*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

I think PA gave him the go ahead I'll get on him about it!

He doesn't seem to think anyone would be interested. If you are, let him know

[NorCalGreg]

a "movement"

I'm still trying to figure EMD's post:

Bottom line, if I bet $34 to win and the horse paid $75, that's still value

As far as a "User's Group"....don't we already have that here?

Hear me now.....and listen to me later---this is everyone that's going to post.

Most users are just not comfortable with posting, or they're wanted felons, or

just flat out don't care to post. That's perfectly fine, so why start a boojie

User's Group for the half dozen that already post here?

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

a "movement"

I'm still trying to figure EMD's post:

Bottom line, if I bet $34 to win and the horse paid $75, that's still value

As far as a "User's Group"....don't we already have that here?

Hear me now.....and listen to me later---this is everyone that's going to post.

Most users are just not comfortable with posting, or they're wanted felons, or

just flat out don't care to post. That's perfectly fine, so why start a boojie

User's Group for the half dozen that already post here?

To keep the "undesirables" out It would limit a lot of the BS

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

To keep the "undesirables" out It would limit a lot of the BS

Okay

Greenie mentioned his Alzheimer's has developed into the advanced stages, and unfortunately remembers nothing....so here is a Belmont LATE/00 play today--the play has been on a win/lose/win/lose track for a while...it lost with JET BLACK last out, so is due to win today--click the LATE button...look for a horse that led--or "00" beaten lengths---there's your play--
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[jk3521]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

a "movement"


As far as a "User's Group"....don't we already have that here?

Hear me now.....and listen to me later---this is everyone that's going to post.

Most users are just not comfortable with posting, or they're wanted felons, or

just flat out don't care to post. That's perfectly fine, so why start a boojie

User's Group for the half dozen that already post here?

That's true, plus if you allow only users to post, you lose a way of attracting new "Pace-View Cappers". You could keep in touch with us guys through your Twitter account, though, how about that? And how did you find out I was a wanted felon ?

[NorCalGreg]

Once again....here is the TOP-4 ABILITY play that some folks just can't seem to remember--even though it's been throwing profits from day one.

Click on 2.5L---sort by ABILITY--any horse in the TOP 4 @ 10-1 or better is a play, provided you place a conditional wager of 9-1 MINIMUM (that way you collect on anything paying $20.00+) Trust me--this is what you want to do,even though it will kill you when your wager isn't accepted--horse wins paying $17-$18. Gotta draw the line somewhere but it's really your choice.

I have to take off so didn't get a chance to go through the rest of the cards--this is one @ BTP. Trainer wins 15%---horse has a dirt route win @ this track, is 15-1 ML and checks out for a bet--NCG
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[NorCalGreg]

Had a little time to look at what was happening with the ponies today. Saw a nice TOOOOOOZZZZZZZZ exacta @ RPX in the 5th race. You all remember the Tooz right?

BEL
1ST SUMMER OF JOY 6-1
5TH BUSTIN THE BANK 20-1

GPW
9TH BIG DARLING 6-1

PEN
7TH DANGEROUS TYPE 8-1

RET
9TH MY TEXAS CHROME 20-1

SAX
8TH MISS BIG STUFF 7-2

....and the Tooz exacta @ RPX 5TH Race:

[FakeNameChanged]

Greg, What's a Tooz exacta?

[johnhannibalsmith]

I think that learning to read past performances for the first time as a teenager was easier than trying to acclimate to incorporating software into the process.

Damn, finally got my paws on opening day PPs for TuP and going through them and then comparing what I see in those and to what pops up when I push buttons on the program and make sense of it all is a challenge for me. I probably need to spend more time just fully understanding all of the functions and their relevance to each event or possible scenario, but this fleabag old mutt here appears to have just about officially turned off the ability to learn new things. At least readily and effectively.

Enjoying it though, I think.

Thanks Greg!

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

a "movement"

I'm still trying to figure EMD's post:

Bottom line, if I bet $34 to win and the horse paid $75, that's still value

As far as a "User's Group"....don't we already have that here?

Hear me now.....and listen to me later---this is everyone that's going to post.

Most users are just not comfortable with posting, or they're wanted felons, or

just flat out don't care to post. That's perfectly fine, so why start a boojie

User's Group for the half dozen that already post here?

Hey Ncg,

What I meant was :

There was $34 to win on this horse and he paid 150/1 to win. If I bet $34 on him, he'd still pay about 74/1.

I substituted (and erred) by speaking dollars , not odds.

Point was $34 to win on a 74/1 is still value in a short field. That's all.

My bad!

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Greg, What's a Tooz exacta?

Any old Raider fan will tell you the "Toooz" is the late JOHN MATUZAK-- former Raider great, and actor after his career was over.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

I think that learning to read past performances for the first time as a teenager was easier than trying to acclimate to incorporating software into the process.

Damn, finally got my paws on opening day PPs for TuP and going through them and then comparing what I see in those and to what pops up when I push buttons on the program and make sense of it all is a challenge for me. I probably need to spend more time just fully understanding all of the functions and their relevance to each event or possible scenario, but this fleabag old mutt here appears to have just about officially turned off the ability to learn new things. At least readily and effectively.

Enjoying it though, I think.

Thanks Greg!

