Irish War Cry - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

PowerUpPaynter · 04-10-2017, 07:08 AM

Good day,

What do you guys makes of Irish War Cry? Is he the only horse to run two 100 plus beyers with a RAN sire line and Buckpasser in the X, sired by Curlin who had Exaggerator last year. A horse that finally learned to rate and make that type of Derby winning move. A horse that closed only as fast as he was needed in the Wood on a slow surface as Rajiv Maragh said he had so much horse under him he could of done whatever he wanted?

Or

Is he a horse that flopped really bad in the Fountain Of Youth then came back to run in the Wood Memorial where he passed a completely gassed allowance winner in the stretch and ran slow final fractions?

So what happened in the Fountain Of Youth? Was the Wood just a weak field? But arent most of these races weak fields?

Lots of questions with this one. Lets discuss.

CincyHorseplayer · 04-10-2017, 11:07 AM

Going into the FOY I thought he had done so much so fast that I knew it was possible he could regress. The Holy Bull race equaled my route rating for the Kentucky Derby. He was the only horse I was willing to bet Saturday because of it. And for the Derby itself all I needed was a solid effort for verification of the HB number. Big contender.

Robert Fischer · 04-10-2017, 11:56 AM

He drew wide in the FOY, and thus had to urge from the gate.
Then he attended the pace with Three Rules, a legit G2 7F horse.

He was clearly a top horse, The question was whether drawing wide in the Wood, would disadvantage him too much to overcome the 'Outwork clone' Battalion Runner, and then hold off the solid Chad Brown hype horse Cloud Computing.
The chances of him running that result looked more like 10 to 1 than 7 to 2, but the result was not a surprise at all.

PowerUpPaynter · 04-10-2017, 02:08 PM

Do the slow fractions from the Wood concern anyone? I know the track played slow all day. I like him but at the same I recognize I am kind of a homer for him as I live 15 mins from Monmouth Park and 20 mins from where he was born a bred. So I try to stay grounded with my opinion of him and like to hear what other people say. Luckily I have a 26-1 futures bet on him from pool 1 so I dont have to play him much on top of my exotics come derby day.

Spalding No! · 04-10-2017, 10:34 PM

Irish War Cry showed some modest improvement in Wood with regards to his running style. The horse has been practically a run-off in his other starts and was obviously vulnerable to pace pressure. He had a lot in the Laurel stakes and just held on, he had none in the Holy Bull and romped, and he dueled in the FOY and caved in.

In the Wood, his rider seemed to try and avoid the first flight by keeping him wide in the first turn from his outside post. However, as soon as they hit the backstretch, the old Irish War Cry came to the fore, dragging the jockey towards the front end. Maragh had him under stout restraint while full of run as they engaged Battalian Runner. The latter, despite looking dead to rights at the 3/8 pole, had a response to the challenge, only giving way inside the 1/8 pole. Irish War Cry was all out to clear him in a pedestrian finish.

Despite the increasing maturity, this horse is likely to get caught up in the early Derby pace if other speed lines up. Looks like Holy Bull Lite or Diet Unbridled's Song.

PowerUpPaynter · 04-11-2017, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Irish War Cry showed some modest improvement in Wood with regards to his running style. The horse has been practically a run-off in his other starts and was obviously vulnerable to pace pressure. He had a lot in the Laurel stakes and just held on, he had none in the Holy Bull and romped, and he dueled in the FOY and caved in.

In the Wood, his rider seemed to try and avoid the first flight by keeping him wide in the first turn from his outside post. However, as soon as they hit the backstretch, the old Irish War Cry came to the fore, dragging the jockey towards the front end. Maragh had him under stout restraint while full of run as they engaged Battalian Runner. The latter, despite looking dead to rights at the 3/8 pole, had a response to the challenge, only giving way inside the 1/8 pole. Irish War Cry was all out to clear him in a pedestrian finish.

Despite the increasing maturity, this horse is likely to get caught up in the early Derby pace if other speed lines up. Looks like Holy Bull Lite or Diet Unbridled's Song.

Rajiv kept looking back and since he didnt see anyone coming and knew he had a lot under him he didnt ask Irish War Cry to go til the 8th pole. Would he have had better final fractions and been more visually impressive if he asked him to go earlier?

f2tornado · 04-11-2017, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Rajiv kept looking back and since he didnt see anyone coming and knew he had a lot under him he didnt ask Irish War Cry to go til the 8th pole. Would he have had better final fractions and been more visually impressive if he asked him to go earlier?

He would have needed to add about 7 lengths to the margin of victory to meet the fractions angle. I still think this one has enough class and stamina to contend for a piece of the pie but predict he will be dinged by what I suspect will be a moderately fast Derby pace.

