it's impossible to predict the belmont if justy doesn't fire

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

How many from the last 20 Peter Pans made you think they had a chance to win besides Tonalist? Blended Citizen gives me that same sort of feel. And I’m sorry, (not directed at you Lemon) but that workout was freakin awesome lol.

I believe Blended Citizen is the only horse with the Raise A Native-Northern Dancer sire/dam sire nick. Prior to the Tapit invasion this was a solid winning Belmont angle. Not sold on Kyle Frey as a Belmont Stakes winning rider but can't knock him too hard after a solid ride in Peter Pan. Only hard knock I have on the horse is his final 3/8th fractions are about 0.4 seconds too slow. About the same as Good Magic and Good Magic wasn't fast enough the previous two races. The horse does seemingly run the same splits every quarter and that's a net positive here. I don't see him at the same level as Tonalist. He beat Core Beliefs in the Peter Pan who was 10 lengths behind Justify in the Santa Anita. He was five lengths behind Good Magic in the Bluegrass. I certainly won't dismiss but I'm having a hard time staying on the fence with him. My checklist from top down: Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Tenfold, and Bravazo. Not sure how I will play those yet.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Took him 5 races to break his Maiden, including a 3rd in a maiden claiming.

Creator took 6 races to break his maiden.

Originally Posted by Redboard

5th place in the Blue Grass?

Creator ran 13th in the KY Derby.


Horses who win the BEL Stakes just aren't necessarily horses who win 1-1/16th and 1-1/8 prep races. It's why horses like Exaggerator finish 11th but take a lot of $$. Many people did not have Creator, just like they didn't have Tonalist and Commissioner, or Palace Malice or Drosselmeyer, etc. .

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Creator took 6 races to break his maiden.



Creator ran 13th in the KY Derby.


Horses who win the BEL Stakes just aren't necessarily horses who win 1-1/16th and 1-1/8 prep races. It's why horses like Exaggerator finish 11th but take a lot of $$. Many people did not have Creator, just like they didn't have Tonalist and Commissioner, or Palace Malice or Drosselmeyer, etc. .

Well that’s true but going by that logic we may as well pick our horse out of a hat or just bet on price. None of those you mentioned (except Tonalist) took the Peter Pan route. Every year the Peter Pan winner gets over bet and will again will be an underlay. They always look so interesting with a win at the track. Even the horses you mentioned(except for Tonalist) all competed against the big boys in G1 or G2 races to earn some points to try to get into the derby.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Well that’s true but going by that logic we may as well pick our horse out of a hat or just bet on price. None of those you mentioned (except Tonalist) took the Peter Pan route. Every year the Peter Pan winner gets over bet and will again will be an underlay. They always look so interesting with a win at the track. Even the horses you mentioned(except for Tonalist) all competed against the big boys in G1 or G2 races to earn some points to try to get into the derby.

Drosselmeyer can be counted as a "Peter Pan" horse, too. In 2010, the Peter Pan was not run and NYRA ran the Dwyer in early May in its place.

In the past 30 years, AP Indy, Colonial Affair, Citadeed, Lemon Drop Kid, Unshaded, Sunday Break, Sunriver, Drosselmeyer, Fly Down, Tonalist, and Commissioner all won or placed in the Belmont Stakes with a prior start in the Peter Pan (or the Dwyer in 2010).

Not surprisingly not the strongest source of winners (after all, the other legs of the Triple Crown ideally would produce Belmont winners) , but seeing how its basically the last spot where second tier colts, comebackers and late bloomers can get into the Triple Crown mix its had its share of success.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Well that’s true but going by that logic we may as well pick our horse out of a hat or just bet on price. None of those you mentioned (except Tonalist) took the Peter Pan route. Every year the Peter Pan winner gets over bet and will again will be an underlay. They always look so interesting with a win at the track. Even the horses you mentioned(except for Tonalist) all competed against the big boys in G1 or G2 races to earn some points to try to get into the derby.

If Justify does not win to me its akin to picking a horse out of a hat.

None of these horses have shown real ability speed figure wise, so your statement to me makes a lot of sense.

Justifys worst figure is better than any horse in the race, routing wise.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

None of these horses have shown real ability speed figure wise, so your statement to me makes a lot of sense.

So not utilizing speed figures as a top Belmont Stakes handicapping method is akin to picking a horse out of a hat?

7 of the last 15 Belmont Stakes winners earned a declining Speed rating in the previous start. James Scully has a good article on this at twinspires.

