Who's your daddy?

[Capper Al]

For those of us who key exotics, what do you key on? Do you key off your long shot or the public favorite or your favorite. Who's your daddy?

I key off my long shot. I believe in leverage and that the profits go up exponentially on shots. The other extreme is the public favorite with the higher strike rate and lower payoffs.

[Capper Al]

I did a short rearch, maybe 100 races or so, about 30 years ago in my harness racing days. The results were that keying the public favorite had the highest return. Maybe it's time for another study?

[Matt Bryan]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I did a short rearch, maybe 100 races or so, about 30 years ago in my harness racing days. The results were that keying the public favorite had the highest return. Maybe it's time for another study?

I typically key on a horse I think can win, that's not the public favorite or a long shot (unless the long shot or the favorite is warranted)....essentially, the middle way.

As I've read from professional handicappers, people often confuse long shots with value, instead of looking for 'real' value. For example, if you think a particular horse has a 50% chance to win (i.e. 1-1 odds), and it's going off as the favorite at 5-2, then there's value there. It might make sense to bet the favorite. Many will toss a favorite offering value as a matter of habit, for a 30-1 horse with little to no chance of winning, because they foolishly mistake high odds for value.

I'm sure you know all this, but it's currently fresh on my mind.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Matt Bryan

I typically key on a horse I think can win, that's not the public favorite or a long shot (unless the long shot or the favorite is warranted)....essentially, the middle way.

As I've read from professional handicappers, people often confuse long shots with value, instead of looking for 'real' value. For example, if you think a particular horse has a 50% chance to win (i.e. 1-1 odds), and it's going off as the favorite at 5-2, then there's value there. It might make sense to bet the favorite. Many will toss a favorite offering value as a matter of habit, for a 30-1 horse with little to no chance of winning, because they foolishly mistake high odds for value.

I'm sure you know all this, but it's currently fresh on my mind.

Agree. Value is not necessarily a long shot. The goal here is what horse to key on. Since this thread was started, I've been testing a new daddy-- tote action. It's going well. Here's what I'm looking at.

My choices in order of how I see them A-B-C-D-E horses.

A: 5/2 no tote action. No value.
B: 10/1 no tote action. Value
C: 2/1 tote action. No Value
D: 8/5 tote action. No Value.
E: 15/1 no tote action. Value is only consider for top four.

Old way keying on value:

Place $10 on B.
Exacta $1 ACD/B
Tri $0.50 B/ACDE/ACDE ACDE/ACDE/B

New way Keying on tote action:

Place $10 Skip -- only play if value has tote action
Exacta Box $1 BCD
Tri $0.50 CD/ACDE/B

[Shelby]

I NEVER key the public fave. I've won some nice supers when the fave doesn't finish in the top 4.

[Matt Bryan]

Yeah, keep us posted.

I'm more apt to go with your new way on the exacta, or put the B over the ACD.

With a modest bankroll, lately I find myself splitting up TRIs into separate wagers, instead of one big keyed bet. For example, I had a nice TRI payout recently with the following wagers:

B/AE/ACDE
B/CE/ACDE

Knowing the A and C wouldn't pay much, I didn't want full shares (so to speak) - risk vs. reward. But, I did want the full payout on the B and E combo, in the event the E placed. You can shave off some dollars, plus have a better chance of staying under the tax threshold.

I guess my point is (based on your example), you could do a:
B/AE/ACDE
B/CE/ACDE
B/DE/ACDE

...for $9, versus a B/ACDE/ACDE for $6....but, if the B and E come in, it obviously pays 3X the single keyed wager....an equivalent B/ACDE/ACDE payout would cost $18.

I'm sure I sound like an asshole as a semi-newby here. But, it currently makes sense (to me) that value should also be reflected in wagering structure.

I've actually never placed a bet at a window....to a real person. Meaning, I think some traditional wagering styles are passe, or antiquated, much like past performances - like dealing with fifths of a second. In other words, terms like "keying" are sort of foreign to me, as I use a machine....even though I key, I don't think in those terms. Just sayin'.

[Capper Al]

My testing keys with the action horses. In my example, C and D.

[BettinBilly]

I KEY off of my value horse every time with few exceptions. I admit that I KEYED the Favorite on a few races this year, but that is the rare exception, not the rule. BTW, I LOST those Favorite KEYS, as I deserved to.

[fmolf]

i let each race i consider betting present the betting oppertunities for me.No sense in keying a horse to win against a legitimate fav.....i would key the fav. over a couple value plays in the underneath spots...I also like Mitchells ideas about the trifecta.......a/bcd/bcde works surprisingly well!
bcd/a/bcde
bcd/bcde/a

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by fmolf

i let each race i consider betting present the betting oppertunities for me.No sense in keying a horse to win against a legitimate fav.....i would key the fav. over a couple value plays in the underneath spots...I also like Mitchells ideas about the trifecta.......a/bcd/bcde works surprisingly well!
bcd/a/bcde
bcd/bcde/a

I did a small sample study on exactas once back in the day. I found that I would have most profitable by keying the favorite.

[classhandicapper]

Structuring my bets to match my handicapping opinions is my biggest weakness. I need to spend more time thinking about that.

Yesterday, my Whitney bet was structured around beating Will Take Charge. I didn't like him.

I thought Palice Malice was easily the most likely winner, but not good betting value. There were several others I thought represented good value for various reasons.

I wound up playing Palice Malice over/under the value and all the value to each other very lightly in case PM blew out altogether (which I did not expect). I wound up hitting the exacta, but only made a few dollars on the race. Even after the fact I'm not sure I played the race properly. In pure value terms I probably did not. But if you get too extreme, you open yourself up to ridiculous losing streaks. I tried to structure balance. Ticket construction is the toughest part of the game for me. It's pretty sad when your primary opinion was correct, you hit that large an exacta and you barely make money on the race.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Structuring my bets to match my handicapping opinions is my biggest weakness. I need to spend more time thinking about that.

Yesterday, my Whitney bet was structured around beating Will Take Charge. I didn't like him.

I thought Palice Malice was easily the most likely winner, but not good betting value. There were several others I thought represented good value for various reasons.

I wound up playing Palice Malice over/under the value and all the value to each other very lightly in case PM blew out altogether (which I did not expect). I wound up hitting the exacta, but only made a few dollars on the race. Even after the fact I'm not sure I played the race properly. In pure value terms I probably did not. But if you get too extreme, you open yourself up to ridiculous losing streaks. I tried to structure balance. Ticket construction is the toughest part of the game for me. It's pretty sad when your primary opinion was correct, you hit that large an exacta and you barely make money on the race.

Class,

Structuring bets is the toughest part of the game. Our dilemma is between the more certain low odds horses and the necessity of getting value. Since starting this thread, I have changed my mind from wheeling on the value horse. I now use the tote-board that confirm one of my selections as the key horse. For example, my selections A-B-C-D-E in that order of preference. Given a ten horse field:

A: 8/5
B; 7/2 (tote-board selection with a Morning line of 15/1)
C; 10/1 (the absolute truth horse, a value play)
D: 5/2
E: 8/1

As you can see, I would hope to hit on the C horse. But that's a long shot. My second pick (the B horse) is getting 7/2, not too bad but not a value play in my estimation. Going with the flow, I key on the B horse instead of the C horse. Why? I can still get lucky and hit a B/C combination. If the other combinations hit, which now is more likely because I'm going on the active horse, then these would be considered hedging my bet eliminating long losing streaks. The rules to key on a bet are simple. Don't key on a 6/5 or less horse. And, of course, have at least one value play. Also pass if your A horse is 6/5 or less. You would be betting against yourself. Good Luck.