The Handicapper's Cafe

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

My main point was if you "erased" all of the speed/pace figures for a given race
you would not be entirely lost....nothing more.

I know what you mean, Max...and I am not trying to be a smartass here, because I really respect your opinion.

I am just a little confused by all the negativity towards speed and pace figures.

This is a very difficult game to beat...and we have to use every tool that we can get our hands on.

The speed and pace figures don't deserve the bad rap that they get...and those who criticize these figures the most don't even know how to interpret them properly.

Even Andy Beyer was using his speed figures wrong in the beginning...and he is the one who is credited with their popularization.

You don't just bet on the horse with the best last Beyer...and then curse the figures when you lose.

REAL "figure handicapping" is a lot more complicated than that...

[raybo]

Originally Posted by raybo

Calder Race 1 - "Play FWC"

2,4,8 3/1 odds or higher

Originally Posted by raybo

CrC Race 2 - Alt FV"

4,6,1 (3/1 or higher)

Originally Posted by raybo

Race 3 - "Pass - 20% No velocities)

Race 4 - "Alt FV"

7,8,2 (3/1 or higher)

Race 5 - "Alt FV"

1,7,6 (3/1 or higher)

Race 6 - "Pass - No Velocities"

Race 7 - "Pass - No Velocities"

Race 8 - "Alt FV"

2,5,11 (3/1 or higher)

Race 9 - "Alt FV"

5,4,1 (3/1 or higher)

Race 10 - "Play FWC"

1,2,4 (3/1 or higher)

Race 11 - "Alt FV"

9,3,8 (3/1 or higher)

Race 12 - "Alt FV"

6,1,5 (3/1 or higher)

Results from CrC 5/28/2012

Race 1 - 8,4,5,6
Race 2 - 1,6,3,4

Race 4 - 2,7,1,4
Race 5 - 7,1,2,3


Race 8 - 7,9,2,8
Race 9 - 4,3,1,5
Race 10 - 7,1,5,3
Race 11 - 4,(9 Disqualified),15,5,2
Race 12 - 8,1,3,2

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

My main point was if you "erased" all of the speed/pace figures for a given race
you would not be entirely lost....nothing more.

No. You wouldn't be completely lost.
You could watch the paddock and post parade and tote board.
You could see who the best riders are on.
You might even look at the breeding.
Without pace and speed figures, the payouts would go up.
Your hit rate would be less, but that would be compensated for by the higher payouts.

Having said all of that, I would not play the game without an adequate set of pace and speed figures. How the Europeans do it on limited info defies me.
But there are punters there who seemingly do okay.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

No. You wouldn't be completely lost.
You could watch the paddock and post parade and tote board.
You could see who the best riders are on.
You might even look at the breeding.
Without pace and speed figures, the payouts would go up.
Your hit rate would be less, but that would be compensated for by the higher payouts.

Having said all of that, I would not play the game without an adequate set of pace and speed figures. How the Europeans do it on limited info defies me.
But there are punters there who seemingly do okay.

What makes you think the big players in Europe don't use figures?

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by cj

What makes you think the big players in Europe don't use figures?

I don't doubt that.
But I was referring more to the average "Joe" wagerers like myself.
Time Form figs and Racing Post numbers were not available (in the sheets I saw) when I went to Europe in the 90s.

[Itamaraca]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The speed and pace figures don't deserve the bad rap that they get...and those who criticize these figures the most don't even know how to interpret them properly.

I disagree. You want to use and support figures, fine. But where does it follow that this means you're more enlightened than someone who doesn't use/support them? Try to apply this argument to other areas and see the absurdities you end up with.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Itamaraca

I disagree. You want to use and support figures, fine. But where does it follow that this means you're more enlightened than someone who doesn't use/support them? Try to apply this argument to other areas and see the absurdities you end up with.

And I disagree with you.

I don't care what your handicapping approach is...there will be people who are going to criticize it.

Those who criticize speed and pace figures conveniently forget to tell us what their OWN handicapping approach is.

You want to criticize speed and pace figures...fine.

But tell us what your OWN handicapping approach is...so we can see how much more "enlightening" your OWN handicapping methods are.

Don't argue just for the sake of arguing.

It's easy to just be a "critic"...

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I know what you mean, Max...and I am not trying to be a smartass here, because I really respect your opinion.

I am just a little confused by all the negativity towards speed and pace figures.

This is a very difficult game to beat...and we have to use every tool that we can get our hands on.

The speed and pace figures don't deserve the bad rap that they get...and those who criticize these figures the most don't even know how to interpret them properly.

Even Andy Beyer was using his speed figures wrong in the beginning...and he is the one who is credited with their popularization.

You don't just bet on the horse with the best last Beyer...and then curse the figures when you lose.

REAL "figure handicapping" is a lot more complicated than that...

