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Old 11-12-2018, 05:31 PM   #241
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Code:
	"Del Mar
Race 
3

Post 
4:30

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$70,401"			SEE BOX TO RIGHT FOR PLAY ANALYSIS.  EXACTA BET SIZES FOR THE PLAYS ARE WITHIN THE MATRIX, WIN BET IS THE PGNO LINE TOTAL																
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL			
1	 	47	6	5	8	20	25	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	130.93	pgno	bet size	
2	59	 	16	16	24	61	74	61	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	310.87	2	"LAY THIS HORSE"	
3	5	12	 	1	2	5	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	36.52	7	ALL/PGNO EXACTA	
4	5	11	1	 	2	5	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	35.19	6	WIN AND ALL/PGNO EXACTA 	
5	7	17	2	2	 	7	9	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	52.43			
6	21	49	6	6	8	 	26	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	135.49			
7	26	61	7	7	10	26	 	26	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	163.47			
8	20	49	6	5	8	21	26	 	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	135.09			
9	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00			
10	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00			
11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	0.00			
12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	0.00			
13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	0.00			
14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	0.00			
15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	0.00			
16	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	0.00			
 	142.60	245.19	43.89	42.35	62.10	146.75	170.73	146.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1000.00
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:20 AM   #242
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Code:
	"UK Lingfield
Race 
4

Post 
9:19

MTP 
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,262"			SEE BOX TO RIGHT FOR PLAY ANALYSIS.  EXACTA BET SIZES FOR THE PLAYS ARE WITHIN THE MATRIX, WIN BET IS THE PGNO LINE TOTAL																
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL			
1	 	16	40	29	34	18	0	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	145.72	pgno	bet size	
2	15	 	24	17	20	11	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	91.58	3	"LAY THIS HORSE"	
3	44	28	 	53	61	33	0	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	233.62	5	ALL/PGNO EXACTA	
4	30	19	49	 	41	23	0	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	172.79	4	WIN AND ALL/PGNO EXACTA 	
5	36	23	58	43	 	27	0	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	198.53			
6	18	11	28	21	24	 	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	108.29			
7	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00			
8	8	5	12	9	10	6	0	 	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	49.47			
9	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00			
10	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00			
11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	0.00			
12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	0.00			
13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	0.00			
14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	0.00			
15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	0.00			
16	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	0.00			
 	150.93	101.24	210.60	172.35	190.31	117.48	0.00	57.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1000.00
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:47 AM   #243
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uk Lingfield race 4 11-13-2018


that worked out well
betfair largest lay pool would require a $1 win return of $2.81
the horse went off at $2.20.
I estimate I would collect on a lay bet 80% on the time, my advantage, without adjusting for the various final odds would be 1.25 time the final odds.
2.20x 1.25 = $2.75m my maximum payout to break even

I need to add 1 additional column to the matrix information, that would be, how much to bet on all the horses other than the top pick

in this case the #1 horse won. my return would be $1.35, exceeding my required minimum return


the 1/5 exacta won, paying $27.60 on the dollar, my return would be $3.66.

not certain what my min $1 return for this play is just yet. have not reviewed but 22 races, 11 of which won.. that seems like too high a success rate.
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Last edited by formula_2002; 11-13-2018 at 10:50 AM.
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Old 11-13-2018, 04:23 PM   #244
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Code:
		"Zia Park
Race 
4

Post 
3:22

MTP 
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,918"			SEE BOX TO RIGHT FOR PLAY ANALYSIS.  EXACTA BET SIZES FOR THE PLAYS ARE WITHIN THE MATRIX, WIN BET IS THE PGNO LINE TOTAL															
c37		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL		
0.118	1	 	23	23	7	19	47	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	117.77	pgno	bet size
0.170	2	24	 	35	11	29	72	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	170.33	6	"LAY THIS HORSE"
0.169	3	24	35	 	11	28	71	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	168.64	2	ALL/PGNO EXACTA
0.053	4	7	9	9	 	8	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	52.55	3	WIN AND ALL/PGNO EXACTA 
0.139	5	19	27	27	8	 	57	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	138.88		
0.352	6	64	92	92	29	75	 	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	351.84		
0.000	7	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	8	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	9	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	10	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	0.00		
0.000	15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	0.00		
0.000	16	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	0.00		
1.00	 	137.52	186.66	185.22	65.47	158.31	266.82	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1000.00
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Old 11-13-2018, 07:57 PM   #245
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Code:
		"Dover Downs
Race 
8

