On-Track Observation

[traynor]

If you want to understand horses, watch their ears. It can give you a big advantage over those who believe they are "trip handicapping" or "reading equine body language" by watching videos.

http://www.bbc.com/news/28583944

[Fingal]

Down at the walking ring you'll have people who look for the kidney sweat, chewing on the bit, dapples or the Joe Takach followers that look for stride. I watch ears, those things on a swivel. Are they alert, are they turned to the groom & jockey then turn back forward to the business at hand, or are they lackadaisical & listening to the crowd ?

[PhantomOnTour]

Due to so many folks playing from home (and thus limited views of the runners pre-race) I believe physicality handicapping is a viable avenue for someone who knows what they're seeing....and can get to the track itself to watch.

[thaskalos]

I recall seeing a video about horse body language, many years ago...and the ears were mentioned. But the advice was general in nature...as in, "flat ears indicate that the horse is in a bad mood".

From what I see...the vast majority of the horses have their ears pointed forward, with the occasional flicker as a reaction to the oncoming sounds.

This ear-inspection advice can get a little contradictory though...

http://www.wikihow.com/Understand-Horse-Communication

[traynor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I recall seeing a video about horse body language, many years ago...and the ears were mentioned. But the advice was general in nature...as in, "flat ears indicate that the horse is in a bad mood".

From what I see...the vast majority of the horses have their ears pointed forward, with the occasional flicker as a reaction to the oncoming sounds.

This ear-inspection advice can get a little contradictory though...

http://www.wikihow.com/Understand-Horse-Communication

Watch the horses as they are being led to the paddock. In many cases, the horses will determine among themselves who the winner of the race will be. That horse can often be determined by watching the ears of horses ahead and behind it--as if they are listening for instructions. For example, when a horse is fourth in line, the first three are continually swiveling their ears backwards, and the later horses are primarily pointing forward, it might be wise to take another look at all those Equibase numbers. They may be missing something.

There should come a time in every racegoers life when he or she sees some simple aspect of reality that most ignore or miss--and cashes a VERY healthy ticket as a result. It is very likely to completely change how one looks at horse races--for the better.

[traynor]

I think the reason many avoid (or minimize) onsite observation is a lack of self-confidence. Observation requires that one both develops and uses his or her own skills. For those willing to exert the effort, the rewards can be substantial. For those who require excuses for losing, it is an activity best avoided.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by traynor

Watch the horses as they are being led to the paddock. In many cases, the horses will determine among themselves who the winner of the race will be. That horse can often be determined by watching the ears of horses ahead and behind it--as if they are listening for instructions. For example, when a horse is fourth in line, the first three are continually swiveling their ears backwards, and the later horses are primarily pointing forward, it might be wise to take another look at all those Equibase numbers. They may be missing something.

There should come a time in every racegoers life when he or she sees some simple aspect of reality that most ignore or miss--and cashes a VERY healthy ticket as a result. It is very likely to completely change how one looks at horse races--for the better.

I agree with you...reality cannot be explained by mere numbers...and inaccurate numbers at that. I have spent considerable time thinking about the clues that body language provides -- especially the ears. It initially appeared to me that the horses might INDEED be motioning towards their "leader" with the flicking of their ears...but it later occurred to me that they might just as easily be arranging their plans for after the race.

As simple-minded as the numbers-player is to think that his numbers explain the horse racing world...I believe the body language player is equally simple-minded -- when he presumes to decipher the intentions of a horse by a brief and casual observance of its demeanor before the race.

What presumptions can we draw by watching a human athlete's demeanor before an athletic event...and why should equine athletes be any different?

Both the human and the equine worlds are more complicated than that...IMO.

PS...

I believe that more can be gained by watching the horse AFTER the race.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by traynor

I think the reason many avoid (or minimize) onsite observation is a lack of self-confidence. Observation requires that one both develops and uses his or her own skills. For those willing to exert the effort, the rewards can be substantial. For those who require excuses for losing, it is an activity best avoided.

Totally - I really don't know what I'm looking at, other than obvious signs of distress or energy.
I've told this story before, but...

