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Old 05-22-2018, 07:41 AM   #31
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I don't think they have the Rags number number yet, but it's being predicted to be a 7, which backs up the 98 Beyer.
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Old 05-22-2018, 10:56 AM   #32
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There's no benefit to retiring a horse in good order in mid June given breeding season is 8 months away. Out of sight, out of mind for that length of time is even a detriment. The only reason he'd retire is if he's injured or does so poorly in training or racing that they risk demolishing his reputation. Good losses won't hurt him, just running up the track.
I agree. And if they did retire him after a Belmont win, he'd only have six races on his resume, albeit all wins, but sturdiness and longevity counts as much as racing record.
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Old 05-22-2018, 11:26 AM   #33
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I agree. And if they did retire him after a Belmont win, he'd only have six races on his resume, albeit all wins, but sturdiness and longevity counts as much as racing record.
confirmation problems. Yuck. he pass all that to his offspring.

better to breed to a correct scat daddy like No Nay Never (leading 2 year old sire) or Caravaggio.

If Coolmore took a pass, that says A LOT. (they never met a scat daddy they did not like.)

Allan
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Old 05-22-2018, 11:39 AM   #34
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McKinzie is just tack walking now according to Baffert via Steve Byk show this am. Haven't heard about Nero. Also said that Ax Man is not being pointed to the Easy Goer on Belmont day. Be curious where and when he shows up.
I thought I read that he was tack walking a week or so ago and was scheduled to start doing more. I figured he'd be at the galloping stage by now.
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Old 05-22-2018, 11:12 PM   #35
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Using the 97 Beyer assigned the race, it falls exactly in line with all the other routes that day, the way I use the Beyer variant to create a Quirin Pac/Speed number. The race gets a Quirin 122-110.
The performance fig for that would be (122+110)/2 = 116 Quirin.
If I substitute a 107 Beyr for the 97, it would come out to be a 107 Beyer, or a 127 TF. The Special fall right in line as well.
The pace is the difference. I convert everything to the Quirin scale because I have been using them since the late 70s and understand them.

So, IMHO, for a speed figure, the 97 is correct. As a performance number, the 116 is real life. And that lines up nicely with TF figs.
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Old 05-23-2018, 07:29 AM   #36
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Looks like Preakness Beyers are experiencing shrinkage just like Derby Beyers.
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Old 05-23-2018, 09:53 AM   #37
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Looks like Preakness Beyers are experiencing shrinkage just like Derby Beyers.
It's kind of odd that the Grade 1 figures seemed to be shrinking for quite awhile, but in the last few years we've had a flurry of big figures again.

Arrogate 122, 120, 119
American Pharaoh 120
Frosted 123
California Chrome 119
Gun Runner 120
Send It In 119

However, the Triple Crown figures remain lower than the long term Pars even though in some cases it seemed like some of the horses and crops were very good on other criteria.
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Old 05-23-2018, 10:30 AM   #38
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I thought I read that he was tack walking a week or so ago and was scheduled to start doing more. I figured he'd be at the galloping stage by now.
This was from Baffert on the Byk show Monday. It's not uncommon to walk under tack for a couple of weeks.
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Old 05-23-2018, 11:29 AM   #39
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It's kind of odd that the Grade 1 figures seemed to be shrinking for quite awhile, but in the last few years we've had a flurry of big figures again.

Arrogate 122, 120, 119
American Pharaoh 120
Frosted 123
California Chrome 119
Gun Runner 120
Send It In 119

However, the Triple Crown figures remain lower than the long term Pars even though in some cases it seemed like some of the horses and crops were very good on other criteria.
Well, horses are so much more lightly raced now going into the TC.

(Which is evidence for the fact that light racing schedules are not the product of what is best for the horse's form, but rather of breeders' imperatives.)
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Old 05-23-2018, 11:58 AM   #40
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Old 05-23-2018, 12:21 PM   #41
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Well, horses are so much more lightly raced now going into the TC.
If it's a disadvantage in terms of "figures" to be so lightly raced and inexperienced going into the Derby then why aren't trainers giving their horses more experience at 2 like they used to and then bringing them into the Derby off only a couple of preps to keep them fresh for the Triple Crown?

Maybe something 5-6 races at 2 and then 2-3 preps at 3 would be ideal?????
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Old 05-23-2018, 12:33 PM   #42
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If it's a disadvantage in terms of "figures" to be so lightly raced and inexperienced going into the Derby then why aren't trainers giving their horses more experience at 2 like they used to and then bringing them into the Derby off only a couple of preps to keep them fresh for the Triple Crown?

Maybe something 5-6 races at 2 and then 2-3 preps at 3 would be ideal?????
There were plenty of horses in the KY Derby who had "bottom", i.e. trainers worked and raced some pretty decent furlongs into them at age 2.

My Boy Jack, Bravazo, Lone Sailor, Firenze Fire, Combatant. Solomini, Bolt d'Oro to name some specifically.

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Old 05-23-2018, 02:25 PM   #43
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If it's a disadvantage in terms of "figures" to be so lightly raced and inexperienced going into the Derby then why aren't trainers giving their horses more experience at 2 like they used to and then bringing them into the Derby off only a couple of preps to keep them fresh for the Triple Crown?

Maybe something 5-6 races at 2 and then 2-3 preps at 3 would be ideal?????
Assume the following. You are Elliott Walden or one of the other racing operation managers of one of these big breeding stables.

1. The breeding value of winning a TC race can be astronomical.
2. If you race the horse a lot as a 2 year old, there is a significant chance that the horse may suffer some sort of injury and will never make it to the TC.
3. If you race the horse a lot as a 2 year old, while there is an upside of possibly building the horse's form up so he or she can run a big number, there is also a downside that the horse could get worn out or regress before the TC.
4. Most of the entries in the TC are controlled by big breeding operations with the same imperatives you have and thus you are unlikely to see a strong entry with a lot of racing experience.

Now, in that situation, is it more rational for a breeding operation to put a lot of starts into the horse, or just try to time the horse's form so he is good enough to win with a peak effort on the first Saturday in May?

At any rate, that's my hypothesis. Note when we still see a horse with a more traditional record, like California Chrome, and a lot of talent, that horse can beat the big breeding operations in the Derby.

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Old 05-23-2018, 03:05 PM   #44
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What Justify is doing is so rare and difficult, if it becomes the model for anyone I predict great failure.
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Old 05-23-2018, 04:23 PM   #45
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What Justify is doing is so rare and difficult, if it becomes the model for anyone I predict great failure.
I think if it had happened 30 years ago this would be true. But at this point I thought it was pretty much overdetermined that some horse would do it (and I cashed a ticket on Justify in the Derby).

Most horses who are pointed to the Derby fail. But in a world where Derbies are won with 103 Beyers and everyone is trying to time their lightly raced horse's peak to occur on Derby day, what Justify is doing is not rare or difficult anymore.

If some major operation which gets the most expensive yearlings decided to campaign those horses the old fashioned way, however, they would on occasion produce a horse who could run a 110 Beyer on Derby day, and kick everyone's butt.
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