Birdstone's highest BRIS speed was a 97 (in an allowance race).
Summer Bird's highest BRIS speed was a 98
Drosselmeyer's highest BRIS speed was a 96
Ruler on Ice 93
Palace Malice 97
Creator 100
Tapwrit 101 (but mostly ran high 80's)


But if you really think this then just take the horses who have highest speed figs Blended Citizen, Justify, Hofburg, Vino Rosso, and Noble Indy on top of a ticket w/all, and call it a day.

If you wanted to use Scully's declining figs angle put Justify, Hofburg, Free Drop, Noble Indy, Restoring Hope, and Vino Rosso on top and call it a day.

Or, just combine the angles using Justify, Hofburg, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy on top of an exacta w/ALL.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Or, just combine the angles using Justify, Hofburg, Vino Rosso and Noble Indy on top of an exacta w/ALL.

For an exacta it could be a decent play to put Justify on top with longer odds horses under and have a seperate ticket with Justify in place with all on top. Then price accordingly.

If I'm using other faves in place under Justify I'm making tri and supers. A tri with Justify third or supers with 3 and 4 singled wouldn't be a bad play either.

I doubt he's going to have a First or finish 5th or less run but the potential pay off makes small bets worth trying. There's no reason to leave Justify out except pure gambling or having a really strong opinion that this Belmont Stakes will go with the common trend and not the exceptional.

It's tough because the bet against is so tempting but all horses mostly equal.

I think Free Drop Billy suits the bill well for an upset or just a good run and good odds. His KD run is definitely a toss. I can't fault him for not liking the slop and having Robby Albarado on his back. So long as both don't happen in the Bel I'll bet him.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

If Justify does not win to me its akin to picking a horse out of a hat.

None of these horses have shown real ability speed figure wise, so your statement to me makes a lot of sense.

Justifys worst figure is better than any horse in the race, routing wise.

Overall figures, sure. Best overall figure, sure. Every American horse in the gate sans Restoring Hope has at one time or more displayed higher Brisnet LP figures than Justify posted his last two outings. Many have previously been within a point or exceeded Justify's most recent final BSF or Brisnet figure. I think the favorite is quite vulnerable here but, yes, playing against still requires selecting the winner. No hat required. Performance + pedigree (potential) and hopefully collect.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Overall figures, sure. Best overall figure, sure. Every American horse in the gate sans Restoring Hope has at one time or more displayed higher Brisnet LP figures than Justify posted his last two outings. Many have previously been within a point or exceeded Justify's most recent final BSF or Brisnet figure. I think the favorite is quite vulnerable here but, yes, playing against still requires selecting the winner. No hat required. Performance + pedigree (potential) and hopefully collect.

I predict, should Justify lose, that winner will not win more than 1 more graded stakes race in his career and will be another of a long line of mediocre horses to win this race.

He will join the ranks of Sarava, DaTara, Commendable, and now Taprit.

[GMB@BP]

You know, I want to make one exception, Hofburg may have some talent, his the only one in here I could see still being a better than avg race horse.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

You know, I want to make one exception, Hofburg may have some talent, his the only one in here I could see still being a better than avg race horse.

You would have to throw Vino Rosso into this category also.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by jay68802

You would have to throw Vino Rosso into this category also.

based on what?

The fall apart grade 2 wood memorial where he was all out to beat Enticed who set a real pace?

Or his Tampa races?

[jay68802]

Based on the Wood, the front end of the race did fall apart, but he took the high pace and was doing the running at the end. Sort of like Hoffburgs Fla Derby, fell apart up front and the only reason he lost was Audible ran a better race.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

based on what?

The fall apart grade 2 wood memorial where he was all out to beat Enticed who set a real pace?

Or his Tampa races?

Originally Posted by jay68802

Based on the Wood, the front end of the race did fall apart, but he took the high pace and was doing the running at the end. Sort of like Hoffburgs Fla Derby, fell apart up front and the only reason he lost was Audible ran a better race.

You guys just gave excellent reasons why neither horse would be a win candidate for me.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I predict, should Justify lose, that winner will not win more than 1 more graded stakes race in his career and will be another of a long line of mediocre horses to win this race.

Really?

So--- because the U.S. breeding practices are deficient in breeding for stamina, and the U.S. racing program is seriously lacking in races over 1-1/4 miles, let alone 1-1/2 miles

....its the HORSES who run long classic routes who are *mediocre*??

I guess I'm just a big fan of classic distance horses.


I'm not going to go thru the list, but Palace Malice, Tonalist, and others have done quite well after the Belmont.