I knew a very low % trainer at FG about 10-15yrs ago (I am talking about a 2-45 type trainer), but he took me into the paddock one day and started telling me about some runners who were off here or had some swelling there...and it was all Greek to me (calling Thaskalos!).
Sure enough - the sore runners didn't do well.
But the main gist is that I couldn't see the swelling or the sore right front, or any of it, really.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Totally - I really don't know what I'm looking at, other than obvious signs of distress or energy.
I've told this story before, but...

I knew a very low % trainer at FG about 10-15yrs ago (I am talking about a 2-45 type trainer), but he took me into the paddock one day and started telling me about some runners who were off here or had some swelling there...and it was all Greek to me (calling Thaskalos!).
Sure enough - the sore runners didn't do well.
But the main gist is that I couldn't see the swelling or the sore right front, or any of it, really.

The point is that you can learn to see it. For example, a sore horse moves in a particular way that indicates the area of soreness. It isn't necessary to go through some rigamarole about what one saw in a Joe Takach video, or read in a book somewhere. A shortcut is what the NLPers call "uptime."
http://www.nlppati.com/articles/uptime.shtml

Essentially, most people are too busy talking to themselves, worrying about how they will be perceived by other people, or rehashing the old days to pay attention to the real world in front of them. At racetracks, that can be costly.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Totally - I really don't know what I'm looking at, other than obvious signs of distress or energy.
I've told this story before, but...

I knew a very low % trainer at FG about 10-15yrs ago (I am talking about a 2-45 type trainer), but he took me into the paddock one day and started telling me about some runners who were off here or had some swelling there...and it was all Greek to me (calling Thaskalos!).
Sure enough - the sore runners didn't do well.
But the main gist is that I couldn't see the swelling or the sore right front, or any of it, really.

By his trainer stats...his healthy runners didn't do well either...

[Tom]

Even if you know what you are looking at, it still depends on how that appearance is start to start, as we have learned with TV races not long ago.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

By his trainer stats...his healthy runners didn't do well either...

Because they are to slow to win. Lots of trainers depend on their day rates and they don't want to lose horses, especially sound horses. Sound horses are easier to take care of and train. To avoid losing their day rate and an easy care horse, the horse is entered in races over its head. The other trainers won't drop a slip for what they feel is an over priced horse or the horse is entered in tougher non-claiming races. The plan is to keep the horse more than it is to win.

Then there are the trainers who erroneously over value a horses talent and owners who want to keep their animal as a pet.

Lots of factors for low percentage trainers with very sound horses. The horse may look great in the paddock, ears pricked, nice stride, good confirmation and still lose.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Show Me the Wire

Because they are to slow to win. Lots of trainers depend on their day rates and they don't want to lose horses, especially sound horses. Sound horses are easier to take care of and train. To avoid losing their day rate and an easy care horse, the horse is entered in races over its head. The other trainers won't drop a slip for what they feel is an over priced horse or the horse is entered in tougher non-claiming races. The plan is to keep the horse more than it is to win.

Then there are the trainers who erroneously over value a horses talent and owners who want to keep their animal as a pet.

Lots of factors for low percentage trainers with very sound horses.

My intention was to point out that a 2-45 trainer is not the best "laboratory" in which to conduct this sort of an experiment. Am I wrong?

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

My intention was to point out that a 2-45 trainer is not the best "laboratory" in which to conduct this sort of an experiment. Am I wrong?

Yes. If the trainer is purposely placing his charges in over their head, it has nothing to do with him not knowing or distinguishing which horses are sound. It has to do with economics not knowledge of horses. Economics can also mean darkening a horse's form to win a big score down the road.

I should point out these trainers usually have small barns and can't afford the economic hit of losing a horse.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Show Me the Wire

Yes. If the trainer is purposely placing his charges in over their head, it has nothing to do with him not knowing or distinguishing which horses are sound. It has to do with economics not knowledge of horses.

Good point. It is way too easy to believe one "understands a trainers intent" with little or no basis for that belief.