the 'Morning Line' is supposed to 'cap the Public, not be a 'Selection'!!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Come on Vic! I’m a serious player too, but your description is loaded with all sorts of generalities.

What about the obvious condition changes that affect the opening and closing odds line beyond any M/L odds?
A) A single Scratch in a race – can throw the entire M/L out of kilter
B) Dramatic changes in the track condition – the M/L is normally based on a fast/firm conditions.
C) Obvious pre-race physicality issues – No M/L developer will have that information –
Unless of course he called the CA physic hot-line. (Who BTW refuses to provide winning lottery numbers)

Your horse may have been bet down individually, but if it looked that good there are still many ways to take advantage with some Vertical bets. I’ve turned quite a few odds on choices into Top Keys for some excellent high value Tris & Supers.

anyone following along?
Parx r7 coming up next
is the 5/2 ml fav - and there's No Way they'll be favored, come post

TBF, I don't think 95% of players have a clue who to land on... taking some action in DD, some on ...

I'd say is a bit 'cold' considering connections and morning line.

(if I had a clue) I'd toss the completely from Exactas...
We'll see if the public feels 'anchored' to including them...

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

anyone following along?
Parx r7 coming up next
is the 5/2 ml fav - and there's No Way they'll be favored, come post

TBF, I don't think 95% of players have a clue who to land on... taking some action in DD, some on ...

I'd say is a bit 'cold' considering connections and morning line.

(if I had a clue) I'd toss the completely from Exactas...
We'll see if the public feels 'anchored' to including them...

I would consider the here also. Poor break and wide in debut. Moves up off deceptively good race.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I would consider the here also. Poor break and wide in debut. Moves up off deceptively good race.

I like her.

Not sure why she's so cold on the DD. Maybe again, it's the ML??
Not necessarily a 'bad' factor to being so cold in doubles, but makes me think twice...

Pletcher to Taylor, Trip excuse, Sharp recent work, Big Price... a lot to like as an 'include'...


are mildly interesting as well...


likely favored

[mikesal57]

I also have the 8 along with the 2....

[mikesal57]

2019 stats has the average ML Rank 1 winners at 34%

Parx comes in at 27%


people will always bet low ML odds

So where would you like to play serious money at?

[Robert Fischer]

11 top / bottom of 457

$2plc $10shw 11 ... keeping it simple

[toddbowker]

Doing the line is a lot harder that it looks. I both handicapped the card and did the morning line at Canterbury for several years back in the day (I hope Ron's stats don't go back that far ... LOL).

My handicapping selection stats were excellent, but I was never happy with my ML odds compared to the final odds. I felt like I got better over time, but separating how I would bet the race as opposed to predicting how the public would bet the race was a challenge I never quite mastered.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by toddbowker

Doing the line is a lot harder that it looks. I both handicapped the card and did the morning line at Canterbury for several years back in the day (I hope Ron's stats don't go back that far ... LOL).

My handicapping selection stats were excellent, but I was never happy with my ML odds compared to the final odds. I felt like I got better over time, but separating how I would bet the race as opposed to predicting how the public would bet the race was a challenge I never quite mastered.

I think the general public leans more heavily towards trainers and jockeys than the typical serious horse player. Not that serious players don't consider those things, especially if there's a known trainer pattern or jockey/trainer combo involved. But serious players usually start with the horse and less serious players tend to start with the connections. That was always my experience talking to players in NYC OTBs for years. So if you are going to make a ML, imo you are going to have to pay more attention to the top riders and trainers than you might in your own handicapping.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think the general public leans more heavily towards trainers and jockeys than the typical serious horse player. Not that serious players don't consider those things, especially if there's a known trainer pattern or jockey/trainer combo involved. But serious players usually start with the horse and less serious players tend to start with the connections. That was always my experience talking to players in NYC OTBs for years. So if you are going to make a ML, imo you are going to have to pay more attention to the top riders and trainers than you might in your own handicapping.

