Unique Bella - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

SG4 · 01-08-2017, 11:53 PM

Seriously, we're 6 months into the career of a horse who has been touted as the 2nd coming & now after 2 races of finally putting it together & showing the hype is real nobody has said 1 word about her on all of PA?

Come on shouldn't the Unique Bella vs Songbird or Arrogate or the ghost of Secretariat argument have started by now?

All kidding aside, 3yo filly crop of this year so far has looked mediocre at best, and this one may be in a real different league & they might have to think for real about a Derby prep, although for now they've said Oaks is the goal. If you haven't seen this horse's works for the last several months, check them out on XBTV.com & remember that this was a 2yo filly putting up those kind of times with ridiculous ease. For those who don't know, she's by Tapit out of Distaff winner Unrivaled Belle, and she is a big girl to go with that big pedigree. Dam-sire is Unbridled's Song though, so I'm sure someone will point out they have it on good authority that she only has 1 or 2 more races in her tops. Mike Smith certainly has a way when it comes to finding those good ladies.

Spalding No! · 01-09-2017, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SG4

Dam-sire is Unbridled's Song though, so I'm sure someone will point out they have it on good authority that she only has 1 or 2 more races in her tops.

You don't need good authority to question her soundness or longevity. Just read the PPs. A 5 month layoff after her debut? I doubt that was by design.

Let's hope it isn't King Glorious all over again.

letswastemoney · 01-09-2017, 01:59 AM

This field wasn't that great, although I agree the filly crop is mediocre.

I need to see more

classhandicapper · 01-09-2017, 09:15 AM

The 2yo colt crop and BC Juvenile looked strong. The 2yo filly crop and BC Juvenile Fillies looked a lot weaker. It was probably just a matter of time before someone broke out among the fillies. I was impressed with Shane's Girlfriend's last time. She didn't have an ideal trip yesterday and perhaps she didn't run back to her previous win at DED, but Unique Bella made her look like a slug. That was impressive.

I didn't make a play because of the prices, but I'm starting to realize more and more how much I dislike these stakes for very lightly raced 2yos and 3yos from a gambling perspective.

A lot of recent maiden graduates and NW1 winners with big figures will disappoint badly when faced with the stiffer stakes competition even at this level, but some will reveal they are a lot better than they've shown to date and jump up a lot. The clues as to which ones will go in which direction are there for all to see (workouts - especially in company, visual hints, pedigree, trainer, owner, breeder etc...) but it feels like outsiders using "clues" are at a disadvantage against insiders that are actually getting to see these horses work on a daily basis.

To me, it was fairly obvious that both Unique Bella and American Anthem in the Sham were dangerous and highly likely to be better than their figures. But exactly how do you value "better than they look" against more established ability and quality like Gormley and Shane's Girlfriend? It feels way too much like a guess than a situation where you can know the values well and have a strong opinion on who is better.

cj · 01-09-2017, 10:17 AM

There was pretty crazy betting in that race. Unique Bella was 1 to 9 for a while and remained the heavy favorite for a long time, but Shane's Girlfriend actually wound up going off the favorite at 4-5 while Bella drifted to even money.

classhandicapper · 01-09-2017, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

There was pretty crazy betting in that race. Unique Bella was 1 to 9 for a while and remained the heavy favorite for a long time, but Shane's Girlfriend actually wound up going off the favorite at 4-5 while Bella drifted to even money.

When they opened up I was interested in betting Shane's Girlfriend at 3-1. I looked at the "will pays" and saw that they were probably going to go off a lot closer than that. So I decided to just watch. I could have sworn she was still around 8/5 while they were loading and then I saw her at 4/5 during the race. I actually got confused during the running of the race about who was who when I saw the odds.

Track Phantom · 01-09-2017, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

There was pretty crazy betting in that race. Unique Bella was 1 to 9 for a while and remained the heavy favorite for a long time, but Shane's Girlfriend actually wound up going off the favorite at 4-5 while Bella drifted to even money.