I agree, figures can be very helpful, depending on who makes them and how they must be interpreted. The problem comes into the picture when you start trying to select a figure to use for a horse. Last best, best, last 2, last 3, best of last 2, best of last 3, etc., etc..

When I used to use pace figures, I used them only for form analysis, but found that the ones I was trying to use didn't appear to adequately reflect a horse's performance, often enough for my purposes, so I abandoned figures completely and developed my own "method" to replace them. I don't regret the decision at all, but having said that, I can certainly understand how a few players use them successfully.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Itamaraca

I disagree. You want to use and support figures, fine. But where does it follow that this means you're more enlightened than someone who doesn't use/support them? Try to apply this argument to other areas and see the absurdities you end up with.

And another thing...

I never said that I am more enlightened than someone who doesn't use/support speed and pace figures.

Nor have I ever criticized any other handicapping approaches out there.

What a player wants to use is his own personal choice.

But this argument that..."speed and pace figures don't work"...is just ridiculous.

There are negatives about all the handicapping styles out there...

[raybo]

CrC 5/29/2012 - 3/1 minimum odds for all picks

Race 1 - "Pass - No Velocities"

Race 2 - "Pass - No Match" - "Alt FV":

2,7,5

Race 3 - "Pass - No Velocities"

Race 4 - "Pass - No Match" - "Alt FV":

5,6,3

Race 5 - "Pass - No Velocities"

Race 6 - "Pass - No Velocities" - "Alt FV":

7,6,3

Race 7 - "Pass - No Velocities"

Race 8 - "Pass - No Velocities"

Race 9 - "Play FWC":

3,1,5

[traynor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The teacher needs to strut his stuff on occasion...or else he stands to lose the attention of the class.

A stunningly impressive performance that not only raised the bar, but put it several stories up and left the ladder accessing it for others to follow. After some 30+ years handicapping, I don't impress easily. That was truly magnificent, and a sterling example of an approach that many would benefit by understanding the thought processes involved.

What I see in your analysis--and what I see lacking in the analysis of those who slavishly rely on figures alone for insight--is that your analysis is of the specific horses in this race, entered against this specific field of competitors, under these very specific race conditions and circumstances.

The highest compliment I can give you is that I wish your posting had been mine, and this response were yours. Oh, well--perhaps next time.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by traynor

I wish your posting had been mine, and this response were yours. Oh, well--perhaps next time.

We're waiting for your posting.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by traynor

A stunningly impressive performance that not only raised the bar, but put it several stories up and left the ladder accessing it for others to follow. After some 30+ years handicapping, I don't impress easily. That was truly magnificent, and a sterling example of an approach that many would benefit by understanding the thought processes involved.

What I see in your analysis--and what I see lacking in the analysis of those who slavishly rely on figures alone for insight--is that your analysis is of the specific horses in this race, entered against this specific field of competitors, under these very specific race conditions and circumstances.

The highest compliment I can give you is that I wish your posting had been mine, and this response were yours. Oh, well--perhaps next time.

Thanks very much for the kind remarks.

I too have been handicapping for 30 years...and am often called "old-fashioned" because of my handicapping approach to this game.

I am "numbers" oriented...but do not necessarily allow these numbers to form my opinion of what my bet should be.

I use the numbers to create an image in my mind of how the race is likely to unfold...and then rely on my general handicapping knowledge to guide me in determining how the race "dynamics" are likely to affect the individual horses in the race.

It's a slow and time consuming process, and it keeps me up late at night...but it gives me the sort of confidence that I don't think I can find in computer-assisted handicapping.

I may be wrong about that though...and I don't rule out computer software in the future.

As I am getting older...time is becoming a more precious commodity...

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

We're waiting for your posting.

Don't hold your breath. I don't post race predictions.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by raybo

Results from CrC 5/28/2012

Race 1 - 8,4,5,6
Race 2 - 1,6,3,4

Race 4 - 2,7,1,4
Race 5 - 7,1,2,3


Race 8 - 7,9,2,8
Race 9 - 4,3,1,5
Race 10 - 7,1,5,3
Race 11 - 4,(9 Disqualified),15,5,2
Race 12 - 8,1,3,2

It would be really helpful in understanding your approach if you indicated results as "dollars out, dollars in." The results above cannot be used directly to determine which bets would have been made and which passed without using the results charts to access the actual odds in each race. It seems that if your objective is to demonstrate how your application determines wagers, that information would be very helpful to include in your results.

I don't know how many people would be willing to cross check selections with the results charts to work out which of the selections would have been wagers, and which would have been passed as having unacceptably low odds. Even though the final odds are not the same as the odds that existed at the time the wagers would have to have been made, as you said before, you use enough of a "fudge factor" to compensate for that deficiency.

Your approach looks really interesting, and it would be great if you could include a running tally of how the selections you post are doing.