Younger Demo and Betting Harness Racing

[DeanT]

Article. http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/y...hing-about-it/

It seems the younger demo wants what many of us do, decent races to bet and better value.

[pandy]

Good column by Dean. The points he makes about the percentage of winning favorites is so true. He doesn't go into the reason why the favorites win so much more than they used to, which in my opinion is due to the pronounced speed and post position bias.

[Stillriledup]

I've been screaming from the rooftops about the 'evil' dime super and the equally evil 50 cent tri.

I must be like a tree in the forest that falls when nobody is around.

It doesn't make a sound.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ight=Evil+dime

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ight=Evil+dime

[mrroyboy]

It's a good article. Jeff Hwang is a poker player and writer but his ideas are good for horse racing too. Only recently have race tracks even cared about betting. Now they provide all kinds of information.
Don't know what else can be done but the industry seems to be making some good moves.

[Canarsie]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I've been screaming from the rooftops about the 'evil' dime super and the equally evil 50 cent tri.

I must be like a tree in the forest that falls when nobody is around.

It doesn't make a sound.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ight=Evil+dime

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ight=Evil+dime

Your kicking and screaming is 100% accurate when it comes to harness racing. If this was tried at either Keeneland or Woodbine (thoroughbred) there would have to be emergency CPR performed on the executives there who pushed so hard for it. Both state that handle has gone up significantly since the monetary reductions have been put into place.


I think it would be interesting to see separate pools with the lower wagers having higher takeout. For arguments sake lets make 10 or 20 cent supers, and 50 cent and $1 tris have a higher takeout rate by 5%. Management would probably know at Keeneland and Woodbine using one meet as criteria. They would also try to put me in front of a firing squad for suggesting it.

The other side will argue that the 50 cent P5 has replaced the P6 as an everyday bet among regular patrons not the whales.

[pandy]

The lower minimums probably hurt bettors a lot more at tracks that have low handle, as many of the harness tracks do. At major tracks or any track that handles at least a million per card, I think you could make a case that they help the handle.

However, I don't think 50 cent tries or 10 cent supers are the problem. Harness racing's problem is simple, the favorites win too high of a percentage...the favorites win too high of a percentage because of the speed and post position bias....the speed and post position bias came to fruition because of the evolution of sulky technology....

Here's what happens now in harness races, and this is especially true on half and five eighth tracks (which is what most of the tracks are).

A). The drivers who have the best horses (the favorite and second choice) leave the gate, because since they have the fastest horses and there is a speed bias, they may as well leave. So, at the quarter, the two favorites are first and second and either the front runner holds on or the horse in the two hole gets up in the stretch. This is the same scenario is about 90% of the races.

B). It's very tough to leave the gate from outside posts, so almost all of the races are won by posts 1 to 5 on half mile tracks (varies on five eighths).

And by the way, I know some people think that some horses are front runners and some are closers. Not really true in harness racing. Almost every horse in harness racing can be gunned to the lead. That's why you'll often see a horse that's been racing exclusively from off the pace drop in class and go wire to wire. The drivers want to earn as much money as they can and they also want to protect the bettors. So if a horse drops down to a winning level, they send the horse to the lead.

This is the problem that harness racing has created due to poor management of the sport, mainly by the track owners and operators. There are things that can be done to erase the speed and post bias, but most of the track operators are clueless. If I ran a harness track, there would be no speed or post position bias and the favorites would not win over 40% of the time as they do at most of these tracks.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by pandy

The lower minimums probably hurt bettors a lot more at tracks that have low handle, as many of the harness tracks do. At major tracks or any track that handles at least a million per card, I think you could make a case that they help the handle.

However, I don't think 50 cent tries or 10 cent supers are the problem. Harness racing's problem is simple, the favorites win too high of a percentage...the favorites win too high of a percentage because of the speed and post position bias....the speed and post position bias came to fruition because of the evolution of sulky technology....

Here's what happens now in harness races, and this is especially true on half and five eighth tracks (which is what most of the tracks are).

A). The drivers who have the best horses (the favorite and second choice) leave the gate, because since they have the fastest horses and there is a speed bias, they may as well leave. So, at the quarter, the two favorites are first and second and either the front runner holds on or the horse in the two hole gets up in the stretch. This is the same scenario is about 90% of the races.

B). It's very tough to leave the gate from outside posts, so almost all of the races are won by posts 1 to 5 on half mile tracks (varies on five eighths).

And by the way, I know some people think that some horses are front runners and some are closers. Not really true in harness racing. Almost every horse in harness racing can be gunned to the lead. That's why you'll often see a horse that's been racing exclusively from off the pace drop in class and go wire to wire. The drivers want to earn as much money as they can and they also want to protect the bettors. So if a horse drops down to a winning level, they send the horse to the lead.

