pls. explain this bet down to me

[Half Smoke]

.................


today, Aqueduct race 9, a Maiden Claimer - the #11 horse Another Shot

he was bet down to almost even money from the far outside post in a field of 9

his 2 previous races he finished 4th and 6th - unimpressive speed figs

they were Maiden Specials at Belmont and Saratoga but to me that can't come close to justifying a bet down such as this

my best stab at the reason is this:

there is something in human nature that leads bettors to believe one horse is much better than the others

of course, this doesn't happen all the time - sometimes a fave goes off at 3/1

but still

thanks


*

[jay68802]

Solid jockey and trainer. MSW to Maiden Claiming. Both the and had already seen Maiden Claiming and failed. As far as speed goes, I have ranked second in the race. And his best finish came at the distance of today's race.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by jay68802

And his best finish came at the distance of today's race.

he never before ran a today's distance - one mile

his previous race he finished 4th at 6 furlongs beaten by about 10 lengths

the race before that he finished 6th at 5.5 furlongs beaten by about 7 lengths

he didn't run in any other races

his previous race he earned the comment "tired"


https://www.equibase.com/premium/cha...20&cy=USA&rn=9

https://www.equibase.com/premium/cha...20&cy=USA&rn=2

https://www.equibase.com/premium/cha...20&cy=USA&rn=2

https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Re...istry=T&rbt=TB



*

[jay68802]

Sorry about that, this is what I was looking at. Did not realize they already had today's race in there.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.................


today, Aqueduct race 9, a Maiden Claimer - the #11 horse Another Shot

he was bet down to almost even money from the far outside post in a field of 9

his 2 previous races he finished 4th and 6th - unimpressive speed figs

they were Maiden Specials at Belmont and Saratoga but to me that can't come close to justifying a bet down such as this

my best stab at the reason is this:

there is something in human nature that leads bettors to believe one horse is much better than the others

of course, this doesn't happen all the time - sometimes a fave goes off at 3/1

but still

thanks


*

I think Jay covered it well. MSW down to Mdn Clm, both previous races he was bumped at the break. Happens on this drop down, pretty often. Prev. races don't matter much.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

I think Jay covered it well. MSW down to Mdn Clm, both previous races he was bumped at the break. Happens on this drop down, pretty often. Prev. races don't matter much.

7 other horses in the race had competed in MSW races
some of those also dropped directly into the Maiden Claimer being discussed

if previous races don't matter much why would you have mentioned getting bumped at the break?

Jay also mentioned a previous race

if he had finished dead last 20 lengths back in his last race would that have mattered?



*

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

7 other horses in the race had competed in MSW races
some of those also dropped directly into the Maiden Claimer being discussed

if previous races don't matter much why would you have mentioned getting bumped at the break?

Jay also mentioned a previous race

if he had finished dead last 20 lengths back in his last race would that have mattered?



*

You misunderstood. He didn't mean previous race results didn't matter at all. He meant that the dropdown was more important than how he did in the MSW races. The huge class drop is enough to give the horse a much better chance to win. Whether it's a smart bet at even money is another story, but it is the explanation. Happens all the time in racing.

[Half Smoke]

..............


well, kind of amusing, I found another I thought was way over bet in a Maiden Claimer in the 2nd race at Tampa Bay

the #12 horse Dream of Anfield was bet down - believe it or not - to 3/10 on the far outside post in an 11 horse field

this horse came off another Maiden Claimer at Gulfstream Park West where the purse was higher so I guess you could say he dropped - he finished 5th there about 12 lengths back and earned the comment "faded"

I speculated that he was a bum and doing no handicapping dutched the next 4 horses in the odds and got a $37.20 payout on the #4 for an overall profit of just under 3/1 - the bum was out of the money - he finished last

doesn't prove anything, I know - just kind of had fun with it........
speculating that at the very low Maiden Claiming level it's more than a little bit possible that if a fave is bet way down there's a good chance he's quite a bit less deserving than the odds suggest

in my previous post I said I was through betting racing, so obviously that's not the case - since I found this angle, which is new for me anyway, I'm sure others have tried it

will bet a little until it crashes, if it does, like many angles do

the horses in many Maiden Claimers look so bad its hard to cap them, but it seems easy to say that some of the faves that are bet way down are underserving



*

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

7 other horses in the race had competed in MSW races
some of those also dropped directly into the Maiden Claimer being discussed

if previous races don't matter much why would you have mentioned getting bumped at the break?

Jay also mentioned a previous race

if he had finished dead last 20 lengths back in his last race would that have mattered?



*

Was basing it on Jay's comments that others had already run in Mdnclm and Failed. First time to drop was the key. I didn't have pp's and Jay said the other two had already failed in Mdnclm. I meant a first time drop into Mdn Clm, the public doesn't care about prev races, but since you were looking for answers, maybe the public looked at his last two bumps as a stronger reason to make it even money. See first timers on that drop becoming the favorite more often than not. If all 7 were also first timers, then No, it didn't make sense.

[Nitro]

Half Smoke I can certainly appreciate your curiosity and perhaps even frustration when coming across a situation like this. It’s certainly not an infrequent event when there’s unusually heavy betting on an entry that looks horrible on paper no matter what Class of horses are involved. Many handicappers will scratch their heads before and sometimes even after the race is run.

My typical explanation is that there could be any number of reasons why the Insiders know something much more valuable about the horse’s condition than what’s printed on paper. They might know about some recent (unpublished) workouts. Or better yet, some very positive physicality improvements. These sort of things can lead them to believe that their horse is ready to make a big move. Their intentions are also sometimes very noticeable on the tote board.

Anyone who thinks that some Outsiders are betting heavily based on what they’re seeing on paper are greatly mistaken. If anything, they’re riding the coat tails of the Insider's obvious betting activities. (If they are in fact noticeable)
I had an old friend who used to say that his Dad’s office was always located near the $100 window.

[cj]

This horse didn't look horrible on paper against that field. His speed figures might have looked bad in isolation, but not against this group, especially if you ignored the grass starts some had. He also had trouble at the start of both his races.

In the end, he was beaten by two horses that jumped up and ran better races, nothing new with maidens. A second time starter won, the other was just his fourth start. Even the bet down horse ran a career best, just didn't improve as much as the others.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by cj

This horse didn't look horrible on paper against that field. His speed figures might have looked bad in isolation, but not against this group, especially if you ignored the grass starts some had. He also had trouble at the start of both his races.

In the end, he was beaten by two horses that jumped up and ran better races, nothing new with maidens. A second time starter won, the other was just his fourth start. Even the bet down horse ran a career best, just didn't improve as much as the others.

I may have overstated my case if it seemed like I was implying that the 2 horses I pointed to couldn't be competitive with their respective fields

actually, my point was that they didn't seem to come close to deserving the odds that they were bet down to, that they were pretty easy to find, and that they made juicy targets to bet against.............again, the second horse I mentioned was bet down to 3/10 and I just can't see him being close to being worth that


since my post I have gone thru dozens of charts
and I have changed my opinion about them being easy to find
I didn't find a lot of similar bet downs that I thought were undeserving
so, I would now say, that they can be found - but it doesn't happen that often
that I happened to find 2 so easily was just happenstance - it isn't normally that easy


*