The tote board doesn't represent people...it represents DOLLARS. It may be true that most of the horseplayers lean more heavily towards the horses' connections...but these misguided horseplayers have only a minor effect on the tote board. The tote board today is primarily affected by the SERIOUS bettors, who -- although outnumbered -- still account for the lion's share of the betting action.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The tote board doesn't represent people...it represents DOLLARS. It may be true that most of the horseplayers lean more heavily towards the horses' connections...but these misguided horseplayers have only a minor effect on the tote board. The tote board today is primarily affected by the SERIOUS bettors, who -- although outnumbered -- still account for the lion's share of the betting action.

I get what you are saying and agree, but I think at the margin, jockey/trainer gets bet heavier than the typical serious horse player expects in their own thinking when they handicap.

You even see it when former great trainers decline and stop winning as much. Their horses often continue to take extra money for years. Their ROI will sometimes be terrible because of the extra "name" money they attract.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The tote board doesn't represent people...it represents DOLLARS. It may be true that most of the horseplayers lean more heavily towards the horses' connections...but these misguided horseplayers have only a minor effect on the tote board. The tote board today is primarily affected by the SERIOUS bettors, who -- although outnumbered -- still account for the lion's share of the betting action.

Good observation!
And among those "Serious" players (who just might have the most to lose) are the connections - the insiders who have the MOST information about the animals flesh and blood in their care.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I like her.

Not sure why she's so cold on the DD. Maybe again, it's the ML??
Not necessarily a 'bad' factor to being so cold in doubles, but makes me think twice...

Pletcher to Taylor, Trip excuse, Sharp recent work, Big Price... a lot to like as an 'include'...


are mildly interesting as well...


likely favored

BUT on the other had: (if I had a clue) I'd toss the completely from Exactas...
We'll see if the public feels 'anchored' to including them...

The #1/1a entry went off as 2nd choice and was certainly a nice Key with the others you liked!

Results:

Race # 7 = 9-1-11-10 = Some real nice Vertical returns w/the #1 Keyed & the favored #11

POS	#	Horse	                 Win	Place	Show
1st:	9	Philadelphia Belle	$49.40	$19.60	$10.00
2nd:	1	Rolls Royce Joyce		$3.80	$2.60
3rd:	11	Congrats Answer			        $2.80
4th:	10	Quiet Please	
		
•	$2.00 EXACTA 9-1       $240.20
•	$2.00 TRIFECTA 9-1-11         $819.40
•	$2.00 SUPERFECTA 9-1-11-10        $19,484.40
 

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Nitro

The #1/1a entry went off as 2nd choice and was certainly a nice Key with the others you liked!

Results:

Race # 7 = 9-1-11-10 = Some real nice Vertical returns w/the #1 Keyed & the favored #11

POS	#	Horse	                 Win	Place	Show
1st:	9	Philadelphia Belle	$49.40	$19.60	$10.00
2nd:	1	Rolls Royce Joyce		$3.80	$2.60
3rd:	11	Congrats Answer			        $2.80
4th:	10	Quiet Please	
		
•	$2.00 EXACTA 9-1       $240.20
•	$2.00 TRIFECTA 9-1-11         $819.40
•	$2.00 SUPERFECTA 9-1-11-10        $19,484.40
 

wish I had the balls to go 'deep' and spread in that race.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Come on Vic! I’m a serious player too, but your description is loaded with all sorts of generalities.

What about the obvious condition changes that affect the opening and closing odds line beyond any M/L odds?
A) A single Scratch in a race – can throw the entire M/L out of kilter
B) Dramatic changes in the track condition – the M/L is normally based on a fast/firm conditions.
C) Obvious pre-race physicality issues – No M/L developer will have that information –
Unless of course he called the CA physic hot-line. (Who BTW refuses to provide winning lottery numbers)

Your horse may have been bet down individually, but if it looked that good there are still many ways to take advantage with some Vertical bets. I’ve turned quite a few odds on choices into Top Keys for some excellent high value Tris & Supers.

All true. Doesn't make my post untrue.

[raazaca]

Hello can someone tell me a service that indicates True ML, differences between ML and True ML, Thanks