This is the problem that harness racing has created due to poor management of the sport, mainly by the track owners and operators. There are things that can be done to erase the speed and post bias, but most of the track operators are clueless. If I ran a harness track, there would be no speed or post position bias and the favorites would not win over 40% of the time as they do at most of these tracks.

What methods would you employ to negate the speed bias?
Before you answer....Here's mine....
Increase the roll resistance of the sulky wheels.
Eliminate "time" as a factor in races. In other words, take the term "put a mark on the horse" would be eliminated from the lexicon.
Side note. Hot times are like long home runs in baseball. Fans love to see the horses go fast. We're Americans. For example, what's more exciting. A field of FFA pacers where the winner stops the clock at 1:55 or 1:47...?...
On closers...This applies to 7/8ths and mile tracks...Yes, there were horses that were dead spot on closers.....And yes, that type of horse can win on the bigger tracks.
Back when I had my short tenure as a groom, my boss was asked to drive his horse by another trainer who needed to replace the regular driver. He took the assignment. As a bonus, I got to paddock the horse. While I was checking equipment, The trainer told my boss, now at age 19 this was very funny to me, he said "I don't give a ( expletive) if the first quarter is thirty five seconds, you don't leave with this( expletive) horse."....I don't know why I thought it was funny. I guess it was his delivery....
On a serious note. I agree with your assessment as it applies to the half mile tracks. The inside horses are at a substantial advantage.

[pandy]

I've heard many fans say that the times don't mean much to them, but I'm sure others like the fast times.

Two ways to stop the bias, either longer races or slower bikes. Slower bikes won't happen, my guess is that longer races will. This year there have been harness races at 8, 8.5, 9, 10, and 12 furlongs.

[DeanT]

Nice letter to HRU, Bob. Some great stuff in it; I hope people take a read. It's late in the issue.

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/p...u100415.pdf?v2

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by pandy

I've heard many fans say that the times don't mean much to them, but I'm sure others like the fast times.

Two ways to stop the bias, either longer races or slower bikes. Slower bikes won't happen, my guess is that longer races will. This year there have been harness races at 8, 8.5, 9, 10, and 12 furlongs.

Varying distances would certainly add another challenge( not a problem) to handicapping. In fact I would rather enjoy the challenge.
I would imagine the outcome would be a bit more difficult to predict and with that, higher payoffs.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by DeanT

Nice letter to HRU, Bob. Some great stuff in it; I hope people take a read. It's late in the issue.

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/p...u100415.pdf?v2

Thanks Dean.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Varying distances would certainly add another challenge( not a problem) to handicapping. In fact I would rather enjoy the challenge.
I would imagine the outcome would be a bit more difficult to predict and with that, higher payoffs.

You are correct sir. The trick is experimenting with different distances at different size tracks to see what produces the desired effect, a more exciting and balanced race.

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by pandy

Two ways to stop the bias, either longer races or slower bikes. Slower bikes won't happen, my guess is that longer races will. This year there have been harness races at 8, 8.5, 9, 10, and 12 furlongs.

I remember Yonkers had a few 10F races carded towards the end of last year. This may have been when they were sending their signal over to France, but I liked the change up.

[camluck49]

All my younger friends including nieces and nephew. If they gamble it is at the casino. Either playing slots, roulette or Blackjack. The only under 35 horse racing gamblers i know. Have parents who bet on horse racing. Onsite at the track Its mostly people older than me. I will be 56 next month. Really i think its just a different generation. They have to many other choices besides gambling for entertainment. When you have limited funds gambling and losing gets old quick.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by camluck49

They have to many other choices besides gambling for entertainment. When you have limited funds gambling and losing gets old quick.

That's it in a nutshell I believe....

Imo, because of that very thing, I truly believe that Horse Racing and Harness Racing especially, are singing the last songs of it's once former heyday.... The people are not coming to the tracks, and the handles continue to dwindle on and onward downward....

As for longer races, not for me, I am a committed 1-Mile Man, and it has taken me many many years to master that aspect of this game of ours, which is making sense of pace and speed at the distance of 1-mile and using it to good advantage...

If, for me, they continue on with the notion that changing the distances will somehow save this game, then count me out, as I am too old and lack the wherewithal to make the changes necessary to play a different game than what we now have to reckon with....

I suspect that they will also chase many others who are in my shoes (old guys), with the thinking that this game will become better because of it...


I don't think that anything can save this game now....Because of the "children" aspect of it....

So enjoy what we have for as long as you can, cause that's it...