Post 
6:54

MTP 
0

$2 Exacta Pool
$655"			SEE BOX TO RIGHT FOR PLAY ANALYSIS.  EXACTA BET SIZES FOR THE PLAYS ARE WITHIN THE MATRIX, WIN BET IS THE PGNO LINE TOTAL															
c37		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL		
0.035	1	 	7	12	7	7	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	34.83	pgno	bet size
0.190	2	8	 	76	44	47	6	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	189.77	3	"LAY THIS HORSE"
0.326	3	17	92	 	91	97	13	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	326.23	5	ALL/PGNO EXACTA
0.187	4	8	44	75	 	46	6	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	186.92	2	WIN AND ALL/PGNO EXACTA 
0.200	5	9	48	82	47	 	7	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	200.43		
0.026	6	1	5	9	5	5	 	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	26.30		
0.036	7	1	7	12	7	7	1	 	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	35.54		
0.000	8	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	9	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	10	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	0.00		
0.000	15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	0.00		
0.000	16	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	0.00		
1.00	 	43.98	202.04	265.78	199.82	210.09	33.45	44.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1000.00
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Old 11-14-2018, 06:01 PM   #246
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Code:
		"Churchill Downs
Race 
9

Post 
5:00

MTP 
1

$2 Exacta Pool
$43,809"			SEE BOX TO RIGHT FOR PLAY ANALYSIS.  EXACTA BET SIZES FOR THE PLAYS ARE WITHIN THE MATRIX, WIN BET IS THE PGNO LINE TOTAL															
c37		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL		
0.000	1	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00	pgno	bet size
0.000	2	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00	3	LAY THIS HORSE
0.279	3	0	0	 	0	32	104	8	50	21	64	0	0	0	0	0	0	278.66	6	pgno/all
0.000	4	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0.00	10	bet pgno to win
0.083	5	0	0	25	0	 	24	2	12	5	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	82.86		
0.269	6	0	0	102	0	30	 	8	47	20	61	0	0	0	0	0	0	268.62		
0.022	7	0	0	6	0	2	6	 	3	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	21.56		
0.129	8	0	0	41	0	12	40	3	 	8	25	0	0	0	0	0	0	129.29		
0.053	9	0	0	16	0	5	15	1	7	 	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	53.44		
0.166	10	0	0	55	0	16	53	4	26	11	 	0	0	0	0	0	0	165.57		
0.000	11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	----	0.00		
0.000	14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	----	0.00		
0.000	15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	----	0.00		
0.000	16	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	 	0.00		
1.00	 	0.00	0.00	246.07	0.00	97.69	242.31	26.89	144.92	64.81	177.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1000.00
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Old 11-14-2018, 06:13 PM   #247
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IN THE ABOVE RACE THE $1, 5/9 EXACTA RETURNED $146.80
THE LAY HORSE DID NOT WIN.
DELETEING THE LAY HORSE FROM TEH EXACTA MATRIX, A TOTAL BET OF $475 RETURNED $708
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Old 11-14-2018, 07:49 PM   #248
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WOTB R1, LAY #7

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Old 11-14-2018, 07:54 PM   #249
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DD R2 LAY 6

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Old 11-14-2018, 09:17 PM   #250
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dd r5 lay 5

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Old 11-14-2018, 09:36 PM   #251
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lay 4

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Old 11-14-2018, 09:44 PM   #252
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lay 1

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Old Yesterday, 10:46 AM   #253
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lay 10

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Old Yesterday, 11:52 AM   #254
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lay 7

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