3-2-1 Betting System by RPM

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Nitro

No, actually based on Mr. Benter’s statement and his overwhelming success, I believe he has a very realistic and keen awareness of just how much inside information can impact the game. Nothing personal, but I believe those who ignore this basic fact are very naïve.

As we all know the only way a person can win consistently is inside information

Do you think Bill Benter would agree with the above statement?

My Quote:

This belief will destroy anyone's chances.

Why would I hesitate to repeat my quote to Mr. Benter?

I am missing your logic.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I wonder how long it took this guy to figure out he was being taken for the fool that he was? Anyone with half a brain would have recognized their credibility long before losing that kind of money!

I also have an actual true story to share. It’s about a family member who knew absolutely nothing about playing the horses. Back in the early 80’s her and her husband found themselves seriously in debt. I knew how bad their situation was because I had loaned them some money to get by. Apparently, her husband was also good friends with a jockey agent who owed him some favors.

So, in confidence he offered to help him out by giving him some live horses to play. He told him to start off with a $100 win bet and after it won, he said if you want to clear your debts you have to parlay the entire return on the next win bet. After 4 months and 12 straight parlayed winners, they were not only completely out of debt, but were able to afford a new car and make a down payment on a new home.

So, don’t tell me about the validity of inside information. My brother-in-law to this day admits that making the last bet was the most unnerving thing he had ever done, but he did it only because he was desperate and yet felt confident based on the previous information he received. He has never played another horse race since then.
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This is the most surprising part of the whole story, IMO.

Good for him! Smart guy!

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Nitro

No, actually based on Mr. Benter’s statement and his overwhelming success, I believe he has a very realistic and keen awareness of just how much inside information can impact the game. Nothing personal, but I believe those who ignore this basic fact are very naïve.

There's a difference between having inside information and watching the toteboard and thinking you're finding inside information. One is possible, the other (which you claim to do) isn't. Why? Because the people with "inside information" don't bet their money at a time when anyone can take advantage of it. It shows up on the board when the final horses are loading. That's a fact validated by watching that same tote board. Anything else is a straight-up lie.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by castaway01

There's a difference between having inside information and watching the toteboard and thinking you're finding inside information. One is possible, the other (which you claim to do) isn't. Why? Because the people with "inside information" don't bet their money at a time when anyone can take advantage of it. It shows up on the board when the final horses are loading. That's a fact validated by watching that same tote board. Anything else is a straight-up lie.

Or even later.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Or even later.

Subtle.
Very subtle.

And funny.

[zerosky]

Interesting article n the FT which touches on the avalanche of late money.

https://tinyurl.com/2j3lll85

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by zerosky

Interesting article n the FT which touches on the avalanche of late money.

https://tinyurl.com/2j3lll85

Not paywalled.

https://archive.fo/OhnEm

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Originally Posted by soflant

As we all know the only way a person can win consistently is inside information.

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Do you think Bill Benter would agree with the above statement?

I’m not sure where in the world the OP got that quote from! It certainly wasn’t from me, and I know for a fact that Mr. Benter would NOT agree with that statement primarily because of the significance of the term “Only”.

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

“Why would I hesitate to repeat my quote to Mr. Benter?”
I am missing your logic.

You’re not missing my logic, but rather what my previous statements implied and were based upon.
If you’re looking for the logic behind the testimony of Mr. Benter (whom I respect and would consider an expert in his mode of play), then I will offer a common-sense breakdown of what he actually stated:

Premise: “there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model.”

Inference: “Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it.

Consequence: “Their betting will be reflected in the odds”

Conclusion: The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

Note: The first rule of logic can be succinctly stated as: “

that in order to learn you must be discontent with what you already are inclined to believe and thus have a desire to move beyond this state of dissatisfaction”

.But, I’m not for a moment going to take for granted that your thinking will allow this transition to take place.