PowerUpPaynter · 04-11-2017, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He would have needed to add about 7 lengths to the margin of victory to meet the fractions angle. I still think this one has enough class and stamina to contend for a piece of the pie but predict he will be dinged by what I suspect will be a moderately fast Derby pace.

agreed, although i wouldnt be shocked if he won the derby, slow aqueduct track or not he'd have to be the first derby winner this century besides mine that bird to run those final fractions and win the derby. I dont think he will tank, could definitely see a top 4 finish. I think he could be a good Preakness horse and if runs well in the Derby i can see myself putting a large WIN bet on him in Baltimore.... getting waaaaaay ahead of myself

Andrick · 04-12-2017, 01:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

agreed, although i wouldnt be shocked if he won the derby, slow aqueduct track or not he'd have to be the first derby winner this century besides mine that bird to run those final fractions and win the derby. I dont think he will tank, could definitely see a top 4 finish. I think he could be a good Preakness horse and if runs well in the Derby i can see myself putting a large WIN bet on him in Baltimore.... getting waaaaaay ahead of myself

Somebody on the thorograph forums brought up a concerning issue with Irish War Cry a couple of days ago;

Raced on Nov 11th and didn't work again til Dec 2nd
Raced on Dec 31st and didn't work again til Jan 22nd
Raced on Feb 4th and didn't work again til Feb 25th
raced on Mar 4th and didn't work again til Mar 25th

He's a horse that his trainer feels needs to have 3 weeks after every race before he's comfortable putting him out for a work again. If this pattern continues up to the Derby then Irish War Cry will only be getting in one work before the Derby. The only time he entered a race off of one work was the Fountain of Youth, and we all know what happened there. If a horse shows a history of needing 3 weeks to recover from a race, I'm not so sure betting him back 2 weeks later in the Preakness after a demanding race like the Derby would be such a good idea.

PowerUpPaynter · 04-12-2017, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrick

Somebody on the thorograph forums brought up a concerning issue with Irish War Cry a couple of days ago;

Raced on Nov 11th and didn't work again til Dec 2nd
Raced on Dec 31st and didn't work again til Jan 22nd
Raced on Feb 4th and didn't work again til Feb 25th
raced on Mar 4th and didn't work again til Mar 25th

He's a horse that his trainer feels needs to have 3 weeks after every race before he's comfortable putting him out for a work again. If this pattern continues up to the Derby then Irish War Cry will only be getting in one work before the Derby. The only time he entered a race off of one work was the Fountain of Youth, and we all know what happened there. If a horse shows a history of needing 3 weeks to recover from a race, I'm not so sure betting him back 2 weeks later in the Preakness after a demanding race like the Derby would be such a good idea.

Nice catch.

PowerUpPaynter · 04-25-2017, 08:58 PM

we havent talked much about this horse in the past 2 weeks so i figured id resurrect the thread.

No one seems to think he can win. Im not gonna say he will but I surely wont say he can't. I just think he would wear down Always Dreaming like Battalion Runner given the chance. - SHOTS FIRED!!!

p.s. im a homer for this horse from jersey

boys at tosconova · 04-26-2017, 02:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

we havent talked much about this horse in the past 2 weeks so i figured id resurrect the thread.

No one seems to think he can win. Im not gonna say he will but I surely wont say he can't. I just think he would wear down Always Dreaming like Battalion Runner given the chance. - SHOTS FIRED!!!

p.s. im a homer for this horse from jersey

yes you have a chance to hit your 26-1 future bet. and yes you can feel good about it...at least b4 the race.

as i cut and paste my ramblings

he won by 3.5L and was widening in the process. he won big in the context of the race and bounced back nicely.

ran a beast of race he ran in the holy bull. race is fact enough that this is a really good horse and questioning fractions and if he's fast enough is really unwarranted.

i really think IWC and AD are at the top of the list. after these 2, well, it's gets a little difficult imo

i would really be surprised in the above two horses, and to a lil lesser extent classic empire. that 1 of those three horses should finish at least 2nd in a worse case scenario. how can you think otherwise?. those 3 horse are fast and will be a good spot in the race.

sadly, i hate saying it, but i would not be surprised if they made up the entire number.

MNslappy · 04-26-2017, 12:16 PM

Yeah everyone's saying this is the year we get a bomber winning it and it's wide open etc etc. Looks like it's setting up to be awfully chalky to me.

f2tornado · 04-26-2017, 01:32 PM

I think it's gonna be chalky on top but there's room for a price to hit the board somewhere. I couldn't help but compare IWC's big fig in the Wood that that of Frosted two years earlier. Both ran the race quite similarly sitting not far behind the leaders then pouncing. Frosted closed the final 3/8th in about 36.5 while IWC closed in 39.2, granted with a hotter early pace. Frosted certainly closed well in the Derby finishing 4th and perhaps could have had hit the show pool if he avoided more traffic. IWC will somehow need to avoid being passed with that pedestrian closing speed. There's too much speed this year for him to pull a War Emblem. I just can't see it and therefore taking my stand tossing this one from the win pool. I will play him somewhere in the trifecta but my gut tells me this one has a better chance to miss the board than hitting it.

PowerUpPaynter · 04-27-2017, 07:10 PM

http://thisishorseracing.com/news/in...=75&Itemid=312

As fugazi favorite Always Dreaming looks like donkey dump. Irish War Cry remains cool calm and collected.