Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc

[CheckMark]

Have you had any Easy money plays either today or so far at the meet at Oaklawn?

Looks like a nice little spot play angle the last time you posted it

[NorCalGreg]

A while back I mentioned a spot play that was tearing it up @ GPX. So decided to meticulously check it-day by day, for the previous day's results. Have to be sure and remove scratched entries first--if not you won't get accurate results afterwards.

My standard win bet is $20.00--reason being if my horse wins and pays $9.80, I instantly know I got $98.00 coming back (see? I told you I was lazy!) I even had Steve make me an ROI Calculator, but by then I had gotten accustomed to $20 wagers. So I kept my win bets the same, anyway.

Here is that very calculator showing the Dec results for the spot play @ GPX:

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Have you had any Easy money plays either today or so far at the meet at Oaklawn?

Looks like a nice little spot play angle the last time you posted it

Wow...as I was posting this you simultaneously asked about it. Coincidence?

Here are the results for every play in Dec @ GPX:

PONYPICKERS "EASY WINNERS" SPOT PLAY

12-03
1ST CASHIER CHECK $10.20
2ND ADVENTURE SEEKER $7.80
4TH FULL OD ATTITUDE $6.40
6TH LIS MARINA $7.60
7TH DAY'S HUMOR $10.80
10TH RED DANGER $3.80
12-04
5TH KALU 2ND
6TH SUGAR FIX $8.40
10TH GIRALAMO'S ATTACK XXX
11TH MAX K.O. XXX
12-05
2ND NO COMMISION XXX
4TH POIEMA $20.20
9TH MISS AURAMET $4.60
11TH FISHING FOR FUN 3RD
12-08
1ST BYE BYE DAVID XXX
2ND LIFE IN SHAMBLES 2ND
8TH STRIKE THE TOP $8.60
12-09
8TH QUEEN MACHA 3RD
9TH DIVINE LEADER 3RD
12-10
1ST SPLICER XXX
3RD MY PRANKSTER $2.20
6TH CASCADE PARK $3.80
7TH DRAIN TYHE CLOCK $2.80
12-11
3RD COMMISSIO $5.60
4TH POSITIVE REVIEW 3RD
7TH LOGICO 3RD
8TH AWESOME ANNAMARIA XXX
12-12
5TH UPTOWN QUEEN XXX
6TH PETER D $3.00
10TH CLASSIC FILM 2ND
12-15
3RD FAST AS FLIGHT 2ND
4TH BABY LION $4.80
7TH HERCULES XXX
12-16
2ND WHISKEYONHISLIPS $3.40
4TH HEY HOMBRE 2ND
5TH ASTROTURF 2ND
9TH AMERICAN OF COURSE 3RD
12-17
2ND SMILING TEUFLES $14.20
3RD PATRICK'S LASS 2ND
6TH MEETMEINKINGSTON $3.20

[NorCalGreg]

Yes, I do realize day 1 of the results was the biggest day of the month...but delete that day and you STILL have a winner. That is all the data I have for GPX.

*If you would like a free copy of the calculator--send me an email
with "calculator" in the subject line

-NCG

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Wow...as I was posting this you simultaneously asked about it. Coincidence?

Kinda funny we thought the same thing about Easy Winners

Looking good so far for GPX

What about other tracks?

[NorCalGreg]

MAIDEN 2ND TIME START

AQ
1ST MAIN EVENT 10-1
3RD RVINDICATED 8-1
5TH BOSSHIP 15-1

GPX
2ND KEEN KINGDOM 15-1

MVR
5TH BRICK OF HEARTS 6-1
8TH TITEBLUEJEANS 5-1

[NorCalGreg]

These are the EASY MONEY plays for OPX...these haven't been researched at OPX yet. I'm a little suspicious at the number of plays and the ML's--but we'll see what happens:

EASY MONEY

OPX
1ST LORD DRAGON 6-1
2ND ROLL DINERO ROLL 7/2
5TH THE ROCK SAYS 4-1
6TH HOME RUN TRICK 5-1
7TH RUNAWAY WIFE 5-1

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

These are the EASY MONEY plays for OPX...these haven't been researched at OPX yet. I'm a little suspicious at the number of plays and the ML's--but we'll see what happens:

EASY MONEY

OPX
1ST LORD DRAGON 6-1
2ND ROLL DINERO ROLL 7/2
5TH THE ROCK SAYS 4-1
6TH HOME RUN TRICK 5-1
7TH RUNAWAY WIFE 5-1

Ok thank you Mr Greg!

