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Old 05-25-2014, 10:37 PM   #1
Errol
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How to get rid of the favourite????????

I somehow went to the trouble to pose this question– yesterday – then wiped it all gone!!!! And didn't have the heart to re-compose it.

And it was a masterful question. Composed to peek your curiosity. Well I'm sure that with a new slant I'll do even better.

But first (open lions mouth insert head) value Handicapping. VALUE HANDICAPPING, VALUE HANDICAPPING is a lot of HOGWASH.

VALUE HANDICAPPING is a LOT OF HOGWASH.

Don't pick winners, pick value and you'll be ahead of the game. Pick 42% winners then throw away 25%. And the rest will fill your pockets with cash. HOGWASH. HOGWASH!!!!!!!

If you can pick one horse per race, win 42% of your wagers and make a FLAT BET profit. Who in their rite mind would care if 25% of them were on the post time favourite.

On this forum as well as other forums I hear "I handicapped all night to pick the winner, Only to have him turn out the post time favourite," "What a let down". To hell with that, put the meager winnings in your pocket and move along, move along.

In every incident in the past when I've avoided my #1 cause he was der favourite I've lost money. I'm after every winner in every race and I won't throw out the FAV without good reason.

When you bet against the favourite you need to know what you're doing.

And I get in trouble here. So my question to you is.

What's your rule/rules for spotting a phoney favourite. What lets you look at the post time favourite and say "They screwed up, this thing shouldn't be the favourite".

Here is one thing I've done in the past. Jot down the odds at 5 min to post, then again at 1 min. If the favourite goes up in odds pass the horse or the race.

Vaya Con Dios
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Old 05-26-2014, 02:17 AM   #2
goatchaser
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When everyone wakes up tomorrow your going to have a very Hot Post.
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Old 05-26-2014, 04:40 AM   #3
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If only 1 out of 4 of your winners are the post time favorite, you're probably doing alright. Don't change a thing.
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Old 05-26-2014, 08:51 AM   #4
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It is not the opposition to wagering favorites that is the source of the "advice" not to do so. The source is the inability of the "advisors" to select enough winners to make wagering profitable.

It doesn't matter what the "statistics of the crowd" do or do not indicate. It only matters whether or not you--as an individual bettor using his or her own selection criteria and strategies--can select enough winners to turn a profit. Not on paper, not in back-fitting disguised as "research"--in the real world.

The dark side of "value betting" is that it is an attempt to hide a lack of skill in selecting winners by calling it something else.

I bet lots of favorites--mostly because in most races I wager early and have no idea what the actual odds will be, or what "the crowd" will do. I do well. I don't think much of the crowd's opinions anyway--if they knew anything useful they would be dong MUCH better.
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Old 05-26-2014, 09:39 AM   #5
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Much better?
Really?
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Old 05-26-2014, 12:50 PM   #6
therussmeister
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My rule for spotting a phoney favorite is; it is not the best horse. It's that simple.
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Old 05-26-2014, 04:11 PM   #7
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You can toss the morning line favorite in the 4th at Santa Anita today. #8 Ready for a J. Not because going through withdrawals or anything like that, but he was off 10 months, came back with fronts, was over run quite easy at the top of the stretch and then was passed by half the field at the wire in a blanket finish, which is always a horrible sign. Not sure he'll be the post time favorite, but would be extremely surprised if he won. Blanket finishes filled with closers are a real no-no for ML favorites. Awful bet. The only good blanket finish is 3 slugging it out from the 3/16ths home.
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Old 05-26-2014, 04:33 PM   #8
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I think you can toss the ML fav in the 6th at Santa Anita also. #1 Stormin Lute. Baffert started him in a MSW 5/2013 and the horse nearly won that debut at 6 1/2 furlongs. But then followed a 3 month layoff and a drop to rock bottom. He won, and was claimed by Miller, who entered him 2 weeks later in a StAl40m, only to scratch him and shelve him for 9 months. He brings him back in a claiming N2L. So he waits 9 months to race after the claim, and doesn't bother to protect him, even though I think the horse would qualify for the claiming waiver rule they have in California.