I can only add that the “Consequence” mentioned above once again presents a huge oversight common among the majority of horse players (even the most astute). That’s because it once again ONLY refers to and limited to one facet of the many betting pools available for examination. I know I’ve frequently mentioned many times about the fact that there’s an inherent relationship between the When, Where, and Volume of money going into all the available betting pools during a typical betting cycle. Accurately quantifying that relationship provides repeatable and recognizable betting patterns. It’s certainly not necessary to wait unit post time to make practical use of them.
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[ranchwest]

On the other hand, the "public choice" loses about 60% of the time.

[Dave Schwartz]

Nitro,

Whatever you are trying to teach me, I am not getting.

Perhaps I'm just too slow to be taught by you.

I will attempt to resist engaging on these topics with you.

[romankoz]

For the astute bettor there are many examples of insider information readily available by studying where trainers nominate and finally send their runners. Long distance visit costs money for most trainers that must be recouped as often as possible otherwise their owners are going to be upset too often if the failures are the only consistent factor.

The only other inside information I would consider valuable is knowing about minor injuries or setbacks a horse has had. Currently I know of a horse who has palate problems and an operation is highly likely plus castration is being considered. This horse ran about 10th last week at about 8/1 which was no surprise at all. What I want to know is when is the operation. THAT is insider information I am interested in.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by romankoz

For the astute bettor there are many examples of insider information readily available by studying where trainers nominate and finally send their runners. Long distance visit costs money for most trainers that must be recouped as often as possible otherwise their owners are going to be upset too often if the failures are the only consistent factor.

The only other inside information I would consider valuable is knowing about minor injuries or setbacks a horse has had. Currently I know of a horse who has palate problems and an operation is highly likely plus castration is being considered. This horse ran about 10th last week at about 8/1 which was no surprise at all. What I want to know is when is the operation. THAT is insider information I am interested in.

A very successful Raggy sheet player from years ago always said he had little interest of what horse "they" liked. He was very interested in the favorites that "they" knew based on reliable barn knowledge were hurting. He paid for this reliable inside information.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Nitro,

Whatever you are trying to teach me, I am not getting.

Perhaps I'm just too slow to be taught by you.

I will attempt to resist engaging on these topics with you.

Don't feel bad, Dave. We are ALL too slow to be taught by Nitro. That's why he has to keep hammering this "esoteric" information into our heads...in spite of our resistance to "move beyond our state of dissatisfaction".

[soflant]

As far as I am concerned I do not care who agrees with me or not. The fact remains with the exception of maybe 2%-5% of professionals who win on a consistent basis without inside information the rest of us may show a profit for a week or two but not for the whole meet. I'd say 95% or more come out on the losing end. We cannot make a consistent living just betting the horses without an other income. Naturally all the system sellers out there are not going to agree because it will cut down on their profits.

[John Barile]

Ladies and Gentlemen - A sudden rise in demand for my book got my antennas buzzing and a little detective work brought me back to this site and this posting.

First, I'd like to thank Dave Schwartz and the other members for the kind words. On the vast majority of days, the electronic communications I share are sent and are gone. A little boomerang action is always a pleasant surprise.

Dave and I did our interview many moons ago and it's safe to say I now have another 10 years of professional experience since that time and like my old football coach used to say, "you learn to do by doing".

Let me make just a couple of observations. While almost every big bet I make involves a trainer angle, it's not fair to say that I'm a pure angle player. Conventional handicapping methods often help to give my angle-based contender context. My wagers are often attenuated or upgraded depending on what else I expect to happen in the race.

For most players, making 40 or 50 bets a meeting at only one venue does not satisfy the itch, but this is how I put my money to work while also being able to sleep at night.

After 40 years at this and as a practical matter, I can tell you that you that the financial return on the energy and effort I have invested is simply not there, but that's not what it was/is about, really. Beating the game was always the objective and on that front I've succeeded.

That's not to say I regret devoting my free time to this endeavor. I have made some epic scores and made many great friends along the way.

Whatever handicapping method you utilize, you'd better believe in it with all your heart and soul. Most of my greatest plays have appeared on their face to be absurdly unlikely.

Thanks again for resurrecting the book. I offer free selections every Wednesday at Tampa if you are interested in getting a taste of what I do. Please visit my website for more info.

Good luck and good racing!
Johnny B.