Justify’s Form Cycling Downward

[RunForTheRoses]

Originally Posted by Tom

Thorograph figs - 0 - 2 - 1 - 1 -?

Anyone know what he got for the Preakness?
That board atTG is far too pathetic to read anything .

The numbers are up at their website, he got a zero as did Tenfold and Bravazzo. Could be the 0 2 x pattern although with the offtrack it may be premature to think that. Bravazzo may be due for a clinker as well as he now ran zero twice on a row after running much worse figs.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

Even Wayne Lukas is keying Justify in his exotics. And so far he has the only horse in the race who could beat him. I'm inclined to bet that Tenfold and Hofburg are hangers next to a horse like Justify. Bravazo was willing to pass. That's the only thing I'm leaning toward certain of with the Belmont contenders.

I somewhat liking Blended Citizen a tad better than Bravazo, but will have to watch a few more replay races.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

Even Wayne Lukas is keying Justify in his exotics. And so far he has the only horse in the race who could beat him. I'm inclined to bet that Tenfold and Hofburg are hangers next to a horse like Justify. Bravazo was willing to pass. That's the only thing I'm leaning toward certain of with the Belmont contenders.

Tired Justify aside, where's the horse that's going to both conserve their energy enough to pass him, while keeping up enough lengths to beat him, and actually be willing to pass him?

Could be, but Smarty Jones was as talented as any of these, and Birdstone was ok moving ahead, not shabby 5-1 winner of the Travers, 7th in BC Classic.

There's more to suggest the last race has hangers than Hofburg, yeah I know he's the wise guy horse but he's exceptionally well bred, especially for the Belmont Stakes and didn't have a bad race in the Derby, which is more random than anything. If he had run and sputtered in the Preakness, I'd agree, but now as a lightly raced (remember Bernardini in the Preakness? another AP indy) colt he has far more upside than most are giving him credit for. Again, he is lacking on experience but so are most. And he hasn't run twice in the previous 5 weeks.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by GaryG

He had a suspension to serve, two days this week I think.

because there are no other exercise riders who can work a horse except his jockey, Mike Smith?

Originally Posted by clicknow

I somewhat liking Blended Citizen a tad better than Bravazo, but will have to watch a few more replay races.

Just to repeat myself.....this one is a live wire. If you are a fan of working toward a 1-1/2 mile race, and how it should be done, then you have already noticed at this point. This horse is in my exacta and trifectas and I can say that in advance with some confidence.

MEANWHILE: Vino is working 4Fs to prepare for 1-1/2 mile race, and Justify is staying in the barn eating or napping or whatever he does all day.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Aner

It is hard to detect declining form.

It really depends on your what your system for judging that is. Based on what I see many players betting, it seems like the achilles heel is detecting INCREASING form.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by clicknow

It really depends on your what your system for judging that is. Based on what I see many players betting, it seems like the achilles heel is detecting INCREASING form.

A type of first impression bias, maybe.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

A type of first impression bias, maybe.

Well, I'm arguing the "Bravazo is an improving horse" over in another topic right now. I am not really sure the reasons for thinking that are at all sound. Not sure, but I'm just not seeing an improving horse, I'm seeing a horse who improves on Slop (like Exaggerator).

I DO like it when people tell me I'm wrong, since that is the only way I can see the other side of the coin .

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Well, I'm arguing the "Bravazo is an improving horse" over in another topic right now. I am not really sure the reasons for thinking that are at all sound. Not sure, but I'm just not seeing an improving horse, I'm seeing a horse who improves on Slop (like Exaggerator).

I DO like it when people tell me I'm wrong, since that is the only way I can see the other side of the coin .

Bravazo is a good example of first impression bias. His bad races were tosses. But how can we look for a promising long odds horse without such incertainties? I think that's why Quip ended up being a kind of false favourite, he didn't have enough question marks on his resume, made him seem safer. But the opposite is true, according to my instincts. Just have to find when inconsistencies are better than unknowns, which is a coin toss in most cases.