Well thank you sir. I don't need to tell you what a crazy speed track TUP is--what's interesting is that LATE/EARLY play works like stealing money there. We'll have to play the first few days and see how it's going--when it gets to be 114 in the shade and that dirt track is like cement--the water truck sprays that mist that vaporizes in two minutes....that's TUP RACING

Always wondered....is top rider Scott Stevens related to Gary Stevens?

And how do jockeys with no agent get any mounts at all? Does anyone know if there is a minumum rider's pay? I'm guessing there is---but as with everything in life--there are probably side deals, bypassing any min for jockeys desperate enough. There are certain semi-shady trainers that ONLY use brand X jockeys---and a few are @ TUP.

Wonder why there has never been a tell-all expos`e book about the hidden stories in horse racing? Who wouldn't be interested in reading that?

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Well thank you sir. I don't need to tell you what a crazy speed track TUP is--what's interesting is that LATE/EARLY play works like stealing money there. We'll have to play the first few days and see how it's going--when it gets to be 114 in the shade and that dirt track is like cement--the water truck sprays that mist that vaporizes in two minutes....that's TUP RACING

Always wondered....is top rider Scott Stevens related to Gary Stevens?

And how do jockeys with no agent get any mounts at all? Does anyone know if there is a minumum rider's pay? I'm guessing there is---but as with everything in life--there are probably side deals, bypassing any min for jockeys desperate enough. There are certain semi-shady trainers that ONLY use brand X jockeys---and a few are @ TUP.

Wonder why there has never been a tell-all expos`e book about the hidden stories in horse racing? Who wouldn't be interested in reading that?

Scott is Gary's older and more talented brother.

Jocks with no agent are usually the ones that could make a lot more money getting paid for morning work as a gallop boy/girl, but instead spend two-thirds of the morning galloping/working bad/slow/sore/layoff horses for the mount instead of the cash. Then the moment that those horses are fit enough to win or do a lick of good or shed the sore horse label, then these riders get shitcanned for someone with an agent that sees easy pickins. All riders get paid a mount fee, up to around $60 now I think at TuP, with top placings making out better with a percentage of the pot.

Working backwards, I've always had a loose policy about the opening weeks at TuP. I try not to bet much. So often it just seems like horses need a race over the track. Some just need a race period. And usually the surface has been as torn up as it gets at any point during the meet prior to horses moving back in and without racing in the afternoons with water and that hot sun beating on it, it takes a few days of pounding, watering, baking nine times a day to get compressed back to customary concrete status. It used to be a great angle betting a horse back in its second time over the track that meet after getting dusted at a short price in its first try over the track. Figuring out which ones are going to go that route the first time and betting against them too and catching both ends of the scenario always gave me a lot more trouble, but have gotten a few good ones; just don't think they made up for missing a bunch of others.

This is one reason I wanted to make sure I got off my ass and gave this a try at the outset. It's kind of my time to test a little and be in mostly observation mode. My hope is that a few of these horses that pop on a few of your prominent angles (mostly the power number and early pace heavy formulas) and the betting reflects it fall victim to the 'need a race over the strip' theory and then second time around they DON'T pop, at least as vibrantly, and the betting reflects that too. Try to catch them once people are getting off the train instead of on it, I guess.

Anyway, thanks again, hope the mail arrived and looking forward to seeing what you come up with for the next few days. Meanwhile, I'm going to return to getting dizzy from bouncing between three screens trying to figure out what I'm looking at and how to come up with something for the trip down the hill tomorrow.

[green80]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Well thank you sir. I don't need to tell you what a crazy speed track TUP is--what's interesting is that LATE/EARLY play works like stealing money there. We'll have to play the first few days and see how it's going--when it gets to be 114 in the shade and that dirt track is like cement--the water truck sprays that mist that vaporizes in two minutes....that's TUP RACING

Always wondered....is top rider Scott Stevens related to Gary Stevens?

And how do jockeys with no agent get any mounts at all? Does anyone know if there is a minumum rider's pay? I'm guessing there is---but as with everything in life--there are probably side deals, bypassing any min for jockeys desperate enough. There are certain semi-shady trainers that ONLY use brand X jockeys---and a few are @ TUP.

Wonder why there has never been a tell-all expos`e book about the hidden stories in horse racing? Who wouldn't be interested in reading that?

Jocks without an agent get mount from trainers or owners that name them up or from other agents when their jocks have mounts in the race. Some owners and trainers like to name certain jocks on their horses. If a jock has some ability, word gets out and usually gets enough mounts agent or not but most of the decent jocks have agents to take that part of workload off.

The min. riders pay is $60 bucks around here for the lowest level races. It increases according to the purse up to about 120 bucks for a 100k race. The jock also gets 10% of the winners share of the purse and 5% for a 2nd or 3rd. (the % is either/or not both). There are side deals made but they are not common. I know of an instance where a jock was kicking the trainer 5% of his 10% share on wins in exchange for riding all this trainers live horses. Most of the time a jock will gallop or work a trainers horses free if he can ride them when they run. It is also not unusual to buy the jockey a $20 or more win ticket on the horse he's riding.

Not writing a tell all book, but I can answer any questions about what I have seen in 30+ years of racing.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Any old Raider fan will tell you the "Toooz" is the late JOHN MATUZAK-- former Raider great, and actor after his career was over.

I know who Mutuzak was. What was his exacta?