The common thread for these two I feel good about tossing.........looks like the trainers are taping them together after long layoffs to keep them moving. Both these horses look very speculative and should be bet as such, which means favoritism is too precarious for starters with such questionable health.

There you are, the first rule of tossing a favorite is that if there is ample reason to question the horse's overall health, get rid of it. You will pay the price now and then if you follow any rule too religiously, but since it's the favorite we're talking about, it's not like you're ever going to miss out on a price.
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Old 05-26-2014, 04:42 PM   #9
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One of the most common bad value favorites is a horse that earns a big speed figure but is not likely to repeat that figure - for instance, the horse that gets loose on the lead over a speed favoring track. I actually downgrade all wire to wire winners that won on a day when speed was carrying.

A horse that comes from far off the pace and wins after there's a wicked pace that produces a pace meltdown. The winner's figure is suspect, the horse was passing tired horses, and the fast pace produced an unusually fast final time for the class.

There are many reasons why favorites are suspicious. It's much easier to show a profit betting non-favorites. You also have the bounce after a horse produces a new lifetime top.

Last edited by pandy; 05-26-2014 at 04:43 PM.
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Old 05-26-2014, 04:49 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
I think you can toss the ML fav in the 6th at Santa Anita also. #1 Stormin Lute. Baffert started him in a MSW 5/2013 and the horse nearly won that debut at 6 1/2 furlongs. But then followed a 3 month layoff and a drop to rock bottom. He won, and was claimed by Miller, who entered him 2 weeks later in a StAl40m, only to scratch him and shelve him for 9 months. He brings him back in a claiming N2L. So he waits 9 months to race after the claim, and doesn't bother to protect him, even though I think the horse would qualify for the claiming waiver rule they have in California.

The common thread for these two I feel good about tossing.........looks like the trainers are taping them together after long layoffs to keep them moving. Both these horses look very speculative and should be bet as such, which means favoritism is too precarious for starters with such questionable health.

There you are, the first rule of tossing a favorite is that if there is ample reason to question the horse's overall health, get rid of it. You will pay the price now and then if you follow any rule too religiously, but since it's the favorite we're talking about, it's not like you're ever going to miss out on a price.

I agree in the 6th...using 367
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Old 05-26-2014, 05:04 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BetHorses!
I agree in the 6th...using 367
Oh man. Good luck. #2 Mavericks Gun looks really scary to me. If he weren't in there, I'd go 4,6,7 but I'm thinking Mav looks kind of singley.
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Old 05-26-2014, 05:17 PM   #12
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I'm not as down on so-called suspicious drop downs as I was years ago. Horses don't race that often now so trainers need to put the horse in a winning spot. Years ago it was a great angle, now many big drop down horses win.
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Old 05-26-2014, 06:08 PM   #13
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well, the results of the 4th just knocked out 75% of the tickets, minimum, I'd guess. 1st leg, BAAAAAZZING!!
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Old 05-26-2014, 06:10 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
I'm not as down on so-called suspicious drop downs as I was years ago. Horses don't race that often now so trainers need to put the horse in a winning spot. Years ago it was a great angle, now many big drop down horses win.
Agreed, but every situation is it's own unique development. I'm not down on the Miller in the 6th because he's a big drop down, or was a big drop down. I'm against him because I think there's a lot of duct tape under the hood, if you know what I mean.
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Old 05-26-2014, 06:39 PM   #15
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When you make an odds line, sometimes the favorite will still be an overlay.

At other times, when you handicap and your odds line reflects the public opinion, then just enjoy watching the race.

I don't have any rules for a false favorite, but I know one when I see one...

I also know, that I don't see one very often... the public is not dumb.

Some of my favorites (false favorites)are younger going against older first time...

You can also spot vulnerable favorites such as Henny Hughes, and others like him, that were big time 2 year olds, but don't figure to stretch out...

But different distance/surface can be a play all of it's own...

None of this is cookie cutter...

On the other hand, you do have players that specialize in chalk selections.

They strictly play the chalk.

Some of it is mindset.
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