Churchill Downs. Are you listening? Tapeta!

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Sure, why wouldn't the most watched dirt race on the planet with the most history, pageantry, and allure carve up their track and make it fake dirt?

Because there would be fewer breakdowns not only at CD but at many other tracks?

The Kentucky derby is still the race that everyone wants to win..If CD went synthetic, many tracks would follow suit. Very few want to prep for the derby on synthetic(there are exceptions).

The reason why Keenland went back to dirt, is because it could no longer hold the Breeders Cup because many (including Jess Jackson), refuse to run on synthetic. .

The same goes for Dubai.

[bisket]

Plans for New York and Maryland to have only 1 facility makes having a man made racing surface included a must. You can't risk losing your license when you don't have another track to move your races like Churchill. I can't see Saratoga wanting to move races to Belmont or vice versa. So I'd say Saratoga will need to construct a man made track as well. Maybe the handicapping industry would be better off if Churchill switched to Tapeta. 2 surfaces is already a problem. Adding a 3rd surface will be a nightmare. I think having just Tapeta would be a win for DRF.

https://paulickreport.com/news/the-b...-for-approval/

[Inner Dirt]

I won't bet $2 on a synthetic track race, they do not mix well with my handicapping methods.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

I won't bet $2 on a synthetic track race, they do not mix well with my handicapping methods.

Time and time again, and since Woodbine first added Tapeta, I have fund NO DIFFERENCE at most places whatsoever....Different methods may have found what I have not however.

Poltrack, however, was a disaster.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Time and time again, and since Woodbine first added Tapeta, I have fund NO DIFFERENCE at most places whatsoever....Different methods may have found what I have not however.

Poltrack, however, was a disaster.

Obviously our methods are different. I am a pace handicapper and the numbers I came up with at Golden Gate made zero sense, along with every other artificial track. I was just basically assigning Beyers to all the race calls, making adjustments for each track and variants I calculated.



The number adjustment in a sprint race 1/2 mile time between the inner dirt track at Aqueduct (+20) and Finger Lakes (-2) would make the AQ horse
5 1/4 lengths faster to the 1/2 mile call if they ran identical times on tracks with similar variants. With variants the same a 46 half at AQ and 45 at FL are approximately similar performances. I would assume, run up and track configuration cause the differences.


I mostly am using this to see if I can catch a lone front runner or there will be a pace battle that sets things up for the stalkers and closers. Once Beyer sold figures to the Racing Form I stopped saving them, so pulling things out of
my ass a typical dirt 1-1/8 race where the horses run in the 90's for the total distance a 6F pace number would typically be in the 60-80 range. Take that same group and put them on either of the artificial tracks, and that 60-80 sinks as low as the 40's. In fact number wise at the same class levels 1/2 mile pace numbers at an artificial track in a 6F race look as slow or slower as pace numbers of 1 1/8 races on dirt tracks.


I have no explanation, blindly comparing my numbers it looks like the jockeys ride differently on artificial compared to dirt, almost like it is a typical turf race where they often are running faster at the end than at the beginning.

Sorry for the long confusing post, just read the bolded and comment on that.

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Obviously our methods are different. I am a pace handicapper and the numbers I came up with at Golden Gate made zero sense, along with every other artificial track. I was just basically assigning Beyers to all the race calls, making adjustments for each track and variants I calculated.



The number adjustment in a sprint race 1/2 mile time between the inner dirt track at Aqueduct (+20) and Finger Lakes (-2) would make the AQ horse
5 1/4 lengths faster to the 1/2 mile call if they ran identical times on tracks with similar variants. With variants the same a 46 half at AQ and 45 at FL are approximately similar performances. I would assume, run up and track configuration cause the differences.


I mostly am using this to see if I can catch a lone front runner or there will be a pace battle that sets things up for the stalkers and closers. Once Beyer sold figures to the Racing Form I stopped saving them, so pulling things out of
my ass a typical dirt 1-1/8 race where the horses run in the 90's for the total distance a 6F pace number would typically be in the 60-80 range. Take that same group and put them on either of the artificial tracks, and that 60-80 sinks as low as the 40's. In fact number wise at the same class levels 1/2 mile pace numbers at an artificial track in a 6F race look as slow or slower as pace numbers of 1 1/8 races on dirt tracks.


I have no explanation, blindly comparing my numbers it looks like the jockeys ride differently on artificial compared to dirt, almost like it is a typical turf race where they often are running faster at the end than at the beginning.

