Solids Picks? Tweak your Wagering... - Page 5 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Dave Schwartz · 01-10-2018, 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802

I find this very interesting. It is easy to do quickly. If you are only playing 1 horse in the race, is there a minimum % that tells you to play or not to play?

Jay,

It needs to be calibrated, but for me it is a 30% bet.

The formula is:

TotalRaceBet = $100 x NotBet% x NotCont%

When I am betting ALL the contenders, the formula is:
TotalRaceBet = $100 x NotBet%

Thus, in a race with 3 contenders, where you are betting all 3, and they comprise 60% of the pool you would have a $40 bet (actually 40 units).

If you are playing a single horse, make sure that you are still picking contenders, otherwise you will simply bet more money on the longshots and less on the favorites. Some people will like that idea until they are singling a 30/1 horse and the system wants to bet 90+ units.

Dave

jay68802 · 01-10-2018, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Jay,

It needs to be calibrated, but for me it is a 30% bet.

The formula is:

TotalRaceBet = $100 x NotBet% x NotCont%

When I am betting ALL the contenders, the formula is:
TotalRaceBet = $100 x NotBet%

Thus, in a race with 3 contenders, where you are betting all 3, and they comprise 60% of the pool you would have a $40 bet (actually 40 units).

If you are playing a single horse, make sure that you are still picking contenders, otherwise you will simply bet more money on the longshots and less on the favorites. Some people will like that idea until they are singling a 30/1 horse and the system wants to bet 90+ units.

Dave

Thanks

I did a quick excell sheet so i can just cut and paste and get the %. Will follow it for a while and see what happens. As they say, I'm a old dog, and this is a new trick.

ultracapper · 01-10-2018, 01:51 AM

I started playing in 1982. My first winning year was 2008. In 2008, I made about $31,000 in bets, and cashed roughly $34,000 in winners. By this time, I was betting as I do today, W/P. In 2008, there was a 3 week period where it really came together as I always had envisioned it. I made about $7,000 in bets in that 3 week span, and cashed about $19,000 of winning tickets. That was 3 of 52 weeks. Don't know if there is any lesson there, but that was my first winning year, the 26th year of action, and it all was just a 3 week period of clarity.

But the confidence I built with that experience. It was a major leap in many, many ways.

CincyHorseplayer · 01-10-2018, 07:06 AM

I never cease to be amazed at my own arrogance. I've always been a good handicapper but not a great bettor. But these days the simplest tweaks in both handicapping and betting make the most difference. In regards to betting I have always looked at probable payoffs but never just made a payoff grid and calculated even payouts to get say a 6-1 return. That in and of itself is not earth shattering but the realization that you could have 4-6 outcomes in a race to get that return as opposed to a single outcome of a 6-1 winner that can be hit or miss and that this can be done on horses whose win odds are often substantially less is huge. And many times this can be done finishing 2nd also to top contenders. Looking at exacta payouts give an indication of probables for tris and supers as do doubles for p3 and p4 bets. I am not a huge bettor but playing in this manner without having a bigger bank for coverage I've tended to stick to exacta, doubles, and P3's. Having a bigger denomination on those bets pays more than lesser denominations on the other bets in my experience. Plus having higher denominations period within your bet structure leads to better overall payoffs. This is all basic stuff. I too often took it for granted. Betting similar amounts to the opening poster daily my ROI on these plays has been 2.39 for every 1.00 wagered since the winter meets began. But more importantly the amount of money I have made has doubled compared to last year at this time when I was win centric and basic double key/same denomination type player. And overall at this point compared to last year I had more wins and a higher average mutuel.

I guess the point that was drilled into my head rereading some books in late fall was simply making money on most likely outcomes than being focused on 1 or 2 outcomes. Cover the outcomes for an even but high enough return or no play. Add to that taking away the burden of being the smartest handicapper on earth and a higher actual profit return overall I am amazed. The subtlest of tweaks has really opened my eyes. Amazed at how stupid I am for ignoring some very basic work!

Enigma · 01-10-2018, 10:57 AM

Clarification:
I started this approach August 1st 2017. My intention was to quit if and when I lost my $6,000 Bankroll. At this stage of the procedure to be on target I should have winnings of approximately $17,000 I'm not even close, however I am a winning player with a nicely improved. Bankroll.

Answers:
I do not chase my losses. Each and every day I risk $600 to obtain $110.
Today I have 7 Selections 2 are M/L Fav. 3 are Top Average Earnings. 2 are Lowest Days Off.

lamboguy · 01-10-2018, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enigma

Clarification:
I started this approach August 1st 2017. My intention was to quit if and when I lost my $6,000 Bankroll. At this stage of the procedure to be on target I should have winnings of approximately $17,000 I'm not even close, however I am a winning player with a nicely improved. Bankroll.

