*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

Exotics don't pay that much either except the pick 4's and pick 5. Going to keep
practicing and learning this week till I am comfortable on what horses to play to win. I dropped my odds from 3-1 to 5-2 at the small tracks and got hit under
2-1 twice after gate opened I am trying to figure out a way to know exactly which horse to bet instead of having to make a decision, because I always pick the wrong one.

See if we can hit the Pick-4 @ WRD starts in the 2nd race.

EASY WINNERS are

2nd #3 MAJESTIC RIDE

3RD #2 TOSKIKO

NO 4TH RACE PICK

5TH #6 MR BLACK GOLD

1-2-3 has the #6--and BOSS has the 1

so I will go with 3/2/1,6/6 for my pick-4 Tues

@ WRD

[NorCalGreg]

"Easy Winners" are suddenly hard to come by---when I bet

Greenie reports good things about LAD...and both BOSS & 1-2-3 agree on DADDY'S GONE 8-1 in the 6th.

I'll take that bet before looking at the pride of West Virginia--MOUNTAINEER.

[oughtoh]

Greg check Thistle Downs 5th race tomorrow the number 8 horse. I think he is one of your speed plays, it is only 5.5fur, not a route but he is 10-1. I might be wrong, trying to learn to look out for them. Sent it to you because you are the expert.

[NorCalGreg]

MNR 3rd race p-3


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[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

Greg check Thistle Downs 5th race tomorrow the number 8 horse. I think he is one of your speed plays, it is only 5.5fur, not a route but he is 10-1. I might be wrong, trying to learn to look out for them. Sent it to you because you are the expert.

LOL..I'm hardly an expert--but will take a good look--thanks Ed

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

Greg check Thistle Downs 5th race tomorrow the number 8 horse. I think he is one of your speed plays, it is only 5.5fur, not a route but he is 10-1. I might be wrong, trying to learn to look out for them. Sent it to you because you are the expert.

A couple red flags go up with TALENT MAN---the 1st being he hasnt been more than 3-1 in his last 10 showing. Why on earth would he suddenly be 10-1 today?

He's blessed with quarter-horse speed--so he's won 5 of his last 10. Today there are at least 3 other "need-the-lead" types in...so when that gate opens the pressure is going to be hellacious to the turn...especially since he's parked on the outside.
My guess is he's not going to have much left when they turn for home....but his trainer's winning everything in sight--so who knows?

I like the class-dropper BETTER SHINE @ 9-2, but think I'll pass on that race.

Good luck

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Anyone notice the big E-1 winner Speedy Huntur $66.40 in the 4th @ LAD?

After checking the horse's running lines..to my dismay he fit a spot-play.....that I already have programmed!!

Well...he almost fit--remember all mechanical plays have to have strict rules? He fit the spirit of the play---but not exactly the rules I had to put in.

Here's the premise of the play---a horse blows out 1/2 mile---then literally stops running, goes way wide, whatever. Very common maneuver to workout a horse, while his finsh looks bad. A lot of times there will be a distance switch next race after this race/workout. There will almost always be some other changes--class drop, rider switch, surface switch. You usually won't see obvious equipt changes--blinkers, juice, etc.
The trainer wants to appear to be some hapless gumshoe who doesnt know what the heck he's doing.

In reality, he knows EXACTLY what he's doing. It's a thing of beauty when it's pulled off perfectly.

My spot play calls for the horse to be within 2 lengths of the lead---1st 2 calls. Then drop back min 6 lengths to the 3rd call...and what he does after that doesn't matter, but usually will continue his fade. Once in a while...you'll see a horse drop back say 7 lengths--3rd call....and maintain that 7 length distance behind to the finish. That makes this play extra powerful when that occurs---that is what I call a "manufactured" line. The horse just dropped back 7 lengths...and maintains that? That isn't normal.

Anyhoo---SPEEDY HUNTER did something to ruin my day--he was 2&1/4 lengths behind at the first call---missing my rules by a quarter length.

He was a maiden--not a problem---dropped in class, switched distance, switched jockeys, switched surface.

Foiled by one-fourth of a length---here's his running lines leading up to today:

This is why I hate horse racing 💈

[NorCalGreg]

Two Top-4 ABILITY plays @ Bel today:

One is actually 5th--but he's so close I left him in.

The qualifier is 7TH RACE OUR CARAVAN 15-1

The horse two points behind, in 5th...is 9th RACE E WARFARE 20-1

They are in different races--E WARFARE has a bunch of longshots on the screen for ABILITY dominance-- --so left that one in.

[green80]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Anyone notice the big E-1 winner Speedy Huntur $66.40 in the 4th @ LAD?

After checking the horse's running lines..to my dismay he fit a spot-play.....that I already have programmed!!

Well...he almost fit--remember all mechanical plays have to have strict rules? He fit the spirit of the play---but not exactly the rules I had to put in.

Here's the premise of the play---a horse blows out 1/2 mile---then literally stops running, goes way wide, whatever. Very common maneuver to workout a horse, while his finsh looks bad. A lot of times there will be a distance switch next race after this race/workout. There will almost always be some other changes--class drop, rider switch, surface switch. You usually won't see obvious equipt changes--blinkers, juice, etc.
The trainer wants to appear to be some hapless gumshoe who doesnt know what the heck he's doing.

In reality, he knows EXACTLY what he's doing. It's a thing of beauty when it's pulled off perfectly.

My spot play calls for the horse to be within 2 lengths of the lead---1st 2 calls. Then drop back min 6 lengths to the 3rd call...and what he does after that doesn't matter, but usually will continue his fade. Once in a while...you'll see a horse drop back say 7 lengths--3rd call....and maintain that 7 length distance behind to the finish. That makes this play extra powerful when that occurs---that is what I call a "manufactured" line. The horse just dropped back 7 lengths...and maintains that? That isn't normal.

Anyhoo---SPEEDY HUNTER did something to ruin my day--he was 2&1/4 lengths behind at the first call---missing my rules by a quarter length.

He was a maiden--not a problem---dropped in class, switched distance, switched jockeys, switched surface.

Foiled by one-fourth of a length---here's his running lines leading up to today:

This is why I hate horse racing 💈

I'm giving it to the trainer change before last out and the BIG class drop from open maidens at OP to state breds at LAD.

[NorCalGreg]

Here is the Late Pick-3 from Belmont--ABILITY . That "mode" seems to win a lot.

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[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

I'm giving it to the trainer change before last out and the BIG class drop from open maidens at OP to state breds at LAD.

Whoever you're giving it to...I didn't get any

[oughtoh]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

A couple red flags go up with TALENT MAN---the 1st being he hasnt been more than 3-1 in his last 10 showing. Why on earth would he suddenly be 10-1 today?

He's blessed with quarter-horse speed--so he's won 5 of his last 10. Today there are at least 3 other "need-the-lead" types in...so when that gate opens the pressure is going to be hellacious to the turn...especially since he's parked on the outside.
My guess is he's not going to have much left when they turn for home....but his trainer's winning everything in sight--so who knows?

I like the class-dropper BETTER SHINE @ 9-2, but think I'll pass on that race.

Good luck

-NCG

Thank you for the info.

[green80]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Whoever you're giving it to...I didn't get any

Makes two of us.

[NorCalGreg]

FLX 1-2-3 method did well today. Anyone else get any big winners? Post em up

[green80]

And another E-1 winner at LAD, 2nd race Kylie's Cutie 22.80