Sorry for the long confusing post, just read the bolded and comment on that.

yes but this isn't about you, yes Tapeta races run differently and require actually considering closers and those just off the pace, esp at Gulfstream and PID, and Woodbine

there will be dirt racing, the question is where

Saratoga's ridiculously deep dirt track led to two unnecessary deaths, because the fastest horses in the world had no cushion to grab into, to slow down and glide to victory

which is exactly what Tapeta allows for, and has a much better safety record accordingly

this breakdown didn't happen once but twice on two big days in front of many now turned off fans

NYRA needs to take this seriously and stop being egotistic about their "best racing" (hardly anymore) or "all is well" mentality, not helping

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

yes but this isn't about you, yes Tapeta races are run differently

there will be dirt racing, the question is where

Saratoga's ridiculously deep dirt track led to two unnecessary deaths, because the fastest horses in the world had no cushion to grab into, to slow down and glide to victory

which is exactly what Tapeta allows for, and has a much better safety record accordingly

this breakdown didn't happen once but twice on two big days in front of many now turned off fans

but NYRA proceeds like the Soviet Union, like nothing happened, just wipe the memory from the record books and all is well

Just curious, why the unnecessary snotty comment?

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Just curious, why the unnecessary snotty comment?

a fact, this isn't about you

opposite of snotty actually

[sjk]

Racing has not shown itself to be very good at attracting new players so you might want to look at it from the point of view of the ones they have who have bet many races through the years and what might cause them to find a different pastime.

You say tapeta racing is different, go figure it out. Like a new puzzle.

Those of us who have invested a lot of time and money in getting our arms around dirt and/or turf racing may not stick around to do that. The handicapping literature will be of little help. If you like analyzing data there is very little of it.

No doubt the CAW teams have managed to get there which will make it double tough for any of the rest of us to compete.

So you will need replacements for many players who either throw up their hands or tap out due to inscrutability of the races.

[Tom]

NYRA not the best racing..... enough said.
Idiot at work.

LOTS of the fastest horses run over Toga track, no problem.
Deep?
Says who?

YOU have ZERO facts to say why two horses broke down
You have no proof that the dirt was to blamr.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

I have no explanation, blindly comparing my numbers it looks like the jockeys ride differently on artificial compared to dirt, almost like it is a typical turf race where they often are running faster at the end than at the beginning.

That was 100% true on the old synthetics. I don't know about now because I pay no attention to synthetic racing at all anymore. But to be honest, smart jockeys also adjust how they ride from day to day on the same dirt or turf track. The smart ones recognize day to day changes in the surface and adjust how they aggressive they get to match the surface.

That's an underrated and misunderstood complication to using pace figures to figure out which horses have the most early speed.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

a fact, this isn't about you

opposite of snotty actually

I was responding to 46 Zilzal's comment on my post where he said he sees a big difference in Tapeta and Poly. I posted that we probably have different handicapping methods as to me they both suck equally. I then explained how I handicap, then you blindside me with an insult. To me that is really odd.

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

I was responding to 46 Zilzal's comment on my post where he said he sees a big difference in Tapeta and Poly. I posted that we probably have different handicapping methods as to me they both suck equally. I then explained how I handicap, then you blindside me with an insult. To me that is really odd.

no insult intended, apologies

was just trying to say that some tracks may add Tapeta for the sake of the sport, regardless of legacy dirt betting strategies understandably being different

races on Tapeta do require different thinking by those wagering

I do think Tapeta is harder for the CRWs also, just watched the Los Al winner get punched down to 9-1 from over 20-1 as they left the gate - now that's a real insult and I'm not sure how much more of that the average bettor can take

[Profesor]

Originally Posted by Augenj

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...thetic-surface

Gulfstream installed Tapeta 2 years ago and it’s run into the ground their handle has been down 25% or more,since then,NYRA is installing Tapeta at Belmont hopefully they will use it in the winter and only for off the turf races during turf season spring,summer,fall if they start to card races on Tapeta during the turf season they will have the same faith as the dummy Gulfstream operators same goes for CD if they go that route

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Sheffwed

no insult intended, apologies

was just trying to say that some tracks may add Tapeta for the sake of the sport, regardless of legacy dirt betting strategies understandably being different

races on Tapeta do require different thinking by those wagering

I do think Tapeta is harder for the CRWs also, just watched the Los Al winner get punched down to 9-1 from over 20-1 as they left the gate - now that's a real insult and I'm not sure how much more of that the average bettor can take

It's not for the sake of the sport if it kills the sport entirely...now is it?

like castaway said, just end it now if this is how it's going to be