Jerry Hollendorfer Banned from Santa Anita

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

For a barn with 400 horses, 6 horse deaths doesnt sound like an indictment to me.

I have seen 100 horse barns lose 3 in a month, and most people here consider this person to be one of the best horseman around.

I think you’re woefully Off in your math skills. I’ll work on getting you some numbers later. In the meantime, I’m wanting to hear who the great horseman is that had three die on the track in one month

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Then add the fact that Kochees was a horse who was a voided claim/vet list from Hollendorfer on May 25 and dead the next month

Kochees was a voided claim the day he was injured, not in a previous race.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Kochees was a voided claim the day he was injured, not in a previous race.

I checked and you’re right. I stand corrected, thanks.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I checked and you’re right. I stand corrected, thanks.

Well played FF, nice reply...

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I think you’re woefully Off in your math skills. I’ll work on getting you some numbers later. In the meantime, I’m wanting to hear who the great horseman is that had three die on the track in one month

it happened in 2003....the guy is a great horseman so need to slander him, was just random bad luck. small sample sizes should not be used for making conclusions.

my math skilzz suck, i am sure your right.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

it happened in 2003....the guy is a great horseman so need to slander him, was just random bad luck. small sample sizes should not be used for making conclusions.

my math skilzz suck, i am sure your right.

Hollendorfer claims “over 100” horses, which I assume is closer to 100 than 400.

————-

From Newsday article:

It was the 30th death since the racing season began Dec. 26. The track closes for the season Sunday.

Hollendorfer couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

However, he told the Daily Racing Form, "I'm training over 100 horses right now. Santa Anita didn't want me stay on the grounds. My opinion was that was a premature thing to do. I thought it was extreme. Now I have to step away for a while."

—————

Now to try to find what the fatality rate is in both racing and training since the only number frequently published is for racing. Using the latter number and JH’s number of starts, he’s about 9x the national average.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Hollendorfer claims “over 100” horses, which I assume is closer to 100 than 400.

————-

From Newsday article:

It was the 30th death since the racing season began Dec. 26. The track closes for the season Sunday.

Hollendorfer couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

However, he told the Daily Racing Form, "I'm training over 100 horses right now. Santa Anita didn't want me stay on the grounds. My opinion was that was a premature thing to do. I thought it was extreme. Now I have to step away for a while."

—————

Now to try to find what the fatality rate is in both racing and training since the only number frequently published is for racing. Using the latter number and JH’s number of starts, he’s about 9x the national average.

I thought I read it was 400 but ok lets use 100, and I assume that meant nationally and not just santa anita.

So 100 x 5 times to the track for works or gallops (assuming 2 days off) = 500

Lets say out of 100 that 25 start per week so over a month that is 100.

So 600 events x 6 months equals 3600 events. 6 deaths. 6/3600 =.16% of the time a horse has died. Even if as you claim there are a few more then its still a very small percentage.

I think the whole thing is ovrerblown. Dang Pletcher had like 4-5 die over the summer some years back.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I thought I read it was 400 but ok lets use 100, and I assume that meant nationally and not just santa anita.

So 100 x 5 times to the track for works or gallops (assuming 2 days off) = 500

Lets say out of 100 that 25 start per week so over a month that is 100.

So 600 events x 6 months equals 3600 events. 6 deaths. 6/3600 =.16% of the time a horse has died. Even if as you claim there are a few more then its still a very small percentage.

I think the whole thing is ovrerblown. Dang Pletcher had like 4-5 die over the summer some years back.

Pletcher’s didn’t die of breakdowns on track. Fishy as hell, with a slew of intestinal issues wiping out horses, then years later around big brown time he had a slew of rare liver diseases, so we could speculate on that, but they weren’t snapping their condyle sand sesamoids.

JH has had 387 starts this year so a more exact number can be found. I’d still like to find more real numbers than in your exercise.

[classhandicapper]

In any statistical study, there are going to some random extremes in the data that stick out, but they don't necessarily mean anything. That's the nature of probabilities.

Without actual evidence of neglect or irresponsibility you can't assign blame to someone for what could easily just be a run of very good or bad luck without being irresponsible yourself.

That does not mean there isn't evidence. It just means that all I am seeing is a guy that could very easily be the victim of a bad string of luck getting tossed out of his career. If there is no evidence, I'd take them to court and sue the shit out of them. If there is evidence and it's being suppressed, we have a right to know what it is so we don't speculate like this.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

In any statistical study, there are going to some random extremes in the data that stick out, but they don't necessarily mean anything. That's the nature of probabilities.

Without actual evidence of neglect or irresponsibility you can't assign blame to someone for what could easily just be a run of very good or bad luck without being irresponsible yourself.

That does not mean there isn't evidence. It just means that all I am seeing is a guy that could very easily be the victim of a bad string of luck getting tossed out of his career. If there is no evidence, I'd take them to court and sue the shit out of them. If there is evidence and it's being suppressed, we have a right to know what it is so we don't speculate like this.

Does any racetrack have the right to tell any trainer to remove his horses from there premises.

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Does any racetrack have the right to tell any trainer to remove his horses from there premises.

Of course.

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by castaway01

It's a shame that all of these arguments over trainers and their crimes always come down to "Well, they didn't ban this other even-sleazier guy, so how can they ban this guy who is only moderately sleazy?"

You mean like Kevin Patterson, who has now won with his last fifteen consecutive starters? (prior record having been 14)

Who, in his first stint as a trainer (1992-2001) couldn't even reach 6% wins
(13/223) before running his horses in somebody else's name from 2002 to 2009 and then (surely for having learned so much from that person that) his second training career has him winning steadily at a 37% clip over 10 years.

Who, in the present, has won with 52 of his last 100 starters at Mountaineer.

Who, in the present, has won with 46 of his last 100 starters at Charles Town.

Who is 1/14 at Delaware

Who is 4/30 at Laurel

Who is 0/3 at Mahoning

Who is 4/22 at Parx

Who is 22/100 at Penn

Who is 2/8 at Pimlico

Who is 0/1 at Presque Isle

Who is 9/25 at Timonium

Who is 2/31 at Wyoming Downs



One wonders still again why anyone even bothers scrutinizing Jerry Hollendorfer, whose place in the limelight almost scrutinizes itself.

Take note of the guys who suddenly and without explanation begin doing much better than before. Those who used to be 30% trainers who are now 18-22% trainers aren't the concerns in modern North American racing.


Maybe it's the air in West Virginia??

[bob60566]

Maybe West Virginia is less stringent in there drug testing, compared to San Anita. ?

[FantasticDan]

Twitter

[NY BRED]

again, let's see what happens at Saratoga AND Belmont with the string of horses now being trained by Hollendorfer's assistant.


Presuming these tbreds survive, and/or prove competitive in all class levels Justice will prevail for for this trainer.

Further thought is ,no matter how this scenario plays out, this story would make a great story for the various cable networks, including ESPN,NBC Sports,and TVG..