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04-04-2013, 01:48 PM
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#1
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
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$50,000 Preakness Bet
An ADW company is having a contest where the winner will receive a 50k betting voucher to place a win bet on one horse in the Preakness.
What do you think about this?
If this person picks the winner (and the Preakness is a pretty formful race) the odds will be sunk.
I don't have a clue how much the biggest of the big whales bets to win, but i'm guessing it ain't 50k - ofcourse, other runners will be overlaid.
Math guys....
How much of a move in odds would a 50k bet cause in a win pool as big as the Preakness?
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How do I work this?
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04-04-2013, 01:51 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,653
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if it was me i would bet the money before the horses walk onto the track. in today's world you have conditional wagering and tote analysis, so with a big pool that the Preakness will have you can bet that type of money have no effect on what the eventual odds turn out to be.
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04-04-2013, 01:58 PM
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#3
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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19 million WPS last year
majority to win/ place i believe
It shouldn't be a big deal.
If it's on the obvious formful horse, then as Lamboguy implied - the whales will just bet 50K less.
You also won't get a lot of long-term value on the obvious formful horse anyway.
no worries
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-04-2013, 02:00 PM
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#4
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
19 million WPS last year
majority to win/ place i believe
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19 million !?
holy hell...nevermind
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How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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04-04-2013, 02:04 PM
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#5
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
19 million !?
holy hell...nevermind
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Wish we always had pools like this.
Hong Kong supposedly averages over 10 million/race.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-04-2013, 03:09 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 969
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
19 million WPS last year
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I saw a slightly higher number in the DRF chart ($20.1 million) but it similarly shows how little a $50K bet is going to move things; $80.4 million total handle on the 2012 race.
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04-04-2013, 03:24 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,987
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Charts on equibase for Preakness WPS pools--
2012--$20.1
2011--$19.6
2010--$20.1
2009--$23
2008--$14.3
2007--$20.3
2006--$21.1
2005--$22.7
2004--$21.8
2003--$14.7
2002--$17.1
2001--$14.7
2000--$9.5
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04-04-2013, 04:32 PM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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If you happen to win this contest and then bet on a horse that doesn't win, do you still owe taxes on the $50,000?
Since it's an award based on a random draw and not a gambling win, it doesn't seem like you could write off the $50,000 gambling loss against what appears to be a sweepstakes prize.
Any CPA's out there?
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04-05-2013, 12:54 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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$50,000 Preakness Bet
Not a CPA, but used to be a tax auditor. In any case, this is just my OPINION:
The "winning" of the $50,000 bet is NOT a taxable event. It only becomes a taxable event when actual cash or a tangible "prize" is awarded. In other words, if the guy bets the $50k on the 2-1 fave and he collects, then he owes taxes on $150,000. If his choice loses, he has no tax liability. Also, I think your surmising that he would not be able to offset the $150,000 with other gambling losses is correct.
CPA's or IRS wonks? NJ Stinks?
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04-05-2013, 02:40 PM
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#10
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
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I would guess it is not taxable because no cash changes hand and the winner has no choice but to take a ticket.
But then, when did the tax law ever make sense!
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-05-2013, 02:43 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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$50,000 Preakness Bet
For once, I agree 100% with Tom. One (or both) of us is in serious trouble!
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04-05-2013, 02:49 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,451
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I remember a triple crown race in the past with a 'big bet' winner.
My memory is foggy. but I thought it was 100K in Kentucky Derby for a sweepstakes winner from Churchill downs - a few years ago I saw this on a national television feed.
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04-05-2013, 03:16 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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When that Glen Fullerton fella hit it on Super Saver, I remember this conversation going on somewhere. I tend to think it was either right here or maybe at the DMFF - which leads me to believe that maybe AndyC had a convincing explanation. I tried to search and got too aggravated with the irrelevant returns to my lousy search terms.
There were a number of theories floated - from even if they taxed the $100k as winnings, he could then schedule A it all off as losses if he had lost, and write it off against winnings if he had won (two separate events) - to comparisons to final Jeopardy and having $20,000 in contest winnings going in and wagering $10,000 on the last round and answering incorrectly, but still winning the game for $10,000 - it would be considered one event, not two...
Wish I could remember where the debate(s) ensued (may have been a few places that my memory has compiled into one), because it was pretty entertaining and had a convincing resolution.
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