I've changed my strategy...stop the presses..(~:\

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:

1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three

Betting under any other circumstances is just wisiful thinking in my opinion

three good ones



Good ideas Half Smoke.

Onesome's point on unexpected odds behavior adding something to the mix, is on point as well.

Thaskalos is right about the high cost of dutching several.



So you've found an odds -on favorite that you feel is false or vulnerable. The strategy from that point is important

• dutch several?
• make a small 'lean' Win or exotic that has potential to show a long-term profit?
• spread and combine with other such opinions in a multi-race sequence?
• other strategies??

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.....................

so if you guys see a fave at 3/5 and you think he should be no better than 3/1
but you don't see any particularly great bet among the others then -

you would pass the race?

correct?

*

I find that to get an edge I can feel confident about I need two opinions inside the same. By that I mean I have a good reason to think one of the favorites is overbet and a good reason to think some other horse is better than he looks. If I hate the favorite but don't have much of value oriented opinion on someone else, I might still get involved in some exactas using contenders, but I'd have to really hate the favorite a lot.

I'll explain why.

Let's say the favorite has 35% of the pool and I think he's overbet. That doesn't mean he can't win. Maybe he has a 20% chance of winning. Betting against him it's going to overcome the entire take and generate a profit. It's getting me into the ballpark. Maybe with a generous rebate you can get involved, but otherwise you need some other positive value oriented insight.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I find that to get an edge I can feel confident about I need two opinions inside the same. By that I mean I have a good reason to think one of the favorites is overbet and a good reason to think some other horse is better than he looks. If I hate the favorite but don't have much of value oriented opinion on someone else, I might still get involved in some exactas using contenders, but I'd have to really hate the favorite a lot.

I'll explain why.

Let's say the favorite has 35% of the pool and I think he's overbet. That doesn't mean he can't win. Maybe he has a 20% chance of winning. Betting against him it's going to overcome the entire take and generate a profit. It's getting me into the ballpark. Maybe with a generous rebate you can get involved, but otherwise you need some other positive value oriented insight.

want an underlay, and an overlay...

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Let's say the favorite has 35% of the pool and I think he's overbet.

as I very clearly stated I am focused on betting only against odds on favorites



odds on favorites have 50% or more of the win pool




*

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

..........................


yes, I posted a few weeks ago that I was quitting betting racing but that hasn't happened................surprise surprise surprise

except for very big races where I like betting on a very strong horse................I've changed my strategy

I will no longer pick one horse that I like.................
instead I will bet against the fave
when I see a fave that's odds on - 3/5 or 4/5 that is way undeserving IMHO

to do that I will have to predict that late money will take him down that low - or close to that low - he probably won't be that low when I bet him - predicting this is often not very hard to do

I will dutch 3 or 4 horses against the fave picking those that I think have the best chance to beat him



comments?



*

I'll save you a lot of money. Put your bet into a "cookie jar". If you win your bet credit your "account" if you lose leave the bet in the cookie jar. After a "large" number of races adjust your accounts. You will have money in the cookie jar. Consider your self a winner.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

as I very clearly stated I am focused on betting only against odds on favorites



odds on favorites have 50% or more of the win pool




*

Same principle.

Even when you dislike an odds on favorite, they are still going to win a decent percentage of the time. They are almost never so bad or you so right about the situation that those horses are always going to lose.

IMO (assuming you've identified a bad odds on favorite), those horses will just win less often than the odds suggest and lose way more than the track take. That's usually enough to get you in the ballpark for profit. But to give yourself a real margin of safety it helps if you have some positive value oriented opinion on 1 or 2 of the other contenders.

My typical bet would look something like this.

The odds on favorite is coming off a gold rail that not many people noticed and was loose in a soft pace the time before that. He's good, but no way is he even money in this spot.

An 8-1 shot raced OK while outside on that same day and his previous effort was clearly good enough to win if I'm right about the favorite and that bias. A 15-1 shot got subtly squeezed at the start last out that didn't draw a chart comment, his previous race was against the race flow, and his races before that are good enough to be in the mix.

I would bet both the 8-1 and 15-1 shots to win and box them in the exacta weighted a little heavier towards whoever I thought was the bigger overlay.

But you should do whatever works for you.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

as I very clearly stated I am focused on betting only against odds on favorites



odds on favorites have 50% or more of the win pool




*

100,000 pool.

18% takeout.

82,000 left.

Any horse with 41,000 bet on it or above will be even money or lower. A horse could pay 3.20 with less than 50% of the pool on it.

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Same principle.

Even when you dislike an odds on favorite, they are still going to win a decent percentage of the time. They are almost never so bad or you so right about the situation that those horses are always going to lose.

IMO (assuming you've identified a bad odds on favorite), those horses will just win less often than the odds suggest and lose way more than the track take. That's usually enough to get you in the ballpark for profit. But to give yourself a real margin of safety it helps if you have some positive value oriented opinion on 1 or 2 of the other contenders.

My typical bet would look something like this.

The odds on favorite is coming off a gold rail that not many people noticed and was loose in a soft pace the time before that. He's good, but no way is he even money in this spot.

