Risen Star 2013

[Valuist]

My odds:

Normandy Invasion 2-1
Code West 5-1
Palace Malice 6-1
Mylute 8-1
Departing 10-1
Oxbow 12-1
Proud Strike 15-1
Golden Soul 15-1
Circle Unbroken 20-1
Hes Had Enough 20-1
Hardrock Eleven 25-1
Agent 30-1
Bethel 30-1
I've Struck a Nerve 50-1

[Robert Fischer]

They've got Palace Malice @ 8-1 ml.



I can't see that, unless the public greatly underrates him and bets down Normandy Invasion to 7/5.


I would still personally want about 9/2 on Palace Malice(given that Normandy Invasion is in the race) but he looks like about a 7/2 shot.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

They've got Palace Malice @ 8-1 ml.



I can't see that, unless the public greatly underrates him and bets down Normandy Invasion to 7/5.


I would still personally want about 9/2 on Palace Malice(given that Normandy Invasion is in the race) but he looks like about a 7/2 shot.

With a full field, its tough to have the 2nd choice at 7-2 here with Normandy Invasion in the race. IMO, he's "only" 2-1 because of the uncertainty of the layoff, and the uncertainty of how much he's moved forward at 3. That last race of his was sensational. Arguably the best of any 2 YO last year, even in a losing effort.

No doubt this is a stronger field than the Fountain of Youth.

[overthehill]

what was so sensational about his race? he lost. on top of that there is 2/3 chance for rains so the track will probably off. i doubt that will favor a closer. I suspect that assmussen who knows his way around a horse. would not have entered his maiden step up and gotten stevens to ride if he werent a lot better than he looks on paper. and ox bow could be very dangerous. I dont like normandy at all in here. especially not at 2-1. I would have to be convinced that he is legit.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by overthehill

what was so sensational about his race? he lost. on top of that there is 2/3 chance for rains so the track will probably off. i doubt that will favor a closer. I suspect that assmussen who knows his way around a horse. would not have entered his maiden step up and gotten stevens to ride if he werent a lot better than he looks on paper. and ox bow could be very dangerous. I dont like normandy at all in here. especially not at 2-1. I would have to be convinced that he is legit.

What was sensational about it? For a start, we can make a direct comparison to the Demoiselle, the 2 year old filly equivalent to the Remsen, run the race before. The Remsen was only about 1/2 second faster to the 6f mark, but over 2 full seconds faster to the final time of the Demoiselle. So the race played to the advantage of those near the pace, and Overanalyze and Delhomme stayed on to run 1st and 3rd, while Invasion took the worst of it, closing on the slow pace to narrowly miss. And how about the 17 length gap to 4th? The only times you see gaps that big are in slop races that come off the turf, maiden claiming races or a 4 or 5 horse field. You don't see them in 10 horse field Grade 2. That was a better performance than anything Shanghai Bobby did.

Is he ready? Nobody knows, but I think 2-1 prices in that uncertainty. Its very possible he could be 6-5 (assuming a dry track). Of course if its sloppy everything changes.

[overthehill]

I have a different take on the race, which is ok. if the pace was slow as you intimate then why did the other horses finish so far away as you correctly stated. usually that happens when the pace is fast and the other horses get run of their feet except for the stone closer who comes up and picks up the pieces and usually runs down the tired pace setters. yet not in this case. also overanalyze is probably not amongst pletcher 5 best triple crown prospects.
My plan for what its worth its that normandy will be taking the worst of it and will probably box three horses in exactas and leave normandy out ( assuming the track is off) but good luck.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by overthehill

I have a different take on the race, which is ok. if the pace was slow as you intimate then why did the other horses finish so far away as you correctly stated. usually that happens when the pace is fast and the other horses get run of their feet except for the stone closer who comes up and picks up the pieces and usually runs down the tired pace setters. yet not in this case. also overanalyze is probably not amongst pletcher 5 best triple crown prospects.
My plan for what its worth its that normandy will be taking the worst of it and will probably box three horses in exactas and leave normandy out ( assuming the track is off) but good luck.

I have no problem with somebody taking a stand against him. I think Invasion either wins, or is off the board. I can't see him running third here. We've seen many good 2 year olds who for some reason or another, don't move forward, or regress at 3. But in the hands of Chad Brown, I don't think that will be the case.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Valuist

My odds:
Code West 5-1
Palace Malice 6-1

Code West is an interesting horse.

I could see him becoming a little bit of a wise-guy horse because of the figure he ran behind Super Ninety Nine last out.

While I like Palace Malice better, Code West should be the other quality horse near the pace. If you cover or play multiple tickets based on scenarios, there are several scenarios where Code West will benefit.

[Striker]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Code West is an interesting horse.

I could see him becoming a little bit of a wise-guy horse because of the figure he ran behind Super Ninety Nine last out.

While I like Palace Malice better, Code West should be the other quality horse near the pace. If you cover or play multiple tickets based on scenarios, there are several scenarios where Code West will benefit.

Watching the replays of his races, he seems very one-paced to me. Maybe the blinkers off will help him.

[Valuist]

Marcus Hersh of the DRF reporting that heavy rains hit the FG area between 3 and 5 am this morning.

[Valuist]

Races 1,3 and 5 at the FG have all been moved to the main track. No surprise there.

Turf soft for the FG Handicap.

Two Months Rent becomes much more interesting on a soft course. He won the Hawthorne Derby over an absolute bog.

[Bennie]

Just my take on the Risen Star. Off/wet track may see a defection or two from the outside horses, rumors say. I personally am looking forward to Code West running without blinkers as his 1st race, albeit slow on the Beyers, saw him come off the pace 4 wide and rallying. Since the blinks went on, he has attended the pace and been, as mentioned here, sort of one paced. I took Code West in the first Futures pool at 50-1 or so and although a win is not needed at this point, would like to see him move forward and maybe sit off the pace and make a late run as shown in his 1st race. Is bred to run all day and wet track will not hurt. Also, interested to see how Proud Strike runs today, as he is one horse I would have taken in Pool #1 if he was listed. Odds will determine if I make a wager today as at this point in time I am more interested to see how these horses perform and if they will be moving forward. As far as Normandy Invasion, he can win today and has breeding to handle as off track but with long layoff, is he coming fully cranked? Will he get caught behind tiring horses? At short odds, I will pass and wait for another day.

[Valuist]

Main track listed as fast.

[Robert Fischer]

small WPS on if > 5-1

[elysiantraveller]

Two logical horses and the Baffert horse is intriguing to me with the ship and blinkers off.