I bet on Bravazo being an improving horse and will do it again. I don't think that he will fail in the Belmont. Other horses may best him but he will run as well or better than in the Derby or Preakness. He's training well right now, probably working on his turn of foot. He's going to be primed to have some explosivity down the stretch. I guess that's the obvious strategy but I think from his Preakness run he's shown he can do it. Tenfold too, but Tenfold kind of hung, I don't think from tiring but from herd instinct. Still, that's not the hardest obstacle to overcome.

It's just an odd statistical unlikelihood that there will be Justify-Bravazo-Tenfold repeat. Can't figure that out.

But I'm taking your advice on Blended Citizen, he's in. I actually like the horses that aren't fresh. Two or three weeks off a race is fine. Seeing as the Belmont is almost a marathon. I don't know anything about training horses but I don't think that conditioning for that long a run means more rest is better.

I like this interview with Lukas where he talks about advice he gave to Baffert on a horse. I mean if that old school mentality those guys have works it works. "Run that horse back in two weeks"

YouTube (Short URL)

[jocko699]

[QUOTE=clicknow;2322174]because there are no other exercise riders who can work a horse except his jockey, Mike Smith?



Just to repeat myself.....this one is a live wire. If you are a fan of working toward a 1-1/2 mile race, and how it should be done, then you have already noticed at this point. This horse is in my exacta and trifectas and I can say that in advance with some confidence.

MEANWHILE: Vino is working 4Fs to prepare for 1-1/2 mile race, and Justify is staying in the barn eating or napping or whatever he does all day.[/QUOTE]

I am sure he is just sitting there reading all your posts

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

https://youtu.be/jBBmb0JXgnU?t=57s

This is a really good interview.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by clicknow

MEANWHILE: Vino is working 4Fs to prepare for 1-1/2 mile race, and Justify is staying in the barn eating or napping or whatever he does all day.

Justify has been galloping around Churchill around 1 1/8 to 1 3/8 miles every morning since at least Thursday. I was even there one morning to watch it happen.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by jocko699

I am sure he is just sitting there reading all your posts

Obviously you didn't get my drift about how horses are working out. Everyone knows that tenfold, bravazo and justify are all galloping 1-1/2 miles a day.

I was just impressed with how trainer is working Blended Citizen in comparison. I like interval type training and horse is working lights out.


As for interviews, too bad they didn't interview Dermot Weld.


I just saw Lukas at Oaklawn at Dawn or whatever they call it. I guess it's on you tube by now. He spun some interesting tales....Lukas is quite the entertainer/talker. Always enjoy his *spiels*. gave his autograph. I usually don't do that sort of thing, but heck, I was "right there" so I figured why not.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Justify has been galloping around Churchill around 1 1/8 to 1 3/8 miles every morning since at least Thursday. I was even there one morning to watch it happen.

I was being sarcastic i.e. that bob is "taking it easy on him"..... I was comparing galloping to Blended's interval works, which look pretty awesome.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by clicknow

If you are a fan of working toward a 1-1/2 mile race, and how it should be done, then you have already noticed at this point.

MEANWHILE: Vino is working 4Fs to prepare for 1-1/2 mile race, and Justify is staying in the barn eating or napping or whatever he does all day.

Not sure why Blended Citizen, whose last start was May 12, and Vino Rosso, whose last start was May 5, would get "points" for breezing this week over the 3 principals from the Preakness.

It has barely been a week since the Preakness, so why would anyone expect those horses to have a recorded breeze? It took Blended Citizen 2 weeks to return to the worktab after his last race and Vino Rosso took 3 weeks.

It's dubious their 4 furlong moves somehow makes them more prepared for the Belmont than horses that just ran 9.5 furlongs a few days earlier.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Not sure why Blended Citizen, whose last start was May 12, and Vino Rosso, whose last start was May 5, would get "points" for breezing this week

Obviously, you have not looked at Blended Citizen's works as of late. You only looked at his last "breezing". He has been doing what is basically interval training, since the end of April, with a race in between. And doing it lights out.


His gallops are looking pretty good, too, at least to my eye, he appears to like BEL track, gobbling up ground----leg action is a bit high, and dunno how a 1 turn at 9F would translate to Bel Stakes, but I just think he looks pretty good

.

YouTube