Is it my imagination or is Del Mar morning line awful?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The curious thing about Nitro, to me...is that he's never once tried to sell anyone anything...

He is a curiosity, no doubt. He keeps disparaging the "handicapping process" because handicapping can't possibly account for the horse's current physical condition...and then he follows the odds board, as if the people whom these "betting patterns" represent are horse whisperers who can read the horses' minds and know their intentions.

[v j stauffer]

I was helping a buddy with the Del Mar Tournament yesterday. His best bet of the weekend BY FAR was MEGA MOON in the last Sunday. I told him there was less than ZERO chance that horse would be 6-1. Predicted either 3-1 or 5/2. Just that one bad price completely changed the way he approached the entire tournament.

A bad morning line is devastating to real horse players.

I wish racetracks understood how important it is to have it be the best it can possibly be.

Most don't care and farm it off to underling(s) in the racing office who don't have a clue and are paid $10.00 a race.

Tragic. So important.

[dilanesp]

I agree with Vic on the importance of a good morning line. It definitely influences betting. (Indeed, the influence is significant enough that I'm surprised that there hasn't been a scandal involving some big money bettors paying off a morning line maker to do what they want.) And tracks think of it as an afterthought to assign to some employee who has 10 other duties and not enough time to devote to it.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I agree with Vic on the importance of a good morning line. It definitely influences betting. (Indeed, the influence is significant enough that I'm surprised that there hasn't been a scandal involving some big money bettors paying off a morning line maker to do what they want.) And tracks think of it as an afterthought to assign to some employee who has 10 other duties and not enough time to devote to it.

I like having a good morning line myself but as far as influencing betting I don't think so.Just read your last sentence and ask yourself who is actually being influenced?

[thaskalos]

I think the idea that the morning line is of significant importance originated with the on-track bookies, where the bookies started out by posting an opening line and then accepted fixed wagers on that line that they actually had to honor. the parimutuel version of horse racing is totally different. The way things stand now in our favorite sport, the morning line exists only because there is the notion out there that there should still be "something" at the very beginning of the wagering period that the horseplayers can "bet into". And I ask...would the wagering in a given race really be influenced in a negative way if the morning line was missing? Are the " real horseplayers" really affected by the morning line when they structure their wagers?

Speaking for myself, I have never considered the morning line in all my years of participating in this game. And if that makes me less than a "real horseplayer", then so be it.

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by trifecta

Equibase lists the exact same ml odds for races 6 and 7, which is possible, but most likely wrong.

Jon White tweeted it was his fault as he sent the same ml to the track for both races.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

And I ask...would the wagering in a given race really be influenced in a negative way if the morning line was missing? Are the " real horseplayers" really affected by the morning line when they structure their wagers?

I think this would be a fascinating experiment.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Are the " real horseplayers" really affected by the morning line when they structure their wagers?

I would say only to the extent they believe it impacts the odds in blind horizontals. That would allow them to adjust their thinking if they disagreed with the ML.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I would say only to the extent they believe it impacts the odds in blind horizontals. That would allow them to adjust their thinking if they disagreed with the ML.

That's where I think it has an effect. Blind horizontals and blind verticals. With no actual sense of who the favorites are in those pools, the morning line probably has a significant impact on bettor behavior.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

That's where I think it has an effect. Blind horizontals and blind verticals. With no actual sense of who the favorites are in those pools, the morning line probably has a significant impact on bettor behavior.

Definitely the horizontals....Marginal on the verticals.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The curious thing about Nitro, to me...is that he's never once tried to sell anyone anything...

My reaction to Poindexter’s sarcastic comments were felt exactly as I described them: trivial and insignificant. These are the type of statements made by both envious and naive individuals who have no concept of a particular subject. So rather than humble themselves to that end, they prefer to save face by making derisive remarks. I wasn’t about to get into a dispute about some silly reaction to my suggestions about viewing the Opening Odds versus the Morning Line.

In the meantime, the vultures circled and attempted to feed off those negative comments because they fall right into their own mentalities. So, as usual the gates opened for the ill-mannered to jump right into the conversation with their distinctive personal besmirchment. What else is new? But don’t take my word for it! Just scan the variety of posts they’ve made in response to any topic presented. Their pessimism and skepticism obviously suggest a personal attitude of overall failure and repulsion. Have they ever offered anything of constructive significance to this forum? No, they will only knock others who attempt to do just that.