I was absolutely shocked by this. All the clocker reports had Unique Bella working off the charts (getting A ratings, something rarely seen). Given her breeding and the way she won in her maiden victory, I expected her to go off at 3-5 at most. I know Shane's Girlfriend was awesome at Delta Downs and would get bet, too, but even money on Unique Bella was a surprise. It appears there was a massive "late" bet on Shane's Girlfriend. Now it's 1 for 120,344 the amount of times late money was wrong.

classhandicapper · 01-09-2017, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I was absolutely shocked by this. All the clocker reports had Unique Bella working off the charts (getting A ratings, something rarely seen). Given her breeding and the way she won in her maiden victory, I expected her to go off at 3-5 at most. I know Shane's Girlfriend was awesome at Delta Downs and would get bet, too, but even money on Unique Bella was a surprise. It appears there was a massive "late" bet on Shane's Girlfriend. Now it's 1 for 120,344 the amount of times late money was wrong.

Those Clocker reports seem to have a bigger impact on the betting in CA than elsewhere. Is that true?

cj · 01-09-2017, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Those Clocker reports seem to have a bigger impact on the betting in CA than elsewhere. Is that true?

I don't think any other circuit really has detailed workout reports like SoCal, do they?

Track Phantom · 01-09-2017, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

I don't think any other circuit really has detailed workout reports like SoCal, do they?

Not to my knowledge. I know there are some directed at tracks like GP and AQU but the ones for So. Cal. are far more in depth and on point.

I was not a clocker report guy until I met tournament guy Jonathon Kinchen for beers one night here in Austin. He showed me the reports he used and pointed out things like who was up in the workouts (a big deal when you see someone like Tyler Baze working a horse in good work times but he opts for another runner in the race and things like that).

I was on the fence whether they would be beneficial until I used the regularly. I've used all 3 main reports (HR Report, Harrington Report and Turrel Report) and there is one that I trust above the others. On one of these reports, it seems the favorites always get good clocking grades. I don't trust that. But it helps when you can cross-reference all 3. I've found some nice things by doing that.

classhandicapper · 01-09-2017, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

I don't think any other circuit really has detailed workout reports like SoCal, do they?

DRF has a clocker report in NY, but to be honest I haven't looked at it too much.

Bruno De Julio may also sell some stuff.

EMD4ME · 01-09-2017, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I was absolutely shocked by this. All the clocker reports had Unique Bella working off the charts (getting A ratings, something rarely seen). Given her breeding and the way she won in her maiden victory, I expected her to go off at 3-5 at most. I know Shane's Girlfriend was awesome at Delta Downs and would get bet, too, but even money on Unique Bella was a surprise. It appears there was a massive "late" bet on Shane's Girlfriend. Now it's 1 for 120,344 the amount of times late money was wrong.

I ask this sincerely as I am NOT a cali capper. Are you referring to Cali late money being wrong? Or overall? I thank you in advance Track Phantom!

EMD4ME · 01-09-2017, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

DRF has a clocker report in NY, but to be honest I haven't looked at it too much.

Bruno De Julio may also sell some stuff.

They have it for Bel and Sar but not for AQU, am I right? Thanks in advance also Class!

Track Phantom · 01-09-2017, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I ask this sincerely as I am NOT a cali capper. Are you referring to Cali late money being wrong? Or overall? I thank you in advance Track Phantom!

Normally, the late (and early) money in So. Cal. is pretty accurate. Never understood that phenomenon but somehow those guys that race in the door two minutes to post and just get their bet in at the window are the guys who get it right. They should arrive earlier to make sure they don't get shut out

EMD4ME · 01-09-2017, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Normally, the late (and early) money in So. Cal. is pretty accurate. Never understood that phenomenon but somehow those guys that race in the door two minutes to post and just get their bet in at the window are the guys who get it right. They should arrive earlier to make sure they don't get shut out

So I misread your post, thought you meant the opposite. My fault.

OK, so they are just like NY lately with the massive unusual money being mostly right....(pushing ML's down a lot).