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Old 04-04-2013, 01:48 PM   #1
PhantomOnTour
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$50,000 Preakness Bet

An ADW company is having a contest where the winner will receive a 50k betting voucher to place a win bet on one horse in the Preakness.

What do you think about this?
If this person picks the winner (and the Preakness is a pretty formful race) the odds will be sunk.

I don't have a clue how much the biggest of the big whales bets to win, but i'm guessing it ain't 50k - ofcourse, other runners will be overlaid.

Math guys....
How much of a move in odds would a 50k bet cause in a win pool as big as the Preakness?
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:51 PM   #2
lamboguy
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if it was me i would bet the money before the horses walk onto the track. in today's world you have conditional wagering and tote analysis, so with a big pool that the Preakness will have you can bet that type of money have no effect on what the eventual odds turn out to be.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:58 PM   #3
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19 million WPS last year

majority to win/ place i believe

It shouldn't be a big deal.

If it's on the obvious formful horse, then as Lamboguy implied - the whales will just bet 50K less.

You also won't get a lot of long-term value on the obvious formful horse anyway.

no worries
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Old 04-04-2013, 02:00 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
19 million WPS last year

majority to win/ place i believe
19 million !?
holy hell...nevermind
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Old 04-04-2013, 02:04 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
19 million !?
holy hell...nevermind


Wish we always had pools like this.


Hong Kong supposedly averages over 10 million/race.
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Old 04-04-2013, 03:09 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
19 million WPS last year
I saw a slightly higher number in the DRF chart ($20.1 million) but it similarly shows how little a $50K bet is going to move things; $80.4 million total handle on the 2012 race.
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Old 04-04-2013, 03:24 PM   #7
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Charts on equibase for Preakness WPS pools--

2012--$20.1
2011--$19.6
2010--$20.1
2009--$23
2008--$14.3
2007--$20.3
2006--$21.1
2005--$22.7
2004--$21.8
2003--$14.7
2002--$17.1
2001--$14.7
2000--$9.5
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Old 04-04-2013, 04:32 PM   #8
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If you happen to win this contest and then bet on a horse that doesn't win, do you still owe taxes on the $50,000?

Since it's an award based on a random draw and not a gambling win, it doesn't seem like you could write off the $50,000 gambling loss against what appears to be a sweepstakes prize.

Any CPA's out there?
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Old 04-05-2013, 12:54 PM   #9
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$50,000 Preakness Bet

Not a CPA, but used to be a tax auditor. In any case, this is just my OPINION:

The "winning" of the $50,000 bet is NOT a taxable event. It only becomes a taxable event when actual cash or a tangible "prize" is awarded. In other words, if the guy bets the $50k on the 2-1 fave and he collects, then he owes taxes on $150,000. If his choice loses, he has no tax liability. Also, I think your surmising that he would not be able to offset the $150,000 with other gambling losses is correct.

CPA's or IRS wonks? NJ Stinks?
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Old 04-05-2013, 02:40 PM   #10
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I would guess it is not taxable because no cash changes hand and the winner has no choice but to take a ticket.

But then, when did the tax law ever make sense!
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Old 04-05-2013, 02:43 PM   #11
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$50,000 Preakness Bet

For once, I agree 100% with Tom. One (or both) of us is in serious trouble!

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Old 04-05-2013, 02:49 PM   #12
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I remember a triple crown race in the past with a 'big bet' winner.

My memory is foggy. but I thought it was 100K in Kentucky Derby for a sweepstakes winner from Churchill downs - a few years ago I saw this on a national television feed.
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Old 04-05-2013, 03:16 PM   #13
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When that Glen Fullerton fella hit it on Super Saver, I remember this conversation going on somewhere. I tend to think it was either right here or maybe at the DMFF - which leads me to believe that maybe AndyC had a convincing explanation. I tried to search and got too aggravated with the irrelevant returns to my lousy search terms.

There were a number of theories floated - from even if they taxed the $100k as winnings, he could then schedule A it all off as losses if he had lost, and write it off against winnings if he had won (two separate events) - to comparisons to final Jeopardy and having $20,000 in contest winnings going in and wagering $10,000 on the last round and answering incorrectly, but still winning the game for $10,000 - it would be considered one event, not two...

Wish I could remember where the debate(s) ensued (may have been a few places that my memory has compiled into one), because it was pretty entertaining and had a convincing resolution.
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