Yes, the powers that be love controversy because they know it’s the life blood of the forum. The more drama the better in their eyes. Sure, we all have opinions, but shouldn’t we normally try to avoid personal confrontations.

I realize that my approach to the game may be counter intuitive to most handicappers here. Many fail to realize that I was once in their shoes and totally know the game from their perspective. I will never return to that methodology for any serious play. I would like to see anyone on this form produce the results I displayed on Belmont Stakes day. My preliminary selections were based solely on my handicapping abilities, but the live picks were all generated by the tote analysis. (You know the “Ouija board”) http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=176728

As far as selling anything goes, please be informed that I respect my non-disclosure agreement and sincerely value the information I’ve received. I would never even consider selling that program. Besides, who around here wants to be successful in betting the horses? All I can really see is a lot of gossip, with little to show for it in the Selection forum.

[metro]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I was helping a buddy with the Del Mar Tournament yesterday. His best bet of the weekend BY FAR was MEGA MOON in the last Sunday. I told him there was less than ZERO chance that horse would be 6-1. Predicted either 3-1 or 5/2. Just that one bad price completely changed the way he approached the entire tournament.

A bad morning line is devastating to real horse players.

I wish racetracks understood how important it is to have it be the best it can possibly be.

Most don't care and farm it off to underling(s) in the racing office who don't have a clue and are paid $10.00 a race.

Tragic. So important.

Is your friend a novice? If not why would he base his entire tournament on a m/l?

[Robert Fischer]

A morning line and/or race placement can swing a lot of advantage to a syndicate.

If you don't know the 8th race final-odds better than the morning line, it doesn't make you a novice, it just means you shouldn't be playing the 8th race.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I agree with Vic on the importance of a good morning line. It definitely influences betting. (Indeed, the influence is significant enough that I'm surprised that there hasn't been a scandal involving some big money bettors paying off a morning line maker to do what they want.) And tracks think of it as an afterthought to assign to some employee who has 10 other duties and not enough time to devote to it.

IMO there's really no way to influence anything by being incorrect on purpose.

That said, when it's bad it just sucks.

I can't tell you how many times, especially over the years at Oaklawn, I would find a horse that I was willing to make a very large bet on but forced to pass because of a bad line.

I'd know full well the horse should be 4-1 and I'd be willing to take a BIG swing.

Then get the sinking feeling when I saw it lined at 10-1 knowing exactly what was in the offing.

It would open correctly at 4-1 but now the so called sharpies (steam hunters) would think it was an insider action horse when it wasn't at all.

They'd pile on and now my 4-1 shot is 5/2 and going lower and right into the toilet as a wagering opportunity.

So frustrating.

If it had been correctly lined at 4-1 it would have closed at 4-1 or 7/2 and here we go.

Another of my favorite pet peeves is the guy who see's a horse, even if correctly lined, at 12-1 opening at 5-1 and screams "how in the hell can this horse only be 5-1?" as if he's the ONLY person in the world who saw the reasons for it being a live piece.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Nitro

My reaction to Poindexter’s sarcastic comments were felt exactly as I described them: trivial and insignificant. These are the type of statements made by both envious and naive individuals who have no concept of a particular subject. So rather than humble themselves to that end, they prefer to save face by making derisive remarks. I wasn’t about to get into a dispute about some silly reaction to my suggestions about viewing the Opening Odds versus the Morning Line.

In the meantime, the vultures circled and attempted to feed off those negative comments because they fall right into their own mentalities. So, as usual the gates opened for the ill-mannered to jump right into the conversation with their distinctive personal besmirchment. What else is new? But don’t take my word for it! Just scan the variety of posts they’ve made in response to any topic presented. Their pessimism and skepticism obviously suggest a personal attitude of overall failure and repulsion. Have they ever offered anything of constructive significance to this forum? No, they will only knock others who attempt to do just that.