Answers:
I do not chase my losses. Each and every day I risk $600 to obtain $110.
Today I have 7 Selections 2 are M/L Fav. 3 are Top Average Earnings. 2 are Lowest Days Off.

the part that i don't understand is that if you have an edge, how could you possibly know that it wasn't going to work for you after you have won your "days pay"?

the way i have always gambled was when i thought i had the best of it, i tried to get down for as much as i could without effecting the odds.-

jay68802 · 01-10-2018, 01:33 PM

One thing to say is I have enjoyed all the different ways people have gone about wagering. Everyone has their own way, and proves that there is different ways to go about this. I learned some new things and am going to test run a few of them. As always the test run is done on paper and not live. Today at Gulfstream I liked a horse in the 2nd. Following my own ways I noticed two things, the horse in the 2nd was going to be low in the odds (6-5), but the double will pay from the horse I liked in the first was 13-1. Who wants 6-5, and who wants 13-1? Needless to say at 13-1 I have a nice profit showing already and might stop playing for the day. Or maybe not, but I might, or.....

jay68802 · 01-10-2018, 01:40 PM

And to Dave,

I used your formula in the second and it showed that i should be wagering $100 on the selection, but the odds of 6-5 were to low for me to make the wager. at 5-2 the wager would have been placed. I think the key here is going to be how many non-contenders I can come up with. And that has always been a weak point of my handicapping. I consider myself a "forgiving" type of handicapper, so the journey begins.

oughtoh · 01-10-2018, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802

One thing to say is I have enjoyed all the different ways people have gone about wagering. Everyone has their own way, and proves that there is different ways to go about this. I learned some new things and am going to test run a few of them. As always the test run is done on paper and not live. Today at Gulfstream I liked a horse in the 2nd. Following my own ways I noticed two things, the horse in the 2nd was going to be low in the odds (6-5), but the double will pay from the horse I liked in the first was 13-1. Who wants 6-5, and who wants 13-1? Needless to say at 13-1 I have a nice profit showing already and might stop playing for the day. Or maybe not, but I might, or.....

That is where I use to just bet the double instead of just betting the horse in the first race and the second horse would lose. I have learn to at least have something on the horse in the first race. bLoss to many times before I learned my lesson.

jay68802 · 01-10-2018, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oughtoh

That is where I use to just bet the double instead of just betting the horse in the first race and the second horse would lose. I have learn to at least have something on the horse in the first race. bLoss to many times before I learned my lesson.

Been there, done that, it can be a aggravating game once in a while.

Robert Fischer · 01-10-2018, 02:38 PM

Worth mentioning, is the amount of value that depends on the favorite(s).

Your ticket structure and wagering should reflect your opinion of the favorite(s) in some way.

Maybe you 'pass' the race, or 'single' a true favorite? Maybe you look to bet, or 'spread' in a race with a false favorite?

Enigma · 01-10-2018, 03:14 PM

Early finish to the day:
1st Gulfstream #7 Miss Stalward
Top win %
2nd best Average earnings
Lowest days off.

2nd paying $8.00.

Profit $250

oughtoh · 01-10-2018, 03:18 PM

Do you give each category a number. So for that race he would have had top number for 2 categories and second for the other.

Enigma · 01-10-2018, 03:58 PM

ENTIRELY !!!

VigorsTheGrey · 01-10-2018, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enigma

Early finish to the day:
1st Gulfstream #7 Miss Stalward
Top win %
2nd best Average earnings
Lowest days off.

2nd paying $8.00.

Profit $250

Nice...! Thanks for the clarifications...really helps out to hear from others how they are really betting. I know this is tough for some of us to do. We naturally don't want to give away what is working for fear that others may do the same and somehow depress our odds...I cannot tell if those kind of feelings are rational or not...but I thank you for your courage and willingness to do so and share your ideas...there are many others here at PA that have done the same, thanks again to all of you...

For me, I can tell you from the start that my betting behavior is highly irrational. I'm all across the board...one race, I'll bet win/ place...another, dime supers...others p3 and p4's...

Most days I'll start with my $300 bankroll, get up quickly, bet virtually every race I can playing it all back and with it most of my bankroll...its embarrassing to tell all you guys but I'm sure everyone here has at one time or another been where I am and DONE THAT...

...All I can say is that the Track must absolutely love guys like me...a professional CHURNER like me adds many thousands of dollars in take-out to their bottom line...sometimes I feel like I am working for the track whether I lose or win...

But since I have been thinking about target profit goals, ROI, and how much money I need to push through the windows to makes this work, has got me thinking...I suspect there is a NEGATIVE CORRELATION working here....say one sets a profit goal of $10,000 for the year (a modest, albeit realistic goal, since the majority of horse players are losing players year-wise)

....that the lower your ROI, the more money you'll need to push to obtain your target goal, and that is the NEGATIVE CORRELATION....

Now from what I gather successful players have rather low ROI's, (1.02 to 1.07) move massive amounts of funds, and are involved with REBATES (which provide the necessary edge to make it all work)...This level of play is simply out of reach for me as well as most other people....so I really appreciate hearing how much others are wagering in order to win how much back, etc...