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

These are the EASY MONEY plays for OPX...these haven't been researched at OPX yet. I'm a little suspicious at the number of plays and the ML's--but we'll see what happens:

EASY MONEY

OPX
1ST LORD DRAGON 6-1

I keep suggesting through various means of communication that the Oaklawn morning line maker ensure that the top BRISnet Prime Power rating at least be included somewhere in the top 3 in the morning line, else they look uninformed.

Is BRISnet Prime Power perfect - no. But it does provide a nice approximation of where the money will likely flow.

Lord Dragon was top BRISnet Prime Power, but co-fourth choice on the morning line - and went off at 4-5!

You are right to be suspicious of Oaklawn morning lines.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

I keep suggesting through various means of communication that the Oaklawn morning line maker ensure that the top BRISnet Prime Power rating at least be included somewhere in the top 3 in the morning line, else they look uninformed.

Is BRISnet Prime Power perfect - no. But it does provide a nice approximation of where the money will likely flow.

Lord Dragon was top BRISnet Prime Power, but co-fourth choice on the morning line - and went off at 4-5!

You are right to be suspicious of Oaklawn morning lines.

Has anyone done any thorough research on the accuracy of the Brisnet Prime Power rating in predicting the money flow in a race?

[green80]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Have you had any Easy money plays either today or so far at the meet at Oaklawn?

Looks like a nice little spot play angle the last time you posted it

Oaklawn shows a slight loss for all Easy Money plays for the meet.

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Has anyone done any thorough research on the accuracy of the Brisnet Prime Power rating in predicting the money flow in a race?

I have done a big study on this, but it definitely differs from track to track and race type. Just a while ago in the 9th race at Tampa. The #2 was the top Prime Power with a ML of 9/5, but went off at 5-1 with the 3rd PP horse going off as the 2-1 favorite finishing 3rd with the #2 winning and paying $12.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

I have done a big study on this, but it definitely differs from track to track and race type. Just a while ago in the 9th race at Tampa. The #2 was the top Prime Power with a ML of 9/5, but went off at 5-1 with the 3rd PP horse going off as the 2-1 favorite finishing 3rd with the #2 winning and paying $12.

The BRIS Prime Power rating is a curiosity to me. Sometimes it points to a winner who is overlooked in the betting...but at other times it will assign the 8th-best rating to a short-priced winner who looks the part on paper. There are some factors in that rating that I find very confusing.

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

These are the EASY MONEY plays for OPX...these haven't been researched at OPX yet. I'm a little suspicious at the number of plays and the ML's--but we'll see what happens:

EASY MONEY

OPX
1ST LORD DRAGON 6-1
2ND ROLL DINERO ROLL 7/2
5TH THE ROCK SAYS 4-1
6TH HOME RUN TRICK 5-1
7TH RUNAWAY WIFE 5-1

WOW!! Followed along with Speed Demons today for Gulfstream Park (12-18) and at least in the TOP 3 selections if you simply looked at the Trainer Spot plays and clicked on all of the ratings provided for each horse on the underneath tabs you would have come up with the winner in each race on the card within the TOP 3 selections of the program. In race #11 clearly the top two horses on paper were the #9 and #5, however, if you were looking for a third play of better value the #2 was darned close to the two of them in terms of the Demon Power Rating. This would signal to me that he could be an improving horse. It came in #2 and #9, with the #2 paying $18 and change. This capped off a late 50c Pic 5 for $3,272.00. Nobody hit the P6 which would have been approximately 350k if I remember correctly. "Very Good stuff Greg"!!!

[NorCalGreg]

Sweet...way to work it Vinnie Ever since the question came up about Prime Power, I've been looking at it from different angles. Will report any findings a lil later.

Take a look at the following and fill me in, please--anyone: