*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

All we got was $3.80? @ 8-1 ML - I had grandeurs of $4.20

[NorCalGreg]

Do you all keep meticulous records of every bet you make? Which type, how much, payoffs? You know you're supposed to, right? As long as you know that---because I let Twinspires do my bookkeeping. Don't expect XB to do it for you--they do a lousy job of it, trust me.

With TS at least you can break it down by win bets, exotics, bet amounts, tracks, etc. That's all I really need to know...I sort of fly by the seat of my pants. My bet sizes don't vary much--I have a "PRIME" bet...a "STANDARD" bet, etc....that was probably the best thing I did as a horse bettor: figure out my comfort zone . I'm not a professional--not comfortable betting large amounts of money. Also the bulk of my wagers are on longshots--that requires a relatively large bankroll, if only to maintain that comfort level.

If your betting amount, style, wagers, fluctuate with the wind--how will you ever know how you do as a gambler/horseplayer? Stick with a standard and prime bet size--or small and large--whatever you want to call them. If you're losing after some time, cut them in half. If winning--double them.

I'm not telling anyone anything they don't already know. Remember what I post up here I also post up on my website--so it's for general interest not simply my own vanity. I mentioned Twinspires handles my bookkeeping because that's the way I do things. If I could find a simple software program where I could enter wagers for spot plays--and in turn enter the results --and know the relevant information, ROI, etc-- I would do so. Havent found it yet.
Anyone know of such a program please let me know...the key word there is "simple"

So...I don't want to be crass or classless (who me?)...and post my winnings or taunt anyone...just posting something I think you'll find interesting.

I bet longshots as you know if you've read this thread much at all...and bet BEFORE the races. The interesting part is...my win % all year long has never gone under 10% or over 14%. Doesn't seem like much, does it? Like One out of Nine there abouts.
Yet, that is enough to garner a profit.

Here's the power of Exotics....I almost exclusively play exactas. With a rare trifecta or Super for the heck of it..... Early or Late Doubles & P-3's are fun bets--big surprise---no profit there.

I hit...with 3 days left in the year it's probably not going to change much....5% or One out of Twenty exactas.

There's a huge difference in ROI---amazing...If you're thinking, "just play exactas, triple all your exacta wagers and stop wasting time on those win bets".....well yeah.

Except--all of a sudden I would be out of my comfort zone. I would be LOOKING FOR EXACTAS. I would care a whole hell of a lot more every time I bet one. And lost one. And two....and three. And wouldn't have any win bets to "calm my nerves". Suddenly it doesn't seem to be so much fun anymore.

That's the difference. Took me a long time to figure that part out.

[NorCalGreg]

Everyone suddenly has pick-6 fever--sorry about the quality. Had to "gif-alize this and reduce it down to like 4 pixels to show it on one post (before scratches) my ticket if anyone cares $0.20 Pick-6:---->>>
5,6 / 1,4 / 2,3 / 2,7,11 / 2,4 / 6,8,10 Bets: 144 Total: $28.80 :

[NorCalGreg]

Had a good idea for the new software programs--both will have a button called the "HOT LIST". It's similar to the 2.5 button now, but as always--vastly improved.

The 2.5L was meant to get you likely contenders on your screen in a hurry--from the entire card. By "likely contenders" they were horses that had shown some early speed, or maintained contact with the field one of last two. All that was for was to get rid of the riff raff of the equine kingdom.

Now I went one better--HOT LIST screen gets you every horse that was less than 3 lengths back\ 1st 2 calls--T/J WIN 30%+ COMBINED--today BACK IN 30 DAYS.

You don't have to use it....but it will come in handy for claimers and lower level races--trust me on that

Was looking at a few cards so far:

TUP

4TH TRIBAL ZEN 6-1 Just looks like a likely winner to me

MVR

1ST HAT IN HAND 20-1 Dropping, stretching out for this, blinkers added--solid trainer numbers--what's not to like.

7TH V.I. DANCER 10-1 what is going on here with HOARDER? Hell I don't know what to make of this race--Did Diodoro sneak over to MVR from Turf Paradise? This race is total chaos--you got horses coming out from everywhere I'll make a small bet on 'DANCER because who knows what's going to happen--or what price he's gonna be at

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

...

[B]TUP

4TH TRIBAL ZEN 6-1 Just looks like a likely winner to me

...

I'm just about to do as we have to do here in Arizona and pick up the phone and poke a quadrillion buttons as fast as I can to get my pick five locked in with that massive TuP 30k+ carryover. And I see this. Damn you. I ran through this race forever trying to do anything to whittle it down and just could not get past the reality that it is one of those races that I probably play anything over 6-1. I just could not get a scenario where even half the field suddenly becomes hopeless. There isn't a single case where a horse is twice as likely as another to win. Thus, it winds up a fairly uncommon 'ALL' race for me; the one race in the sequence that really blew up the cost without giving me any great sense of opportunity for gutting the remaining live tickets.

And you come with a straight up win play that 'just looks like a likely winner...'

WTF do I do now?

And does it matter since I plan on singling a horse that will probably run last?

[NorCalGreg]

PRIME POWER

You know when Prime Power scores the pick-6 there weren't any longshots in there. It's okay--payoff was almost 1K

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

PRIME POWER

You know when Prime Power scores the pick-6 there weren't any longshots in there. It's okay--payoff was almost 1K

Cost of your Prime Power picks that were shown----$345.60

Net Profit: $584.50....Not bad for doing nothing but pushing a "Button"...