An 8-1 shot raced OK while outside on that same day and his previous effort was clearly good enough to win if I'm right about the favorite and that bias. A 15-1 shot got subtly squeezed at the start last out that didn't draw a chart comment, his previous race was against the race flow, and his races before that are good enough to be in the mix.

I would bet both the 8-1 and 15-1 shots to win and box them in the exacta weighted a little heavier towards whoever I thought was the bigger overlay.

But you should do whatever works for you.

So much work for a bet in a single race and you know life is unpredictable and all your hard work could go out the window because the jockey falls off at the start.

In other words I have issues with the scalability of this type of analysis. This although probably does result in a better ROI over the long run but you'll never get to it. And you might not even have +EV insights in that longrun, this type of info could already be priced in.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Onesome

So much work for a bet in a single race and you know life is unpredictable and all your hard work could go out the window because the jockey falls off at the start.

In other words I have issues with the scalability of this type of analysis. This although probably does result in a better ROI over the long run but you'll never get to it. And you might not even have +EV insights in that longrun, this type of info could already be priced in.

to me, this is part of the fun in betting.

You've got the stars and the characters on the track, you've got the action (both on the track and with the gambling), and then there's this world of betting strategy, and probability, and even investing.

It can be a lot of work, and TBH, racing doesn't often give a ton of opportunities.

Even if you are lucky enough to discover an angle or an edge, the vast majority of the wagering opportunities are going to be an efficient market.

There's an opportunity for all, to 'dabble' in the more scientific gambling levels of the game, if they so choose. Responsible play, and patience are a must.

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I'll save you a lot of money. Put your bet into a "cookie jar". If you win your bet credit your "account" if you lose leave the bet in the cookie jar. After a "large" number of races adjust your accounts. You will have money in the cookie jar. Consider your self a winner.

[Half Smoke]

......................


some have suggested this is a doomed strategy

I never claimed it was a sure winner - I just put it out there as something I'm going to try

if something interests me and I don't try it - I'm going to have regrets

if it fails, I will try something else that's new for me that many here will no doubt consider to be idiotic

btw - it scored on my first 3 tries - I'm 3-0 - I'm making very few bets - not trying to say that suggests it's a long run winner - just saying - I'm not that naive


as the Great Gretzky said:


you miss 100% of the shots you don't take




Good Luck to All



*

[Half Smoke]

......................


one last point about the effect of breakage when you bet on odds on favorites

if without breakage the payout would be $3.38 at most tracks the actually payout will be $3.20

breakage will demolish 15% of the profit in this example




if you bet on a horse that would have paid $12.18 without breakage it will payout $12.00 after breakage at most tracks

in this example breakage only destroyed 1.8% of the profit



*

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

......................


one last point about the effect of breakage when you bet on odds on favorites

if without breakage the payout would be $3.38 at most tracks the actually payout will be $3.20

breakage will demolish 15% of the profit in this example




if you bet on a horse that would have paid $12.18 without breakage it will payout $12.00 after breakage at most tracks

in this example breakage only destroyed 1.8% of the profit



*

It's a good point and kills much of the appeal of place and show wagering.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

......................


some have suggested this is a doomed strategy

I never claimed it was a sure winner - I just put it out there as something I'm going to try

if something interests me and I don't try it - I'm going to have regrets

if it fails, I will try something else that's new for me that many here will no doubt consider to be idiotic

btw - it scored on my first 3 tries - I'm 3-0 - I'm making very few bets - not trying to say that suggests it's a long run winner - just saying - I'm not that naive


as the Great Gretzky said:


you miss 100% of the shots you don't take




Good Luck to All



*

It's not a "doomed strategy" if you're incredible good at it. Gee, if you beat every bad favorite, will you make money? Yes, of course you will. It's just your post like it's something brilliant or unique is funny.

And everyone knows Michael Scott said that, not Gretzky.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Onesome

So much work for a bet in a single race and you know life is unpredictable and all your hard work could go out the window because the jockey falls off at the start.

In other words I have issues with the scalability of this type of analysis. This although probably does result in a better ROI over the long run but you'll never get to it. And you might not even have +EV insights in that longrun, this type of info could already be priced in.

Al I can tell you is that if I simply looked at a set of high quality figures and tried to out handicap everyone else using the same or similar figures I'm pretty sure I'd lose despite my decades of experience.

IMO, the value is in information not publicly available or especially that's being misunderstood by other serious players.

What I do is scalable in some ways and not in others.

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Al I can tell you is that if I simply looked at a set of high quality figures and tried to out handicap everyone else using the same or similar figures I'm pretty sure I'd lose despite my decades of experience.

IMO, the value is in information not publicly available or especially that's being misunderstood by other serious players.

What I do is scalable in some ways and not in others.

I think we are have the same theology but have a different approach. I think your example is trying to find the missing information, my approach is to sit back and let others, like you, tell me what the missing information is via the public markets. So where your approach will be limited to watching the races at NYRA tracks, I can use my approach from Belmont to Longchamp to Sha Tin to Flemmington.