April Picks - Page 4 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Ray2000 · 04-27-2014, 05:35 AM

Yesterday, 9 races, 2 wins, 5 placed, $36 in $38.00 back

Code:

							
4/1/14 To 4/26/14 ---- 156 Races
   	Bet	Return	Net	ROI	Hits	Strike	Ave
Win	312	279.40	-32.60	0.90	36	23%	$7.76
Place	312	296.90	-15.10	0.95	69	44%	$4.30

Sunday, April 27
BMLP R5 #5 Nitrogen Fuse-8/1
BMLP R7 #9 Gram Legend-8/1

FLMD R4 #6 All Chrome-12/1
FLMD R6 #5 Hectors Passion-8/1
FLMD R8 #4 Gunga Win-4/1

Ray2000 · 04-28-2014, 08:17 AM

Yesterday, 5 races, no wins, 2 placed, $20 bet $7.20 back
Running out of April, need a couple of poppers to get back "on track"
and this bot's not built for it.
Place Bets Strike Rate is on target but low on ROI
Actually need another hundred races to draw any conclusions.

Code:

				
4/1/14 To 4/27/14 ---- 161 Races		
   	Bet	Return	Net	ROI	Hits	Strike	Ave
Win	322	279.40	-42.60	0.87	36	22%	$7.76
Place	322	304.10	-17.90	0.94	71	44%	$4.28

Monday, April 28
LON R9 #4 Jackstan-8/1

MEA R10 #5 Tiffany-12/1

NFLD R2 #5 Arianna Hall-6/1
NFLD R13 #5 Kennairn Life Sign-10/1

WDB R4 #3 Manchester-8/1

Sea Biscuit · 04-28-2014, 01:10 PM

Woodbine April 28

Race 4 #5 Midnite Romp W/P Exacta Box 4/5

Race 5 4/5 contenders in order of preference.
#3 Peter Pumkineater
#7 Docs Hoss
#9 Kennairn Buckwheat
#5 Luigi
#2 Duke Did It

Race 7 #3 Kindly Poet W/P

Race 8 #2 Whiskey N Pie Coming off a Q with JJ aboard. NAC eligible.

Race 9 #2 Smarty Pants with #6 Wheeling N Dealin

Race 10 #3 Marco De Vie

Good luck to all

Ray2000 · 04-28-2014, 01:43 PM

OK Sea Biscuit. Good Luck back,
....R4 I'll toss in the 3 (Manchester-8/1) ...box 345

R9 I like it straight 2-6

R11 20¢ Hi Five...........689/689/689/68915/6891527 ...$7.20 I think

Sea Biscuit · 04-28-2014, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray2000

OK Sea Biscuit. Good Luck back,

R11 20¢ Hi Five...........689/689/689/68915/6891527 ...$7.20 I think

Haha. Those Hi5s can be tough to calculate.

Here is one calculator that does that in a jiffy. Use the Sperfecta5 feature.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/.../WagerCalc.exe

Ray2000 · 04-29-2014, 05:13 AM

thx for calc link, Sea, it's a good one.

Yesterday, 5 races, 3 wins, 4 placed, $20 bet $42.70 back

Code:

			
4/1/14 To 4/28/14 ---- 166 Races		
   	Bet	Return	Net	ROI	Hits	Strike	Ave
Win	332	303.70	-28.30	0.91	39	23%	$7.79
Place	332	322.50	-9.50	0.97	75	45%	$4.30

Tuesday, April 29
LON R1 #3 Modern Day Nite-10/1

MEA R5 #5 Camturo Beach-6/1
MEA R11 #5 Stanhope-10/1

NFLD R9 #2 Larry P-8/1...........I'm with GSBob on this one.
NFLD R10 #9 Bonners Creek-5/1

Sea Biscuit · 04-29-2014, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray2000

OK Sea Biscuit. Good Luck back,
....R4 I'll toss in the 3 (Manchester-8/1) ...box 345

R9 I like it straight 2-6

R11 20¢ Hi Five...........689/689/689/68915/6891527 ...$7.20 I think

Good call on Manchester Ray. 8-1 ML pays 5 bucks.

Ray2000 · 04-30-2014, 06:14 AM

thx Sea, ..hard to find a decent price anymore, I'll have more to say on that tomorrow, at the end of this run.

Yesterday, 5 races, 1 win, 2 placed, $20 bet $12.60 back

Code:

				
4/1/14 To 4/29/14 ---- 171 Races
   	Bet	Return	Net	ROI	Hits	Strike	Ave
Win	342	308.30	-33.70	0.90	40	23%	$7.71
Place	342	330.50	-11.50	0.97	77	45%	$4.29

Wednesday, April 30
BMLP R7 #1 Fox Valley Sienna-10/1

HAR R2 #7 U-B-9/2

NFLD R11 #1 Deringer Gun-9/2
NFLD R13 #5 Wildatthebeach-5/1

PCD R8 #1 Hi Ho Disguise-9/2

PHL R12 #6 Most Happy Dragon-6/1
PHL R14 #5 Bear King-6/1

Ray2000 · 05-01-2014, 05:56 AM

Yesterday, 7 races, 2 wins, 4 placed, $28 bet $29.00 back
April Picks Summary,

Code:

	
4/1/14 To 4/30/14 ---- 178 Races		
   	Bet	Return	Net	ROI	Hits	Strike	Ave
Win	356	318.90	-37.10	0.90	42	24%	$7.59
Place	356	348.90	-7.10	0.98	81	46%	$4.31

End of April, End of run.

