the winners to you and you have to name the seconds.
This is experiment number 2 and it lasts for another thousand years.
But you will register a lower score, perhaps 23%.
Of course if you make random guesses then your success rate in experiment 1 will be 1/N and in experiment no 2 it will be 1/(N-1), higher.
But I mean using your tested speed model you lose in the game of seconds.
Then if you experiment more for the third placed horses given thefirst two, you will score higher. The second placed horse is the discrepancy.
I believe this happens with all speed models.