Yes, the powers that be love controversy because they know it’s the life blood of the forum. The more drama the better in their eyes. Sure, we all have opinions, but shouldn’t we normally try to avoid personal confrontations.

I realize that my approach to the game may be counter intuitive to most handicappers here. Many fail to realize that I was once in their shoes and totally know the game from their perspective. I will never return to that methodology for any serious play. I would like to see anyone on this form produce the results I displayed on Belmont Stakes day. My preliminary selections were based solely on my handicapping abilities, but the live picks were all generated by the tote analysis. (You know the “Ouija board”) http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=176728

As far as selling anything goes, please be informed that I respect my non-disclosure agreement and sincerely value the information I’ve received. I would never even consider selling that program. Besides, who around here wants to be successful in betting the horses? All I can really see is a lot of gossip, with little to show for it in the Selection forum.

Nitro,

I will take you at your word that you were a serious handicapper for years that found the ticket to success with your tote board method and now will never go back. So assuming that is indeed the truth I have some questions for you.

What good does that do any of us. Your tote board method is not for sale (at least that is what you have posted in the past). Other than on rare occasions you don't post your tote board plays. So what is the point of you telling us how how good it is and how pointless it is for us to try to bet this game without it? Why are we the negative ones in attempting to beat this game despite the fact that the powers that be have done everything in their power to make this game unbeatable without rebates. Aren't you the negative one? In your op in this thread you basically told me that I am wasting my time handicapping a pick six mandatory payout. I have seen many of examples of these things paying many times a parlay, yet according to you I am wasting my time trying to figure it out. Wouldn't that mean basically that I am wasting my time ever betting a race without the "tote analysis". Let's take that to it's ultimate conclusion. I and all others here should never bet a race without the tote analysis. But we do not have access to this tote
analysis, thus in your world, we should never bet. But we are the negative ones? Go figure.

In your quest to enlighten us about how successful your "tote analysis" is you typically post 5 horses a race (I think it was more when you used to post Hong Kong". You have a disclaimer that you don't bet every race, so how does your most faithful follower determine what race is playable and what isn't. Moreover, if a race is not playable shouldn't that be denoted with the term unplayable for them to know it is not playable. Moreover if your top 2 horses come 1st 2nd or 3rd and your other horses complete the superfecta you give yourself credit for the superfecta. So just on the $2 superfecta alone (because you seem to always highlight the $2 payout) your cost would be a little high. Assuming 1-2 are your top 2 horses and 3-4-5 are the rest of your contenders, the play would be at minimum (to hit it once)

1-2 w 1-2-3-4-5 w 1-2-3-4-5 w 1-2-3-4-5 cost $96

3-4-5 w 1-2 w 1-2-3-4-5 w 1-2-3-4-5 cost $72

3-4-5 w 3-4-5 w 1-2 w 1-2-3-4-5 cost $48

cost for those 3 tickets alone $216. So when you highlight that the superfecta might have paid $700 on the one you hit. It is a tease. It is "tout" like.

Moreover, if you want to convince us that your tote method is indeed that special, why not just keep a running score. Example, I bet 7 superfectas at $216 each for a cost of $1512. Return was $2183. Keep bringing these returns forward. Why do you put the onus on others in this forum to track the math themselves, if indeed your sole purpose is to show us the light.


You have a curious obsession with trying to sell the entire forum on this tote analysis. I posted a thread about the Del Mar morning line being bad, and another poster (trifecta) correctly pointed out that there was a mistake in one of the morning lines (how often does that happen?). But your input was to ridicule me for even suggesting the morning line was bad (as if you would have a clue-considering you didn't even handicap the races) and then as you usually do went full promotion of your tote board methodology along with early money. But my understanding is you personally are not even aware of what makes a horse good on the software you use. So what exactly should I be looking for on the early money? 10-1 at 2-1, 10-1 at 6-1 or do you even know.?

You are no different than a small child that has a big piece of candy and want to let everyone know how big his candy is while none of the other kids have any candy. But there is something wrong with us? What would you have us do? Track all your plays. Determine that you are indeed profitable (when you can easily do that yourself as explained above) and then beg you to post your 5 horses so we can win too? Is that your ultimate goal? If not, what is your ultimate goal?