One of the reasons I did this run can be seen in the graph below.
I guess this is technically RedBoarding but so what..

The lines show a 2 year P/L balance for Win and Place bets using this runs robot engine.
The Win line (blue) has humped and is in decline, Place bets still eke out a small positive return.
I was mostly interested in the Place Bet Strike Rate and I'm satisfied it's remained the same.
It's the average return when hit that is declining...

It's getting tougher and tougher to turn a profit in this game and it's got to the point where
"The game is no longer worth the candle"....even with rebates.
Average win mutuel is about the same but low prices are getting lower with a few poppers getting larger,
and most significantly, the overlays are drying up.

The Exacta and Pick(x) pools are following the same trend.

CX Wong in his book "Precision..." uses an Rsquared method to show how the crowd keeps getting smarter and overlaid horses are disappearing in T-Breds.
Same for Harness....
Here's his accuracy method but using figures for Harness . (2013 is first year the "crowd smarts" has leveled off.)

Year....Races... Score
2008....59246... 0.243
2009....56824... 0.248
2010....42957... 0.251
2011....49279... 0.253
2012....40745... 0.264
2013....46523... 0.259

With so many expert picks on the net and computer bots analyzing the pp lines and watching the tote,
it takes a lot of work just to break even.

Good Luck to All, It's been fun...

.
Post Script (pun intended)
I've posted picks here since 2008 for the main reason of attracting newcomers to the game. To do that you need to show that the game can be profitable if you put in the effort. They'll come for entertainment but will stay if their losses can be held to an acceptable minimum i.e. low take rates and rebates for all. And then maybe some will see the other side of the game, a sport with a rich history and animals busting their heart to WIN for a bucket of oats.

mrroyboy · 05-01-2014, 12:46 PM

Ray you can't quit. You are the king of this site. Your picks made way in advance come close to breaking even. That is an incredible result.
Here's the thing. When I post my picks I put it out there for people to look at the race. They may agree with me or not. They may bet my picks or not. But whether or not my picks show a profit is not the point. Good handicappers will build on them and make money.That's the point.
It's the same with you Ray. Don't give up.

Ray2000 · 05-01-2014, 02:46 PM

chester
$8
$7
$3
$3
$75
$3
$153

freehold
$2
$4
$25
$93
$17

Where did the 10$ horses go?

Sorry roy, my heart's no longer in it....

Sea Biscuit · 05-01-2014, 04:07 PM

Ray please don't quit.

You are the heart and soul of PA.

LottaKash · 05-01-2014, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit

Ray please don't quit.

You are the heart and soul of PA.

Biscuit, he ain't quittin....He won't and he can't...It is in his "being"....

Ray will cook up another cool scheme, just watch and see....Wanna bet ?

"SHANE COMEBACK, MOTHER WANTS YOU"....

z

Ray2000 · 05-01-2014, 06:11 PM

Just taking a break here....I've never had 3 losing months in a row before.

Still playing the contests, (they're FREE

)... need The Grey Bullet in Race 6 at the Vernon ShowDown tonite.

and will be tweeting picks

traynor · 05-01-2014, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray2000

Yesterday, 7 races, 2 wins, 4 placed, $28 bet $29.00 back
April Picks Summary,

Code:

	
4/1/14 To 4/30/14 ---- 178 Races		
	Bet	Return	Net	ROI	Hits	Strike	Ave
Win	356	318.90	-37.10	0.90	42	24%	$7.59
Place	356	348.90	-7.10	0.98	81	46%	$4.31

End of April, End of run.

One of the reasons I did this run can be seen in the graph below.
I guess this is technically RedBoarding but so what..

The lines show a 2 year P/L balance for Win and Place bets using this runs robot engine.
The Win line (blue) has humped and is in decline, Place bets still eke out a small positive return.
I was mostly interested in the Place Bet Strike Rate and I'm satisfied it's remained the same.
It's the average return when hit that is declining...

It's getting tougher and tougher to turn a profit in this game and it's got to the point where
"The game is no longer worth the candle"....even with rebates.
Average win mutuel is about the same but low prices are getting lower with a few poppers getting larger,
and most significantly, the overlays are drying up.

The Exacta and Pick(x) pools are following the same trend.

CX Wong in his book "Precision..." uses an Rsquared method to show how the crowd keeps getting smarter and overlaid horses are disappearing in T-Breds.
Same for Harness....
Here's his accuracy method but using figures for Harness . (2013 is first year the "crowd smarts" has leveled off.)

Year....Races... Score
2008....59246... 0.243
2009....56824... 0.248
2010....42957... 0.251
2011....49279... 0.253
2012....40745... 0.264
2013....46523... 0.259

With so many expert picks on the net and computer bots analyzing the pp lines and watching the tote,
it takes a lot of work just to break even.

Good Luck to All, It's been fun...

.
Post Script (pun intended)
I've posted picks here since 2008 for the main reason of attracting newcomers to the game. To do that you need to show that the game can be profitable if you put in the effort. They'll come for entertainment but will stay if their losses can be held to an acceptable minimum i.e. low take rates and rebates for all. And then maybe some will see the other side of the game, a sport with a rich history and animals busting their heart to WIN for a bucket of oats.

When competing with computer apps, it is useful to determine what they are doing (not necessarily how, but what) and then to do something else. That is, rather than boxing the boxer, or wrestling the wrestler, locate their weak spots and use those weak spots to your advantage.