[Bennie]

Hindsight - just using top 2 cuts the ticket and hits.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Everyone suddenly has pick-6 fever--sorry about the quality. Had to "gif-alize this and reduce it down to like 4 pixels to show it on one post (before scratches) my ticket if anyone cares $0.20 Pick-6:---->>>
5,6 / 1,4 / 2,3 / 2,7,11 / 2,4 / 6,8,10 Bets: 144 Total: $28.80 :

This was my $28.80 ticket from the BUCKEYE PICK-6 @ MVR. The only horse I left off? The most blatant--obvious horse on the card--HOARDER

Who takes a horse that just won a race for a $20K purse 30 days ago---drops him down to an $8k purse for the hell of it...the jockey from that race bails for another horse today---WHO DOES THAT? Comes from dead last in a 6F sprint and wins for fun?
Hoarder was claimed by Crumley Racing Stable LLC; trainer, Crumley Jevon.

LOL....I was positive the horse would either be scratched or just. not. win.

I believe I earned the embarrassing "83" stoopid bettor award:

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

PRIME POWER

You know when Prime Power scores the pick-6 there weren't any longshots in there. It's okay--payoff was almost 1K

forget Prime Power you can do way better!!! how about when you have 10-12 Horses and 9 have PP's within 2 points???!!!
and it's useless against Maidens.


I know you disagree but for races below 6f I really like high 2f par last race out to be really effective. totally ignoring PP.


routes: use energy expended late and early speed points to eliminate Horses
I throw out ones who have low energy expended numbers and low early speed points(<5). 5 EP or above i ignore works flawlessly ON ROUTES.

example GP 12-29
sprints
R2 will play 9. underneath 5 maybe
R9 5
R10 5,12 with FTS 1,8

non-maiden routes
r5 low energy on 2,5
r6-8 too close to toss

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

This was my $28.80 ticket from the BUCKEYE PICK-6 @ MVR. The only horse I left off? The most blatant--obvious horse on the card--HOARDER

Who takes a horse that just won a race for a $20K purse 30 days ago---drops him down to an $8k purse for the hell of it...the jockey from that race bails for another horse today---WHO DOES THAT? Comes from dead last in a 6F sprint and wins for fun?
Hoarder was claimed by Crumley Racing Stable LLC; trainer, Crumley Jevon.

LOL....I was positive the horse would either be scratched or just. not. win.

I believe I earned the embarrassing "83" stoopid bettor award:

just curious Hoarder ML 3-1 tj%39

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Had a good idea for the new software programs--both will have a button called the "HOT LIST". It's similar to the 2.5 button now, but as always--vastly improved.

The 2.5L was meant to get you likely contenders on your screen in a hurry--from the entire card. By "likely contenders" they were horses that had shown some early speed, or maintained contact with the field one of last two. All that was for was to get rid of the riff raff of the equine kingdom.

Now I went one better--HOT LIST screen gets you every horse that was less than 3 lengths back\ 1st 2 calls--T/J WIN 30%+ COMBINED--today BACK IN 30 DAYS.

You don't have to use it....but it will come in handy for claimers and lower level races--trust me on that

Was looking at a few cards so far:

TUP

4TH TRIBAL ZEN 6-1 Just looks like a likely winner to me

MVR

1ST HAT IN HAND 20-1 Dropping, stretching out for this, blinkers added--solid trainer numbers--what's not to like.

7TH V.I. DANCER 10-1 what is going on here with HOARDER? Hell I don't know what to make of this race--Did Diodoro sneak over to MVR from Turf Paradise? This race is total chaos--you got horses coming out from everywhere I'll make a small bet on 'DANCER because who knows what's going to happen--or what price he's gonna be at

seems like everything you do i've done. if BL1-BL2 is beaten lengths? toss it
i found it not very useful plus you can use other factors

for late energy 6f is like a route at that track. i tossed the 2,4,9,10, avg e1,e2,late 8 had by far best energy

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by ebcorde

seems like everything you do i've done. if BL1-BL2 is beaten lengths? toss it
i found it not very useful plus you can use other factors

for late energy 6f is like a route at that track. i tossed the 2,4,9,10, avg e1,e2,late 8 had by far best energy

Hmmm....where to begin? BL-1 & BL-2 isn't useful at some tracks, Eb, but vital at others--which I'm sure you know.

The question about HOARDER wasn't his abilities---he just won a $20K race and today was entered for $8K or whatever the purse was. At that point yours and my calculations are useless--we had to decide what the heck that horse was doing there--I decided wrong and it cost me $900.

[NorCalGreg]

AQ

6TH PLAY UNIFIED 3-1


In the 8th the numbers say Englehart's MACHO MIAH 15-1 deserves a little more respect- at a square price.

Also exacta- keying the up with main dangers FOOKYSTORY 4-1 & MOLLICA 5-2

--And a couple Maidens at GGF look interesting with various angles:

4TH LUCKY K J 15-1

8TH ADAPTABILITY 9-2

The "Showvivor" contest at SA....anyone playing that? It just started so you can jump on into it if you feel like it.

I picked CARLOS DANGEROUS 4-1 in the 7TH ...not because I like his chances---because his name is so cool

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I picked CARLOS DANGEROUS 4-1 in the 7TH ...not because I like his chances---because his name is so cool

Weiner! Weiner!