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01-18-2018, 08:14 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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And down we go
Been handicapping SoCal for about 17 years now. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses go from $10K to $8K, and then to $6,250. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses on the turf go from $40k to $25K. I've seen the lowest maiden claiming price for older horses go from $25K to $20K, and now Sunday, January 21, 2018, 6th race, go to $16K.
I hope I'm dead before the $5K maiden claimer comes to Santa Anita.
Edit: Seriously, I had to read the conditions 3 times to make sure I was reading it right.
Last edited by ultracapper; 01-18-2018 at 08:16 PM.
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01-18-2018, 08:31 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,033
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I remember when the lowest claiming was $12,500. So it has been cut in half. Can't wait till it gets cut in half again. That is like Thursday, 5 mdn races out of 8 races. It is a waste of my time to even a form on those days.
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01-18-2018, 08:50 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Been handicapping SoCal for about 17 years now. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses go from $10K to $8K, and then to $6,250. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses on the turf go from $40k to $25K. I've seen the lowest maiden claiming price for older horses go from $25K to $20K, and now Sunday, January 21, 2018, 6th race, go to $16K.
I hope I'm dead before the $5K maiden claimer comes to Santa Anita.
Edit: Seriously, I had to read the conditions 3 times to make sure I was reading it right.
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its a good time to switch to OP-much better product w/bigger fields
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01-18-2018, 10:35 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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I wonder if we are now going to see the "LosAlamitoization" of Santa Anita over the next several years where the majority of the racehorse ownership undergoes an "identity transformation"...?
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01-19-2018, 08:27 AM
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#5
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
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Those $5K maiden claimers are running there now .....for $16K.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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01-19-2018, 09:07 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,956
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Ritvo comments on SA
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01-19-2018, 11:37 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Those $5K maiden claimers are running there now .....for $16K.
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The truth to this statement is scary.
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01-19-2018, 11:48 AM
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#8
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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They have so few horses they can't afford to lose the bad ones to GG, TuP, and wherever else they might look for a win.
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01-19-2018, 11:49 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Handle may be up do to a really good cards and a bunch of cancellations but this weeks cards are abysmal.
I may try some Sat but Fri and Sun are so bad I didnt even bother downloading the PP.
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01-19-2018, 12:04 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upthecreek
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Ritvo gets it. Field size is everything. It's coincidental that I'm doing a study on my 2017 bets and race conditions that I handicap. I'll share it when I'm done. But preliminary results show field size trumps quality when generating handle and ultimate win/place prices. That's probably not a surprise to anybody, but I think the results of what I'm looking at will show a pronounced appreciation for larger fields. Another thing that is coming to light is reduced racing days, with more races on those days. The 3 day race weeks Santa Anita had last year, with the 10 and 11 race cards, blew away the 8 race, Thursday-Sunday schedule in relation to win prices, per-race handle and on-track per gambler handle. A number of those 8 race cards saw handle as low as $80 per attendant. Some of those 11 race cards were as high as $300 per on-track patron. Los Al, even with it's quality/size of fields, which are both comparatively poor, had Santa Anita-like on-track per-patron betting numbers on days with 2 or 3 additional races. On week days, there are usually less than 1000 on site at Los Al, but they are there to bet, as they had days of over $400 bet per patron on-track. When the weekend came and they would add a race or 2, the attendance would go up, which is a sign of the more casual gambler attending, but the handle would still be nearly $300 per person on-track, right in line with a 10 race card at Santa Anita. DelMar can't compete with either on a per-patron basis, as a lot of DelMar's attendants are there for the experience rather than to hard-core gamble. Still, DelMar is regularly over $100 per head.
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01-19-2018, 12:07 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Ritvo gets it. Field size is everything. It's coincidental that I'm doing a study on my 2017 bets and race conditions that I handicap. I'll share it when I'm done. But preliminary results show field size trumps quality when generating handle and ultimate win/place prices. That's probably not a surprise to anybody, but I think the results of what I'm looking at will show a pronounced appreciation for larger fields. Another thing that is coming to light is reduced racing days, with more races on those days. The 3 day race weeks Santa Anita had last year, with the 10 and 11 race cards, blew away the 8 race, Thursday-Sunday schedule in relation to win prices, per-race handle and on-track per gambler handle. A number of those 8 race cards saw handle as low as $80 per attendant. Some of those 11 race cards were as high as $300 per on-track patron. Los Al, even with it's quality/size of fields, which are both comparatively poor, had Santa Anita-like on-track per-patron betting numbers on days with 2 or 3 additional races. On week days, there are usually less than 1000 on site at Los Al, but they are there to bet, as they had days of over $400 bet per patron on-track. When the weekend came and they would add a race or 2, the attendance would go up, which is a sign of the more casual gambler attending, but the handle would still be nearly $300 per person on-track, right in line with a 10 race card at Santa Anita. DelMar can't compete with either on a per-patron basis, as a lot of DelMar's attendants are there for the experience rather than to hard-core gamble. Still, DelMar is regularly over $100 per head.
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If I am going to bet cheaper races I would likely take my money somewhere else other then SA, would imagine it would be easier to find inefficiencies elsewhere.
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01-19-2018, 12:27 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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I think you'll be surprised. Casual gamblers are attracted to the marquis meets. They are the ones that bet the less informed money. DelMar is a literal gold mine if you're betting on horses. When Santa Anita fills the fields and offers an extended card, it allows the more casual player the opportunity to "make a day of it", and it shows in the win prices.
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01-19-2018, 12:53 PM
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#13
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Ritvo gets it. Field size is everything.
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Field size is important, but it certainly isn't everything for bettors. If it was EvD and DeD would be the kings of racing I'd guess. There is a balance between field size and quality.
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01-19-2018, 01:06 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Agree. It has to be admitted that quality cards, with a marquis race, or a menu of multiple stake races, are very attractive to the general betting public. Even if those particular races aren't overly competitive.
Nothing beats a popular horse and/or race.
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01-19-2018, 01:21 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,033
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If I am going to bet cheap races it will not be at SA. There are plenty of cheap tracks around.
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